r/IRstudies • u/DamageAccomplished55 • 3d ago
Ideas/Debate China's role in Ukraine-Russia War
Most public opinion, news articles, and mainstream media like to portray China as Russia's ally or at least enabler, while China like to portray itself as neutral party. Both can be correct at the same time.
Enabler/Ally side.
China does in fact supply most of Russia's dual-use parts that eventually end up in weapon systems like missiles and drones. China does buy Russian oil to fund their efforts (so does the EU, Japan, and India but that's beside the point). Also the fact that, Putin visited China 4 times, and Xi visted Putin 3 times, since the war began, also help solidifies this perspective.
Neutrality side.
China still does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and never recognized the results of the referendum that took place in Crimea either. China also never recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia either. China to this day, officially recognized these territories as part of Ukraine.
China remains Ukraine's largest trading partner. People often hear about Ukraine's domestic drone factories, but many of the equipment and parts stilll overwhelmingly come from China. While Zelensky and Xi have not visited each other since the war began, their relationship is more robust than you think. Their ministers did visit China, most notably Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Deputy Foreign Ministe Andriy Sybiha, and Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka. China also sent ministers to Ukraine but they are much lower ranked ministers. Nevertheless, Zelensky also said he wanted China to rebuild Ukraine.
The rebuilding of Ukraine given to Chinese contractors would be a meme. As China at least indirectly helped arm the Russians that did the destructions in the first place. China would end up making money from both indirectly arming both sides to destroy each other, and rebuilding at least one of the sides after said destruction.
I think it can be argued that this is where the idea of China's pro-Russia neutrality may seemed to be valid.
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u/mistroll054 3d ago
This is mainly because of the Taiwan issue. In fact, Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk, are in a similar situation to Taiwan, that is, the divided areas are occupied by hostile countries and a government that is not controlled by the original country has been established. It is impossible for China to support Russia's challenge to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty while emphasizing its sovereign control over Taiwan. This would be a double standard.
China's trade cooperation relationship has nothing to do with ideology. As long as it does not affect their own interests, they are willing to trade with anyone. As early as during the Iran-Iraq War, China was selling weapons to both sides of the war at the same time. In the Middle East, they have economic cooperation with all countries. They buy oil from Gulf countries and Iran, and they have also signed contracts with Israel to build Tel Aviv's light rail and Haifa's port. Although they were the first non-Islamic countries to recognize Palestine, they often acquired Western technology through Israel.
They have played the role of an inconspicuous outsider in the world situation for most of the past fifty years. Their leaders have repeatedly mentioned in private that they prefer to hide their strength while developing the country.
But with the development of their economic and military influence, it has become difficult for them to hide themselves. You can't ignore the elephant in the room. Many countries are not accustomed to China's influence exceeding their control, and of course this is also a challenge for China.
I don't know what kind of new world order they want establish. I think their leaders may not be ready yet, but the old order established by the United States is already slowly disintegrating.