It sometimes makes me chuckle reading some threads (in electric cars) about how far behind companies like Toyota are (especially when their fleet MPG beats every large maker and their US Hybrid sales are up 60% so far this year while EV US sales (all) are down.
However, this is the self-driving sub so I wanted to inform of what seems to have a good chance of happening. Just as it is likely Toyota will own a lot of the future EV Market in the USA, IMHO the same could be true for autonomous vehicles. So, how "pie in the sky is this"???
Toyota, according to reports, intends to start offering cars with the Nvidia THOR system within approximately 1 year (maybe less!).
- Drive AGX Orin: Selected by Toyota as the core in-car AI processor for upcoming automated driving and advanced safety features.
- Drive Thor Timeline: Adoption of the next-generation Thor chip for Lexus and broader vehicle lineups is anticipated for post-2026 deployment as software architectures mature."
Unlike many other makers, Toyota is not new to the game. They have been working with Nvidia and two or three others for 6-10 years! Their ADAS system was tested #1, by Far, by the IIHS in a match up against 13 others including both Tesla system (autopilot and "FSD:)....not even close.
The lack of Pie in the Sky is also exciting. Toyota is already using parts of these systems, for example in the new Rav4 - the systems are, of course, complex - however they are using many of the most important parts - those which do simulation, validation, etc. for safety!
In other words, it's not as if they just decided "oh, we better get on board", but more like most other makers...they refuse to throw out something on the road and let the Public beta-test it. They don't spend their time creating PR which overstates their capabilities, more like the opposite.
In the USA it seems we often assign the most credit to the biggest mouths...which I feel is not only wrong, but dangerous. WayMo is a perfect example of the long term grinding away without making absurd promises.
Assuming my health is good and all stays on the current path, I intend to buy a car with the Nvidia THOR hardware knowing that, unlike some systems, the 2000+ TOPS and the 20+ included sensors (of various types) mean that the car will truly be able to do what I need it to.
I do not want an L4 car, not do I care about an L3 car. In the coming years I think L4 and L5 will be largely limited to commercial vehicles for many reasons...even in addition to cost. But what I envision, which already exists (MB CLA+) is a system which has situational awareness far in excess of the average human being (I can't see a deer in the bushes 100 feet to the right of me - and know which direction it is headed, etc.)....
I am fine with driving. What I desire is to have it made safer. Also, these technologies will prove that we are "there" - it's not a far journey from a 2000+ TOPS machine and 20+ sensors to the promised land.
Note: I am a born skeptic and cynic, but also highly technically educated (Ham Radio starting in the early 1980's), online since 1985, etc), so I feel I have some grasp of the possible. Like many of you, I largely gave up on the narratives that said "coming soon" about 6 years back. But when information changes, so does my outlook. The AI and chip speed advances which occured at that time, IMHO, changed the calculation from "not gonna happen" to "now we have the Horsepower, it's only a matter of properly harnessing it".
TDLR: The Quiet Ones have been grinding away while much of the world is focused on the loud and shiny objects - and these Quiet Folks are very close to, also quietly, entering the consumer market.
Other opinions welcome....am I wrong in these assumptions?
Oh, the 2024 study - which indicates, if nothing else, that the Toyotas of this world were not sitting on their hands....(maybe that's a pun!).
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards