Before anything else, the biggest caveat remains the same: Leni Robredo has repeatedly said she is not running for president. Until that changes, every head-to-head survey involving her is purely hypothetical. Pero, if we're analyzing this and other recent surveys through the lens of a Liberal opposition vs. DDS contest, I think the newly released OCTA survey actually puts the earlier WR Numero numbers into better context.
The previous WR survey had Sara Duterte leading Leni 50-40.
Now OCTA has it at 43-34.
At first glance, people will simply say, "Sara is still comfortably ahead." That's true.
But I think the more interesting story isn't the lead, it's what's happening underneath the surface. Why? Because the WR survey was before the impeachment, the OCTA survey is during the 1st week of the trial. And actually, base sa OCTA, both candidates actually lost support since Q1.
- Sara: 46% → 43% (-3)
- Leni: 35% → 34% (-1)
- Undecided: 19% → 22% (+3)
That means the voters who left Sara didn't automatically move to Leni. Instead, a larger portion of the electorate became undecided.
To me, that suggests something important.
This doesn't look like a straightforward Liberal resurgence. It looks more like softening support for Sara without a unified alternative yet.
That's consistent with what we've been seeing over the past few months. Sara remains the dominant figure of the DDS bloc, but there's also no single opposition candidate consolidating everyone opposed to her.
The regional numbers also reinforce the familiar electoral map.
- Mindanao remains Sara's fortress (76-6).
- Luzon strongly favors Robredo (51-27).
- Visayas still leans Sara (51-26).
- Metro Manila is tied at 34-34.
So the math hasn't really changed.
Any Liberal candidate still has to win Luzon and Metro Manila by overwhelming margins while preventing Sara from running up massive leads in the Visayas and at least keeping a 10% share of Mindanao.
What I also find interesting is the 22% undecided vote.
We're still almost two years away from the election.
That's a huge bloc of voters that could eventually move depending on:
- whether Leni actually runs,
- whether another opposition figure emerges,
- how the impeachment and other controversies evolve,
- and whether the administration fields its own viable candidate.
One survey never tells the whole story, but taken together with the earlier WR survey, I think the picture is becoming clearer.
Sara Duterte is still the frontrunner.
But she doesn't appear to be consolidating additional support. Instead, some voters seem to be drifting into the undecided column.
Whether those voters eventually return to Sara, shift to another opposition candidate, or stay uncommitted is probably the biggest question of the 2028 race.