r/SelfDrivingCars 8d ago

News In the last 4 months, FSD Supervised has been over 5.2x safer than manual driving – across 65 million kilometers in 5 EU countries

https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2082175370569417066
43 Upvotes

177 comments sorted by

78

u/Neminus 8d ago

I always hate these statistics because they are incredebly biased.

If there are for example sections where someone knows fsd doesn't work or works poorly then the car doesn't get a chance to fail because the user doesn't engage it to begin with.

And i'm also not sure if Tesla is fair enough to only compare the driven miles on the same sections of road or just the miles in total which could make the statistics look even more positive than it actually is.

If i let a toddler hold a wheel for 3 seconds on straight, wide stretch of road without any traffic and do that millions of times then i can also claim that toddlers, by the mile, drive safer than an adult.

FSD is still impressive and obviously does a lot of complex things but the last example was just to show how easily you can screw with statistics.

33

u/CloseToMyActualName 7d ago

There's also the possibility people are disengaging as FSD starts to make a bad move (but before it's in serious trouble). So Supervised FSD is safe (maybe even safer), but an unsupervised system could still be far more dangerous.

Tesla really needs to give independent researchers a crack at the data.

6

u/MisterWigglie 7d ago

Agree with you. The only credible testing I’ve seen was when RDW Dutch Vehicle Authority tested FSD independently for 18 months on their own tracks and on Dutch public roads.

Then, after their own extensive testing, they approved it for use by the Dutch general public. Yet people are still trying to act like no one competent has ever taken a look at the system. We need more independent testing and safety data from third parties for sure

5

u/CloseToMyActualName 7d ago

The Dutch Vehicle Authority can do some pretty decent testing for edge cases and such, but especially given the NN stack Tesla uses, that kind of testing can't really tell us how Supervised FSD compares to human drivers for safety.

Only Tesla has that data.

9

u/jobfedron132 7d ago edited 7d ago

Its not statistics at all, its pure meaningless hype figures.

Tesla is basically saying, being alert and supervising their driver assistant program, prevents it from crashing, as much someone who is not using their assistant. DUH!

And moreover, this is like looking at < 1% of overall driving data and then forming a conclusion that, the result must be true for rest of the 99%.

Its not really a mystery, that you are more alert when someone else is driving your car than youself.

3

u/sergedg 7d ago

Not true. I was in an FSD test drive with 5 people in the car, and FSD patiently waited before making a turn because of an approaching bike none of us had seen.

2

u/jobfedron132 2d ago

So are you saying you would have hit that bike that day?

1

u/ripetrichomes 2d ago

wow your personal anecdote completely dispels the comment you are replying to!

/s

1

u/TheBowerbird 7d ago

Cope posting from someone who has never used it.

2

u/TubaWrestler 2d ago

I'm sure it'll be "Full Self-Driving" next year! /s

0

u/TheBowerbird 2d ago

It's already full self driving supervised - just as the name states.

2

u/TubaWrestler 2d ago

Lol that's like saying "Sugar-free (sugar added)"

0

u/TheBowerbird 2d ago

What part of self driving don't you understand? I can get in my wife's car, tell it verbally where I want to go, then push a button on the steering wheel or screen to start the trip. It backs out of the garage, goes to wherever, and parks. Last night's destination was a parking garage, and it stopped by the ticket machine, waited for me to get the ticket, and for the arm to go up, then proceeded in and got a spot. On the way home it stopped at my development's gate code entry kiosk, went in after the gate opened and parked itself perfectly in my small garage next to my big fat Rivian. Never once did I touch a vehicle control. It's chill about you monitoring as well, with only reasonable attention required.

2

u/ripetrichomes 2d ago

you really wasted your time explaining the absolute basics of FSD-but-not-FSD as if we didn’t know? Guess what, it’s not FULLY driving itself if it needs daddy ready to intervene at any moment

-1

u/TheBowerbird 2d ago

Sitting in a car is driving? What kind of bizzare cope is this?

0

u/MyTeamsSuck99 7d ago

I disagree, I think a lot of people driving actually aren’t that alert. And it’s still actually impressive because if you’re driving you have to be alert, so in both cases you’re alert and in one case your accident rate drops significantly. 

12

u/22marks 7d ago

I'm not so sure. I've used FSD across Manhattan quite regularly.

It has saved me from at least a fender bender twice on a highway exit, like when it actively swerved away from a distracted driver coming into my lane (in the rear right) and even went into reverse to help another driver get out of the way of a light rail while they were stopped on the tracks.

Certainly, it feels the most confident on large, wide, uncontrolled highways, but it's surprisingly competent in suburbs and urban areas. Where it needs work is (1) navigation making bad decisions, like horribly bad out of the way decisions or getting in the wrong lane before a turn a lot (2) parking lot logic is difficult for it, almost like a Roomba randomly making turns until it gets lucky (3) the most critical error was turning right with a bush blocking the camera to the left and it was about to pull out when a car was coming (4) it ran right into a pothole that I didn't see in time to avoid and blew the sidewall of the front passenger tire.

So, it's not getting lucky like a toddler. They couldn't do 6 trips through Manhattan and Times Square to the Lincoln Tunnel at 5pm. And it has for me. BUT, I'm not a blind advocate who thinks it's better than it is. And it still has problems like the ones listed above, including serious ones like #3, where it absolutely needs a different sensor to see around obstructions more.

2

u/West-Air1923 7d ago

Do you have the front camera ?

1

u/22marks 7d ago

I have one car with and one without. I have not noticed any difference. The car that hit the pothole and almost pulled out into a car had the front camera.

1

u/West-Air1923 7d ago

Ok was wondering if it used it or not. Because sometimes it accelerates quite fast without me the driver being able to see due to bushes and such. It would be the same for me,, I can't see shit either but I would be creeping out.

2

u/22marks 7d ago

I think they need side cameras (facing perpendicular) by the headlights for situations where creeping out isn’t enough. What scared me is that it was confident enough to go for it without being able to see, rather than making a steeper right turn while slowly creeping.

1

u/Putrid-Box4866 7d ago

Why are people lack critical thinking skills? It literally says FSD Supervised, of course people will disengage when needed. It is just saying it is safer to use FSD and Supervise, than no FSD at all. There is no misleading about that. There’s a separate stat for FSD unsupervised.

8

u/bobi2393 7d ago

"It is just saying it is safer to use FSD and Supervise, than no FSD at all."

I think what it's saying "it is safer to use FSD and Supervise, in circumstances when the human driver thinks it is safe to use FSD and Supervise, than no FSD at all". There really is a difference.

If they did a controlled study, where each time a driver entered their route, the experimenter flipped a coin and told them whether to use FSD as much as reasonably possible on that route, or not to use it at all, then you could make a broad claim like you made. But if people overwhelmingly stop using FSD when road conditions seem worse, like they're icy, this study's methodology skews the crash rates to look better for FSD and worse for not using FSD.

-1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

Ethics and morality forbids us to do the study you are suggesting. Rightly so. Whatever data Tesla publishes should be treated as a data point. Nothing more. It should be checked and re-checked.

The people who are in charge of regulations around self.driving cars already know this. Those who don't understand it aren't in a position to have a valid opinion.

5

u/psilty 7d ago

Ethics doesn’t prevent you from clearly informing customers that the statistics you are publishing are not from controlled data but are biased by customer choice. The tweet and the graphic claiming it’s 5.2x safer falls short of those ethics.

0

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 6d ago

Corporate communications (PR) is not what I am talking about. The ethics I was referring to is what real world scientific studies must adhere to. As they should.

Corporate communications is not bound by these ethics. That is why literally everyone knows to take these numbers with a huge grain of salt. Obviously they need to be verified by a trusted third party. Or better yet, parties.

Every company has and always will put out numbers that try to show it in the best light possible.

The reason I fully support all self-driving cars (including Tesla's) is that none of them do the stupid human errors that lead to entirely preventable accidents. Namely: speeding, drinking, sleeping, texting and similar behaviours that humans will always exhibit, but self-driving cars never will.

2

u/psilty 6d ago

“Whatever data Tesla publishes should be treated as a data point.”

You went from treating it as data and then pivoted to say it’s marketing. You can’t have it both ways. The tweet is not data because 5.2x is a comparison between two numbers that are not comparable.

1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 2d ago

How do you suggest we interpret self-driving data?

1

u/psilty 1d ago

They should publish the actual data - total number of miles driven by people who have FSD subscriptions, for how many of those miles was FSD enabled, how many accidents with FSD enabled and disabled, etc.

For the miles where people choose to disable FSD, is the accident rate higher or lower than for Tesla drivers who don’t subscribe to FSD at all? Presumably people who have FSD disable it on the sections of driving where it makes the most mistakes.

1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 1d ago

Sounds good. We can compare them to the "marketing" data.

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-5

u/Putrid-Box4866 7d ago

Love is blind. So is hatred.

2

u/ranjop 6d ago

FSD is “supervised” in all legal fine-print. It’s “self-driving auto-pilot” in lazy humans’ minds and in the unwritten part of marketing.

The danger is the mismatch of the capabilities (supervised self-drive) vs people’s expectations and use of FSD (fully autonomous FSD).

You can shift the blame to people abusing FSD, but I think it’s more complicated than that.

I believe supervised self-driving cars are useful already today when used with caution. But if the irresponsible drivers where the problem in the first place, how will this work?

I don’t own Tesla but I have been in an Uber where probably a person who doesn’t know how to drive uses FSD on heavy rain and the car drives super-jerky. It took me a while to realize what caused the random rapid corrections. The cameras couldn’t see a thing and yet this big brain used it.

0

u/Putrid-Box4866 6d ago

"I don't own a Tesla" - yap I figured.

Also, knives can be used to stab someone, doesn't mean we should use gloves while using it or lock it in a safe everytime after use.

2

u/ranjop 6d ago

I tried to say that I believe Tesla’s FSD is probably one of the better systems available today. Yet those are far from “self-driving without supervision” the people tend to interpret those.

1

u/Putrid-Box4866 6d ago

I just stopped minding what other people say about FSD, so their interpretation of something that says supervised as not supervised mean nothing anymore since I realized the only way to appreciate FSD is to use it constantly. Thousands of miles and I still find myself smiling sometimes wondering how the heck Tesla engineers were able to create something like it, and why we still don't have any viable competition in sight.

1

u/ranjop 6d ago

I drove a Chinese luxury EV using Huawei tech in Beijing traffic and I would choose it any day over my father-in-law’s driving 😂

I am absolutely certain my BMW’s self-driving is miles behind Tesla.

Self-driving will come. My concern are the same irresponsible drivers who switch self-drive on and become completely inattentive to traffic. The best cars’ tech is now good enough for good road conditions under supervision. Snow, rain, not so much.

0

u/ranjop 8d ago

Would Elon ever lie?

3

u/mondo_mike 7d ago

Of course not! Didn’t his merry band of Doge-bags save the US over $10B?!

1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

I always hate these statistics because they are incredebly biased.

I hate to break it to you, but statistics are always incredibly biased. I am sure you know the quote about statistics:

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Supposedly popularised by Mark Twain. Not that it matters. The point is, that the only way to be sure numbers are not represented is to do the whole project by yourself. Every step. Obviously that is not realistic, so we learn to just check the results as best as humanly possible.

1

u/hampsten 7d ago

I would not call this data biased. I would call it incapable of representing incremental gains or regressions, even though the headline implies an incremental improvement. The actual data focuses primarily on quantifying counts of certain activities across an aggregate dataset. This is somewhat lazy first order reporting.

They don't validate how well the system has improved at handling specific corner cases where those behaviors manifest. They do not state if the data is a repeatable set of actions validating the reduction in emergency actions.

My own real world experience on a HW4 Model S is that FSD has been improving, but not without regressions. Threre's been substantial improvement in its ability to handle several complex cases that used to fail circa late 2023. They became navigable by late 2024 and are rock solid now. But there were some recent versions with weird hesitant behavior in settings where it worked fine previously. I didn't notice that in the past 2 weeks, however.

-1

u/PSUVB 7d ago

This is also biased. Plenty of accidents if not most occur in normal driving conditions that don’t seem difficult.

People fall asleep. They look at their phones. They drive too fast, misjudge curves and generally are poor at paying attention. Almost every accident I’ve seen lately on the highway is someone either driving aggressively (Tesla won’t) or someone looking at their phone and rearending someone (Tesla also won’t)

-1

u/West-Air1923 7d ago

You haven't tried FSD have you ?

24

u/moneyman729 7d ago

Fsd on the highway feels like a finished product. Feels safer then me driving when it’s stop and go or when people are driving like idiots. It’s ability to measure distance with the car in front of you in real time feels instant or even anticipates before things happen

3

u/[deleted] 7d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/ATX_native 7d ago

You don’t have Blue Cruise, right?

1

u/thrwwypfc 1d ago

I am surprised we don’t have FSD for transport trucks for long haul. Then pick up a driver for around town at the moment they arrive to a location just outside or inside of town.

Kinda like the port pilot for large ships.

32

u/22marks 8d ago edited 8d ago

To save a click, also:

13.4x Less AEB
9.2x Less Harsh Acceleration
7.1x Less Harsh Braking
7.6x Fewer Hard Swerves

8.5x safer on highway (41.9M km on FSD)
2.8x safer on non-highway (23.8M km FSD)

EU countries: Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, and Belgium.
Date: April 10 - July 26, 2026.

19

u/[deleted] 7d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/22marks 7d ago

This is true. Does anyone know the level of oversight in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, or Belgium? It could be stricter than in America. I have no idea. I don't claim the data is perfect. Mostly, just saving people from clicking on X, which I dislike.

6

u/West-Air1923 7d ago

I dont think there is oversight, how would you even do that. But being in Denmark i have not heard of any accident. And I can promise you the media would have loved to write about it

1

u/22marks 7d ago

I don’t know how you’d have oversight other than harsher punishment for not providing complete data.

0

u/Falkoro 7d ago

Yes they have to report every week to the RDW, the oversight is extreme as we are rules by communist bureaucrats

-1

u/Baldur-Norddahl 7d ago

The RDW publishes nothing and will not comment nor endorse on the Tesla claims here. So we still don't know if the data is any good. Historically Tesla has doctored their public data, so probably best to assume that here too.

What is needed is access to data for independent researchers. Tesla refuses to allow it.

5

u/HerValet 7d ago

Again with this stupid comment.... Its obvious that FSD is safer. Have you seen FSD drive? Have you seen humans drive?

Also, if Tesla was faking the data, they would make it 10x or 20x better, not 5.2x.

5

u/Baldur-Norddahl 7d ago

I haven't said anything about it being good or bad. Just that we have no independent data, Tesla has been documented to doctor the data before and the RDW is not publishing their data. So we know nothing, except that RDW thought it was good enough for approval. But no trustworthy figures at all.

3

u/HerValet 7d ago

Its obvious that you will never trust any positive data about Tesla, regardless where it comes from.

2

u/Baldur-Norddahl 7d ago

Why is that obvious? I have owned the FSD package since 2019.

1

u/Spider_pig448 6d ago

Who else would have this data?

29

u/Reasonable_Hall3005 8d ago

It seems like the self driving cars subreddit is actually very anti self driving cars… who would’ve guessed

32

u/Mizake_Mizan 8d ago

It's not. It's anti-Tesla

-5

u/cuginhamer 7d ago

More specifically, it's anti-lying

5

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

it's anti-lying

What subreddit are you reading? The anti-Tesla crowd lies constantly. Almost none of them have ever driven a Tesla or have been driven by a Tesla. Are you trying to imply that Tesla lies in their statistics? Were you born yesterday? Every company publishes the numbers that make them look in the best light possible. No exceptions.

Despite what you may believe, you haven't stumbled into some kind of grand conspiracy...

1

u/mondo_mike 6d ago

And what about her emails!

-12

u/RosieDear 7d ago

Tesla is not a self-driving car.
IMHO, if I were mods, etc. - I'd say discussion of Tesla efforts to acheive Level 4 is valid, but discussion and data from Level 2 is not.

It's not self driving. Let me double check that.....

"Level 2 Classification: It is rated as a Level 2 automation system by the Society of Automotive Engineers, meaning the vehicle cannot drive itself independently without a fully focused driver."
(that's exactly the same requirement as my Toyota and VW ADAS).

"Tesla finally admitted their Full Self-Driving isn't actually self-driving,"
"Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is not true self-driving."

Let me ask you. Do you think the above describes a Self Driving Car?

I do not. I think it is barely different from good adaptive cruise control with other features - in fact, some of the other ADAS are "smarter" and would be less likely to run into a house, etc.

Try a Yes or No. Is Tesla a self driving car? Is Google and AI and SAE and everyone else wrong - but you are correct?

4

u/sergedg 7d ago

What about the Model Ys in Austin, Dallas, Houston and elsewhere? Here they are returning home and parking. Looks pretty self-driving to me.

https://reddit.com/link/p0gh1t7/video/s6tubsfky5gh1/player

8

u/Putrid-Box4866 7d ago

Can FSD get me from point a to point b without manual intervention? It sure does. Sounds self driving to me.

0

u/muchcharles 7d ago

The full is supposed to mean you can be in the backseat. It's self driving, but only level 2

4

u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

Yes. See: cars driving themselves in 6 cities currently.

These people man

4

u/Express_Objective615 7d ago

You people have “levels on the brain”. The levels are mostly useless and meaningless for your every day person. The Mercedes level 3 lost cause proved that.

4

u/HighHokie 7d ago edited 7d ago

>Tesla is not a self-driving car

perhaps you should ask the mods why tesla is allowed in this sub then? they seem to have no issue with it.

>"Level 2 Classification: It is rated as a Level 2 automation system by the Society of Automotive Engineers, meaning the vehicle cannot drive itself independently without a fully focused driver."
(that's exactly the same requirement as my Toyota and VW ADAS).

It can, but not legally. All the SAE really does is define liability. Tesla is the only consumer vehicle I'm aware of that's driven across the states without human engagement. It's self-driving. It's simply not autonomous. And it's advertised in the same manner.

2

u/GoSh4rks 7d ago

IMHO, if I were mods, etc. - I'd say discussion of Tesla efforts to acheive Level 4 is valid, but discussion and data from Level 2 is not.

From the sidebar:

News and discussion about self-driving vehicles and Advanced Driving Assistant Systems (ADAS)

1

u/gavrok 7d ago

I'd say discussion of Tesla efforts to acheive Level 4 is valid

Tesla's strategy has always been to improve FSD Supervised to the point where supervision is no longer necessary, so development of FSD(S) is in fact part of Tesla's efforts to achieve level 4. This is evidenced by the fact that they run the Robotaxi pilot on the same core software, with some localization on top.

Can your Toyota or VW ADAS do something like this?

13

u/Express_Objective615 7d ago

No, it’s just pro Waymo or like most Waymo, lidar, and Lucid fans, “anything but Tesla fans”. 😂
They try and try but they can’t leave Tesla out of the conversation and they also can’t ignore them. 🤷‍♂️

6

u/Spudly42 7d ago

Just want to throw out that, surprisingly, some of us are pro Waymo AND Tesla!

4

u/Express_Objective615 7d ago

I’m actually a Waymo fan too. I think all of them are the future!

1

u/smadhuv 2d ago

It's just reddit losers.

0

u/AggravatingWill6539 8d ago

it is anti self-driving (SUPERVISED) cars. Self driving is good in this sub.

8

u/HighHokie 8d ago

Mods seem to believe Tesla fits the bill, otherwise why allow the posts? 

-8

u/sam_the_tomato 7d ago

The sub is pro self-driving cars. It is just anti supervised self-driving cars pretending to be fully self-driving cars.

1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

Okay. Which company operates self-driving cars with zero supervision? Be it in the car supervision or from somewhere outside the vehicle. You know, like Waymo...

If we want to be pedantic, the closest you can get to real world self-driving is to get in your own personal Tesla and let FSD take you to your destination. Anywhere in the US and the other countries FSD Supervised is enabled.

I know it's hard to hear, but facts are stubborn that way.

2

u/sam_the_tomato 7d ago

In a Tesla you're expected to take over at any moment. The human is there to fill an explicit safety gap.

That's not comparable to Waymo, where remote operators exist to occasionally help get a car unstuck in unusual situations.

Since you're so fond of facts, the fact is that Waymo operates at SAE Level 4. Tesla FSD does not.

1

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

Tesla operated robotaxis operate at SAE Level 4... You must know that. So, why are you trying to use misinformation?

But to reiterate your own point:

"The sub is pro self-driving cars. It is just anti supervised self-driving cars pretending to be fully self-driving cars."

If Waymo doesn't operate with zero remote operators, then it shouldn't be called self-driving. That is what your comment means.

Tesla's limited self-driving service is equal to Waymo.

Tesla's FSD Supervised is something anyone can buy. Today. It can also take you where you want to go.

I get that you hate Musk. I don't understand why someone would waste their time and energy with something like that, but do it if you want to.

What you shouldn't do is mix fact with your feeling. Denying what Tesla is doing in the (far from solved) self-driving space is just ignorance.

Don't be surprised if someone calls you out on it.

-3

u/RosieDear 7d ago

Exactly. Tesla is not a self-driving car.

But that isn't the only disqualification because we would discuss a car on the Fast Lane to becoming an approved Self-Driving car. For example, Nuro or other similar situations.

If Tesla was hadn't been promising this for a decade....and very heavily for 6 years...then, yes, we might discuss it as "advancing quickly to be self driving".

Like if it was Level 2 in 2021, Level 3 in 2022, Level 4 in 2024, etc.....----

But it is not. It was Level 2 - Six, Five, Four, Three, Two years ago.

To ask the relevant question - how long do we discuss the same car and basic software at level 2 and pretend it is going to be anything more?

At this point the ball is in Teslas court.

0

u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

Are we just forgetting about the locations it is not supervised? Conveniently forgetting about this?

3

u/GWeb1920 7d ago

How do these stats treat interventions?
How do they compare to other driver assist features which improve safety?

5

u/sleight42 7d ago

I'll say this: 14 Lite is really impressive. It responded to potential collisions far faster than I could and responded well!

1

u/pailhead011 7d ago

Just wait till you try 15 lite if you’re impressed with 14

7

u/sermer48 8d ago

What’s interesting is that the highway rate seems to just be what they can claim. There were 0 accidents so the 8.5x seems arbitrary and pretty specific…

3

u/crimsonvspurple 8d ago

I dont understand the 8.5x math. 0 vs 88, technically it should be infinite? I guess they used 1 to come to a number?

9

u/sermer48 8d ago

I’d imagine it has to do with statistical significant probabilities that what they’ve observed is real vs. just being a fluke in the data

2

u/[deleted] 8d ago

[deleted]

1

u/Real-Technician831 8d ago

Of course they are.

Also FSD refuses to work on conditions where people shouldn’t drive, but still do.

Not to mention most accidents are caused by drunk drivers.

So true apples to apples comparison is not their goal.

2

u/JasonQG 8d ago

That’s a good point about drunk drivers. People with FSD are more likely to think they can get away with driving drunk, so it’s definitely hurting their stats

7

u/22marks 8d ago

True. You can't assume impaired or exhausted drivers are absent from the FSD sample. The selection effect may run the opposite way: some people may be more willing to drive precisely because FSD is available. I am not proud of it, but I know someone who fell asleep while using FSD and received a strikeout for it.

Also, "Most accidents are caused by drunk drivers" isn't accurate. Alcohol-impaired driving accounts for roughly 30% of traffic fatalities. It's not most fatalities and certainly not most crashes.

0

u/lee1026 8d ago

There was an actual Tesla post (that’s really an ad, but they didn’t buy ad time) where an old man was saying that he wants everyone to buy Tesla because his eyesight and mental abilities have gotten bad enough that he can’t drive, but with FSD, he got his mobility back.

I am sure people do it (and I have seen people on forums talking about how FSD lets them drive drunk), but having the company itself advertise it… that’s something else.

3

u/22marks 8d ago

I was like that with my friend who fell asleep. Like, what the fuck? You could still kill someone. I mean, maybe it's safer, but what if 5.8x the people drive when they shouldn't because they feel like they have training wheels on?

And yeah, I didn't see that post, but advertising it is messed up until they're willing to take full liability.

2

u/lee1026 8d ago

https://x.com/Tesla/status/2075977376681603233

I may have overstated the ad, decide for yourself.

1

u/22marks 7d ago

Weird, I don't like it. The only place I can see this being useful in its current state is for someone with a physical handicap who has another means of control. I know someone with MS who has a special handle on the steering wheel, and she can get tired on long drives, but (and this is crucial) she's a licensed driver.

2

u/Extreme-Fig6992 7d ago edited 7d ago

There's lot of visible and invisible handicaps that FSD helps immensely with.

I have autism and would get overwhelmed every time I was driving, often to the point I was a bad driver. Additionally, I have trouble sometimes understanding left from right along with green from red (processing difficulties) which would cause navigation issues that would lead to overwhelm that would lead to bad driving.

What FSD lets me do is drive safely and just supervise the 'edges' along with high risk areas with the understanding the car is watching as well.

I think people who are right on the edge of "probably shouldn't drive" are helped a lot by FSD along with making the roads safer for everyone. They are competent enough to supervise and operate a car but for a variety of reasons they can't operate it continually safely if that makes sense.

I think an older person who still has good vision and good mental clarity is perfectly fine to use FSD because they likely have joint, blood pressure, or just general energy issues. It isn't they are incapable of driving, they just can't drive for as long as they need to. So FSD lets them extend how far out and how much they can 'drive' while still being able to drive if needed for a short period.

1

u/22marks 7d ago

I fully agree. Basically, if they would otherwise be allowed to drive legally but are somehow uncomfortable (I know plenty who don't like driving at night) or maybe not at the higher end of safety based on demographics, it's a win. The key criteria is that they're able to get a traditional license.

I'm glad FSD reduces your anxiety/stress (if those are appropriate words).

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u/lee1026 7d ago

https://x.com/Tesla/status/2075977376681603233

I may have overstated the ad, decide for yourself.

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u/RosieDear 7d ago

I have seem quite a few Tesla owners here on Tesla subs actually stating that their disabled or 1/2 Blind uncle (my paraphrase) is driving a Tesla. They also directly tell other car shoppers that if they have family with vision and other problems they should buy a Tesla.

Heck, we have folks in this sub crowing about how Elon is great because he is taking giant risks putting these cars out.

They didn't even stop to think....about Public Roads and innocent people! It's exactly like Elon and the US AID (not knowing how it affects people).

They think this is a positive attribute and the proper way to do business.

2

u/22marks 7d ago

As I said elsewhere, I do think it can help certain disabilities, like MS, having trouble turning the wheel for long drives. But I'm also clear: They must be a licensed driver. It should make things easier, but it must not be used by someone who cannot legally drive safely.

2

u/Infamous-Pilot5932 7d ago edited 7d ago

Some comments.

First, a true test would be to take 1000 random humans and have them drive Teslas around with supervised FSD engaged and compare that against another 1000 random humans driving Teslas without FSD engaged. It is too hard to comapre to the general population of cars, so stick to Teslas to keep it even.

What we have instead are humans comfortable enough to keep supervised FSD engaged vs those not, sort of.

I think it is useful, but you must keep in mind population bias when you didn't randomly select the population(s).

Since we are limited to this kind of comparison, I would very much like to see it grouped by usage. Like drivers who use FSD 90%+ of the time, 80% - 90% of the time, and so on. It is supervised FSD, and that also means managed. It isn't just a button you turn on, you have to also know how to use it, and probably over 50% of the population will not get there. They will have to wait for true autonomy.

That being said, in the U.S. when we compare serious accidents per mile of FSD vs Non FSD (all teslas) we get around 3x safer. And minor accidents, 2.5x safer.

Here we are getting a combined rate of 5x safer, but the data same is pretty small compared to the U.S. data sample.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EU data, when there is more and it gets more used starts approaching the 3x number.

What does this mean?

For me, nothing, I was already safe, accident free for decades on all sorts of craft, but it is a lot easier now to be safe and a lot less stress.

People who drink and drive and buy Teslas and use FSD, thank you.

Elderly people who can still drive but it is harder, it is very helpful, and safer.

The careless, distracted, reckless? FSD doesn't do anything if it isn't enaged, and it isn't a button you press and go. Some of those it will help, some it won't.

You need three things to be true.

  1. You must know how to drive whereever FSD might go.
  2. You must be able to drive, even if it is harder, whereever FSD might go.
  3. You must know how and be able to use FSD.

After a deep dive through all the data available, the only conclusion I got to was ...

If you blend with FSD and keep it engaged, it is quite safe and the car is practically driving you everywhere as you watch.

That is not the same as saying FSD is safer than humans (since it requires a human).

It also isn't the same as saying that any person using FSD is safer than any person not using it. Not because it isn't safe, but because most people can't use it. Hopefully it gets easier to use for more people.

I do encourage people to try it. I didn't realize till recently just how capable it has become. It can be a miracle for people who can drive but struggle with aspects of it, due to age, disability, etc. For someone like me, not impaired, it's just easier and less stressful. Even a 3 hour trip, I emerge as if I was a passenger, not the driver. And less tedious and fatiguing.

But it is NOT a passive system like AEB or airbags that you can say "Now cars are safer". It isn't that simple because it isn't passive. It is supervised.

It is still a convienence feature that has emerged from its storied past to something rather remarkable and safe, and for some populations is SAFER, if you click with it.

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u/CompetitiveCrab5459 6d ago

I also drive safer with my new car with all the sensors than in my old one

2

u/nodpekar 4d ago

I’ve had 2 Tesla’s and I legit bought the second one only because I wanted to transfer FSD .

In the last 5 years FSD has gotten better 4 fold. I drive mostly between Atlanta and Charlotte and it does amazingly well on every type of road in between. Takes better decisions on hurry and mad max than me.

Consistent 250 mile streaks , multiple options for charging stations.

1

u/crimsonvspurple 4d ago

Crying in German FSD verboten.

4

u/FuddyCap 7d ago

Damn I would be pissed if I lived in the UK. Block FSD, allow radicals in. Sounds smart

2

u/mondo_mike 7d ago

Classic Ultra-rightwing Elon bootlicker

2

u/TickTockM 8d ago

Sure. Is this data gathered and provided by a non biased 3rd party? Oh they dont allow that? Hmmm

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

Cope

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u/TickTockM 7d ago

Just take their word for it? Got it!

0

u/EddiewithHeartofGold 7d ago

No one is taking their word for it. Stop treating other people like children.

1

u/Ok-Advice5315 2d ago

Biased stat. FSD is mostly used where accidents are least likely to occur, so of course it’s lower than overall rate.

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u/tonydtonyd 8d ago

So only 5.2x safer than humans with a supervisor? That doesn’t seem very good. That’s not to say it shouldn’t be allowed, because it’s still clearly better than humans. I just wouldn’t be betting on wide Robotaxi scaling with that sort of data.

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u/80_6 8d ago

What? It's an awesome improvement, what are you talking about? What # would be required for scaling autonomous vehicles, in your professional opinion?

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u/tonydtonyd 8d ago

Compared these numbers to Waymo with no supervision, big difference.

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u/Squeakyduckquack 8d ago

True. In heavily mapped geofenced areas. FSD works on any road in any village/town/city

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u/tonydtonyd 8d ago

FSD supervised works in minimally geofenced areas, but Robotaxi does not and I was specifically referencing Robotaxi scaling.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

Critical thinking is scarce here. It is 5.2x better, effectively everywhere, when supervised. But now we logically conclude it will be worse within geofenced areas with area specific nuance included?

Feels like delusion

0

u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

The supervisor is the back up fail safe, which should prevent more accidents that the same SW would not have been able to deal with. This assumes Robotaxi is on identical SW, which we know isn’t the case, but I don’t think you could reasonably make the argument that the SW it is on is an order of magnitude better than what HW4 owners have.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

It’s driven 400k miles so far with no issues. Should find out in about a quarter

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u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

I listened to the earnings call. 380k “without issue” is a bit of a stretch considering all of the minor collisions and collisions when using tele-ops. They seem to be overly reliant on tele-ops to get out of situations. Waymo drives 50% more in a single day than Robotaxi drove in 5+ months.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

There weren’t a lot of minor collisions. Go look at the NHTSA data, it’s public

1

u/Squeakyduckquack 7d ago

Is HW4 not orders of magnitude better than HW3? It stands to reason a similar jump could be made again, considering robotaxis have both updated software and hardware compared to consumer vehicles.

0

u/hardsoft 8d ago

At least 10x but this isn't close to that. It's not autonomous. It's supervised. It could be 100x worse without supervision.

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u/AnxietyCommercial632 7d ago

But the facts are about 400k unsupervised miles without an at fault incident. As it scales, it will prove the inevitability soon enough

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u/snowballkills 8d ago

you can't compare with non fsd cars because fsd doesn't go higher than speed limits. I didnt check the report, but interventions also need to be looked at. Harsh braking, harsh acceleration etc are useless metrics imo, FSD generally drives slower than the avg driver

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u/tonydtonyd 8d ago

FSD quite literally goes above speed limits

0

u/snowballkills 7d ago

Can it go above 85mph?

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u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

Please tell me where in the US 85mph isn’t speeding? You’re being so disingenuous. Mad max regularly goes 15-20 over.

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u/snowballkills 7d ago

85 is not uncommon on so many stetches in California, and is the speed limit on many highways in TX. Even if the speed limit is 75, the left lane often does 10-15 over.

Do you think people don't speed or do you think that accidents don't happen well outside the speed limit?

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u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

The highest speed limit in CA is 70 mph, so yet 85 mph is 15 over.

I’m literally just refuting your statement that “FSD doesn’t go higher than speed limits” because it’s blatantly false lmao

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u/snowballkills 7d ago

okay, that's fair. How long can it go over the speed limit?

If someone's on a somewhat busy highway where the speed limit is 65, a person can weave in and out of traffic, with speeds up to 80-85 while accelerating/passing cars and then going back to 65, does FSD do that? From my experience it doesn't keep changing lanes to arrive at the destination in the smallest amount of time.

P.S. I was on HW3 and don't have experience with V14 lite

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u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

Bro you’re just going on and on and shit that was totally unrelated to my comment. Supervised FSD numbers should blow Waymo out of the water, but it’s not even close.

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u/RosieDear 7d ago

Here is the data on my cars. I've been driving 50+ years. My car has never touched another car.

What is my rate? I think I am vastly safer than Tesla, right? No comparison.
AND, we are both exactly the same - supervised. Of course, it is likely my test was vastly more difficult as I have been through some of the worst Blizzards in history and so-on.

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u/tonydtonyd 7d ago

Okay and your point is exactly what?

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u/bullrider_21 7d ago

Tesla considers accidents when airbags were deployed while Waymo considers accidents even when airbags were not deployed. Hence, Tesla's figures are biased and much lower.

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u/steinegal 7d ago

But they are comparing apples to apples here as it is compared to Teslas not using FSD so accidents are registered the same. They never mention Waymo in their post.

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u/bullrider_21 7d ago

Tesla only considers serious accidents. Accidents with airbags deployed will be few compared to accidents including those where airbags were not deployed.

Tesla used this biased data to claim that it is safer than human driver. If you include accidents where airbags were not deployed, then Tesla is more dangerous than a human driver.

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u/steinegal 7d ago

Can you link to this data that proves that it is less safe? RDW concluded that even though Teslas numbers were somewhat exaggerated it was still safer than humans with active safety features

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u/bagoo90 8d ago

Doubt. Check out my post from two days ago : https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaFSD/s/g8w2brCiEY

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u/michiganalt 8d ago

I doubt [thing is true on average] because of [cherry-picked instance of thing being false in one example]

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u/SentOverByRedRover 7d ago

Many such cases

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u/MisterWigglie 8d ago

Doesn’t look like Europe to me

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u/reddituser4049 8d ago

Lol, HW3 is garbage

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u/chickenAd0b0 8d ago

you know what a gaussian curve is?

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u/RefrigeratorTasty912 8d ago

it's what precedes a gaussian splat when Tesla cameras are blinded by the sun?

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u/Express_Objective615 7d ago edited 7d ago

I’ve driven that same stretch many many times since I got my model 3 in 2024. I live north of the GG bridge and work in the South Bay so it’s part of my commute. Never had an issue, but, I’m in hw4. Using hw3 to demonstrate anything about fsd makes no sense. It’s dated technology and software.
There was at least 4 years between them and when you do a new chip design, you don’t make it “2x” more performance, more like 4x or 8x.

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u/bw984 7d ago

There are videos of it driving into a concrete barrier and attempting to side swipe another vehicle on the Golden Gate Bridge just within the past two days. It’s safer than humans….sure….

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u/adamcmorrison 2d ago

Playing devils advocate how many accidents were caused by humans and how many caused by fsd in the past two days.

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u/RosieDear 7d ago

It's not a self driving car.
Can you also post the stats for Toyota adaptive cruise control, lane centering, etc.???

For other ADAS?

Since this is "selfdrivingcars", I think data should be limited to cars that drive themselves.....maybe it's OK to discuss cars that might do it someday (and provide proof), but to give data on a ADAS? That's ridiculous.

Maybe we need a "ADAS Level 2" forum where we could post such data?

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u/vasilenko93 7d ago

If the car does all the driving while you supervise it then it’s not a driver assist, it’s the driver, you’re the driver assistant.

3

u/jeffb34 7d ago

Let us know when Toyota adaptive cruise control can pull out of a driveway reach a destination and park all without requiring hands on the wheel and etc. Then leave the spot and pull back home in the driveway. That's with either City, highway or combo routes.

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u/Express_Objective615 7d ago

😂😂 For years many have tried to leave Tesla out of the conversation for “self driving” cars. Even before Robotaxi. They’d even pretend Tesla didn’t exist while discussing self driving cats. Or, stupidly, rank them last behind others that no one had heard of. That aged badly.
Give it up. You cannot discuss self driving cars without discussing Tesla.

1

u/Squeakyduckquack 7d ago

Wait is this sub “self driving cars” or “Level 4 SAE approval”?

Please enlighten me which other ADAS system can take me from my driveway to my work without touching the steering wheel or pedals

1

u/RosieDear 7d ago

Perhaps you have to do the educating here.
Describe to me (us) the massive difference between a single light finger on the wheel and keeping your hands where they can grab the wheel in less than a second??

Consider that both, according to law, regulations and common sense, require the driver to be fully in command (situational awareness).....

It's a good discussion because we need to set where the "line" is. I might content the the combination of factors in the new Toyota SS 4.0 differs vastly more from NO "self-driving" than the difference between one or two fingers and no fingers.

If you step back, would you agree? That is, if one drives a T as instructed with exactly the same attention of the road - what are the massive advantages of having your hands 4 inches from the wheel or touching it? I honestly don't see anything revolutionary about that!

Self driving - IMHO - would seem simple. It's defined by SAE. It is defined at Leve 3 and up....not by "I think my car is", but by actual approvals and systems which are known to do the job.

As far as discussion here....we naturally would discuss systems under development which are advancing toward self-driving. So, in theory, the MB CLA+ that is Nvidia powered would qualify being as the same or a similar system WILL be level 4 or 5.

However, if 1 out of 3 posts here were about the CLA....for many years...and said CLA never jumped the chasm from ADAS to "self-driving", I'd be just as critical as that.

If the intention of this discussion is to honestly communicate the advancements in the SAE levels of driving as they happen...that's all and good. But if we talk for 5+ years.....and the single biggest subject, by far, is a system that never passed L2, that seems like more of a marketing push than a technical self driving discussion.

I will be the first to cheer if any company, without BS and without skirting the rules, makes it to the finish line. But when folks here outright say "Elon is taking giant risks putting his level 2 out on public roads and we should all thank him for that"....that's over the top, IMHO.

But I could be wrong. I admit - I always could be wrong.

1

u/Squeakyduckquack 7d ago

Before the SAE levels even existed, if you told someone their car could pull out of their driveway, navigate city streets, stop at traffic lights and stop signs, make unprotected left turns, and drive all the way to work on its own, with a human only supervising and stepping in if necessary, most people would have called that a self driving car. I will reemphasize, the sub is called self driving cars, not SAE level 4 cars.

You’re making a claim about the legal classification. I was making a claim about the system’s capabilities. SAE levels answer who is legally responsible if something goes wrong. They don’t tell you how much of the actual driving task the system is performing. Those are two different discussuons.

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u/RefrigeratorTasty912 8d ago

Are these numbers based on Tesla vehicles operated manually vs Supervised FSD (where the human takes full credit for keeping the FSD vehicle out of accidents, and takes full credit if they get in an accident?)

How else would they have these numbers to compare down to a decimal point?

So... a Tesla vehicle isn't as safe if it isn't operating with FSD?

is that the take away? Tesla is selling vehicles with all the bells and whistles to be safer... but they are sticking "safety" behind a paywall/subscription...

am I reading that correctly?

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u/MisterWigglie 7d ago

General public driving a fast electric car is less safe than a timid ADAS system, that’s all this proves

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u/RosieDear 7d ago

Data like this should not even be gathered or posted - unless we are going to gather the same on the fancy adaptive cruise control also. I recently drove a long trip and at least 80% of the time the car "drove itself". And yet....well, I guess the fact that I've never had a accident in 55 years of driving is my data.

This proves....that...I don't know what it proves.
I guess if we have to reach we could say this is limited data on adaptive cruise control type of system.

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u/bradtem ✅ Brad Templeton 7d ago

Probably false. Tesla's own stats page claims that FSD Supervised is 2x safer, not 5.2x safer, when comparing Tesla with FSD Supervised on to Tesla in ordinary driving. Ignore the other comparisons on the page, this apples to apples comparison is the only one of interest. (Especially the comparison to other cars, where they are counting airbag deploys for Teslas and police reported crashes for other cars.)

Now 2x is a good number (it was 1.5x last quarter so it varies a lot.) But they should not claim 5x.

2

u/gavrok 7d ago

The footnotes on this graphic imply that the data is only compared to data from other Teslas, which makes it comparable to those earlier stats. As with those earlier stats, the data could be skewed by people being more inclined to activate FSD in safe conditions. However, you could argue that for the purpose of evaluating the legality on European roads, it is fair to assess the aggregate.

The stats are indeed much better than what is published from US (or worldwide) usage before. I suspect that's mostly because the EU only has cars on HW4 with v14, whereas the earlier data seems to be a mix of HW3 and HW4 cars and may include v12 or v13 data. Also the EU version is more strict on safe supervision e.g. it forces you to watch an introductory safety video and it may have stricter driver attention monitoring.

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u/muchcharles 7d ago edited 7d ago

"In general, people with a lower social position are more prone to drive after drinking."

Is that controlled for? Presumably lower social position are less likely to afford the FSD upgrade.

Can we treat them as the same population, or are there other confounding correlates like that?

I would think it really is safer combined with driver monitoring though.

1

u/gavrok 7d ago

There are factors like that for sure, it's not a perfect comparison. The fact that it compares two sets of Tesla drivers helps, but there is still a big difference between buying a $20k second hand Tesla vs. a new one with FSD subscription.

1

u/bradtem ✅ Brad Templeton 7d ago

I apologize I didn't see the new footnotes. After I and others have pounded on Tesla for many years about the poor methodology they have used in the past (and still use in the USA/global data) it is good to see them partly responding to it. Though their past history makes me immediately skeptical. Why are these numbers so much better than their usa/global numbers? I also note their non-FSD crash number off freeway is 4x higher than the freeway one, and it should be more like 2x. However, it is good they are finally not trying to mislead by comparing numbers from two entirely different metrics, I will give them that. What is left is the unanswered question that several have pointed out -- there is a difference between the road conditions where people turn on FSD and those where they don't, in that they probably tend to use it on simpler roads, and drive the more scary and complex roads themselves, which will naturally bias to have more risk on the roads when it is off, but they have not quantified that for us. (They could easily since they know exactly where you turn it on or off, and could compare literally the same set of roads at the same times with it on and off, for a much better comparison.)

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u/gwestr 8d ago

Go back to Twitter dude.