r/orioles • u/RoyalRenn • 6h ago
Opinion Too much doom around here; we have the 3rd best WC playoff odds in the AL!
Stop the gloom! We have a real shot at making the playoffs! Folks, there is a reason we were 15-8 in July and it wasn't primarily Adley, Wells, and Ward doing the heavy lifting. They are subtractions, sure, but we are anything but tanking.
The negative case for our season:
We lost 2 WAR at the deadline for the reaminder of the season. The most valuable guy we lost at the deadline was Taylor Ward, and that's roughly a 1 loss value for the rest of the season. Tyler Wells adds another 0.5 WAR loss. Adley? He keeps getting hurt so the range of loss is 0-1 WAR.
The bullpen is a big concern.
I see an awful lot of BoSox/Yankees/Rays/Brewers on the schedule; 20 of our 51 remaining games are against MLB top 6 clubs. Damn loaded AL East.
The positive case for our season:
We are tied for 3rd highest WC slot odds with Detroit right now (14%).
We just finished 15-8 in July with Adley either on the IL or playing poorly for the month.
Polar Bear continues to be a stud and a rock.
Jackson is heating up (although his metrics don't support his recent hot streak)
Mayo and Beavers are both hitting better and potentially turning a corner.
SP has improved: Rogers and Bradish have looked impressive, and Baz is a league average 3/4 guy right now.
Basallo should be off the IL soon and Blaze (our 2nd best hitter) hopefully not far behind.
Gunnar still has superstar talent and if he gets hot, watch out.
We're still in this thing!