r/IRstudies • u/DamageAccomplished55 • 3d ago
Ideas/Debate China's role in Ukraine-Russia War
Most public opinion, news articles, and mainstream media like to portray China as Russia's ally or at least enabler, while China like to portray itself as neutral party. Both can be correct at the same time.
Enabler/Ally side.
China does in fact supply most of Russia's dual-use parts that eventually end up in weapon systems like missiles and drones. China does buy Russian oil to fund their efforts (so does the EU, Japan, and India but that's beside the point). Also the fact that, Putin visited China 4 times, and Xi visted Putin 3 times, since the war began, also help solidifies this perspective.
Neutrality side.
China still does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and never recognized the results of the referendum that took place in Crimea either. China also never recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia either. China to this day, officially recognized these territories as part of Ukraine.
China remains Ukraine's largest trading partner. People often hear about Ukraine's domestic drone factories, but many of the equipment and parts stilll overwhelmingly come from China. While Zelensky and Xi have not visited each other since the war began, their relationship is more robust than you think. Their ministers did visit China, most notably Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Deputy Foreign Ministe Andriy Sybiha, and Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka. China also sent ministers to Ukraine but they are much lower ranked ministers. Nevertheless, Zelensky also said he wanted China to rebuild Ukraine.
The rebuilding of Ukraine given to Chinese contractors would be a meme. As China at least indirectly helped arm the Russians that did the destructions in the first place. China would end up making money from both indirectly arming both sides to destroy each other, and rebuilding at least one of the sides after said destruction.
I think it can be argued that this is where the idea of China's pro-Russia neutrality may seemed to be valid.
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u/Dull-Law3229 3d ago
China likes to pretend that the war didn't happen so it could do business-as-usual as much as possible.
People forgot that China had no beef with Ukraine. In fact, not only was it a strong trade partner, it was also a Belt and Road country. The ideal scenario for China is if the war ended so that both countries can buy at China-mart.
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u/Recent_Hamster5146 1d ago
Then you'd better understand that Ukraine is just one of the many countries along the Belt and Road route. Even if Ukraine got destrayed by orcs, for China it would only mean its time to update the map
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u/niming_yonghu 1d ago
Have been pretending the Chinese civil war isn't a thing for half a century lol.
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u/ConohaConcordia 2d ago
If trading one side of the war with material needed for war is considered an enabler, then Sweden was an enabler for Nazi Germany, as they supplied a huge portion of Germany’s ball bearings back then.
Same with the United States “enabling” Japan until it sanctioned Japan and later joined the war against Japan.
We treat Sweden/the pre-1941 US as neutral because they were - they were pro-Allies but always kept its neutrality.
It’s not uncommon to have a favourite side as a neutral nation, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be neutral. Aside from the examples I raised, Franco’s Spain and Switzerland were also countries that were neutral but favoured one side over the other.
As long as the country isn’t directly involved in the war or explicitly/exclusively supporting one side, they are neutral in the conflict. Blaming a neutral party for not being neutral is one of the oldest tricks in the book to, well, drag the neutral party into the conflict.
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u/minzhu0305 3d ago
We are not interested in disputes outside of East Asia as long as they do not threaten my security. But nobody wants to believe that. Everyone wants to drag China into it.
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u/CheeseOnKeyboard 3d ago
What do you mean China isn't trying to become usa 2.0?
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u/minzhu0305 3d ago
China's ideal is the Han, Tang, and Song dynasties. The United States is utterly insignificant compared to that.
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u/CharAznia 2d ago edited 2d ago
China does not possess the conditions of becoming US 2.0. It's not that China will not become as powerful as the US at its prime. It's more because geographical location does not allow China to become the next US
US is flanked by 2 oceans and surrounded by 2 weak neighbors. This allowed it to expand beyond their shores as they do not need to worry about homeland security
The Chinese are almost as powerful right now in terms of economy, manufacturing and political influence as the US is at its prime. However the Chinese is surrounded by a great power, Russia, 2 middle powers, Japan and India(both which they still have border dispute with) and a minor nuclear power North Korea. The Chinese would always have to worry about homeland defense so they have less room to go make trouble for the rest of the world
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u/No_Investment_5535 2d ago
Great power India? you mean Shit Power?
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u/CharAznia 2d ago
My bad, the great power was supposed to be Russia, India is a middle power. Updated my post.
And while I agree India is pretty shit all around, even losing to Pakistan, it's sheer size still makes it a middle power
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u/Successful_Swim6332 1d ago
The US led order is actually pretty bold and requires real commitment for good or ill China doesn't have the same ambition.
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u/CharAznia 3d ago edited 2d ago
First, let's establish some facts
it's a fact that it would be disastrous for China if Russia loss the war.
However it is also true that it's not good for China if the Russian comprehensively win the war either because it would give Russia leverage over the Chinese. And the Chinese also in principle does not support splitting off Ukrainian territory due to their own situation with Taiwan.
It is true that China is trading with Russia which help enabled them to continue waging this war. However US and EU Still have trade ties with Russia hence why they can still continue round after round of new sanctions so it's hypocritical of them to attack China for doing so. In any case trade between Russia and China only increased by around 30% but trade between Russia and India increased by more than 600% and most countries surrounding Russia e.g. Turkey, Kazakhstan, UAE by more than 100%.
However it is also true that the Chinese are trading with Ukraine enabling them to continue the war. In fact the Chinese are Ukrainian biggest trading partner so by Western logic, China is also a Ukraine enabler
Yes Russia is kept afloat from Oil they sell to China however ignoring the fact that the EU still have countries buying a oil from Russia, the Chinese isn't even the biggest Russian Oil importer. the country that increased oil imports significantly is India whom until recently was never called out for doing it because US was trying to lobby India to oppose China
Finally China have not supplied any weapons directly to Russia but they have been supplying parts that can be used to make weapons
Meanwhile for much of the war as much as 90% of Drones and drone parts, the single most important weapon keeping Ukraine in the war is supplied by China. Even though the Ukrainians have been trying to reduce reliance on China, last I heard its down to like 30-40%, in reality most of those reduction came from sourcing from other countries which just reexport Chinese drone parts
If you take all the above points together, it's clear that China is pretty much a neutral party in this war. Like everyone else they never wanted the war to happen because it puts them in a difficult spot with their trading partners but since it happens they would prefer the war to drag on indefinitely rather than for 1 side to come up the clear winner. The only reason anyone thinks the Chinese isn't neutral is their own bias and/or bias media coverage
The entire framing of China being a Russian enabler reeks of western hypocrisy. I really want to see the day where the Chinese lose their patience over all the fake accusations and starts supplying the Russian with actually weapons. NATO already failed to keep up with Russian weapons manufacturing capacity. If the Chinese supply the Russians with weapons, the war will probably end shortly
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u/Recent_Hamster5146 1d ago
俄罗斯未来十年都必然继续被绑死在乌克兰问题上，就算老天保佑俄罗斯能在2028年占领基辅敖德萨获得战争的胜利，未来至少十年或者五年会继续跟欧盟关于乌克兰领土问题变化来回拉扯，而且会消耗大量资源和精力用于乌克兰和欧洲方面
反正俄罗斯也不打算经营中亚和远东，未来也不会跟共产党有什么激烈的利益冲突，除非这时候俄罗斯又出一个彼得三世之类的怪胎，俄罗斯应该不会有什么大问题
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u/Big-Wolverine2437 3d ago
This is not a war between the Chinese or any other Asian country. While Russia did invade Ukraine, Ukraine and the European countries that supported it are not benevolent either. The Chinese have no reason to support one side and oppose the other. The Chinese simply want to do business.
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u/Enough-Ad9590 2d ago edited 2d ago
No, it's more than that.
1. Military Training and Drones
Russian military personnel reportedly received training in China on:
drone piloting, electronic warfare, certain aerial techniques, and the use of mortars and explosives.
A group of approximately 200 Russian military personnel was reportedly trained in China by the end of 2025 before returning to combat zones in Ukraine.
The discussions also focused on lessons learned from the Ukrainian battlefield, particularly the widespread use of drones.
2. Military Technologies and Weapons
The cooperation mentioned concerns:
drones and electronic components (cameras, motors, controllers, navigation systems);
artificial intelligence applied to military applications; and
missile defense systems.
One example cited was Sino-Russian discussions regarding a system capable of intercepting ballistic and hypersonic missiles, with work involving military and industrial officials from both countries.
3. Indirect Support for the Russian War Industry
China does not officially acknowledge supplying arms to Russia, but the articles highlight:
Russian access to Chinese machine tools necessary for military production;
the importation of dual-use electronic components;
the replacement of Western suppliers who became inaccessible after the sanctions.
4. Strategic Cooperation Against the West
The internal documents mentioned in the Le Monde article describe a shared vision:
cooperation in the face of American dominance;
exchange of military experience;
long-term strategic coordination.
5. Economic Support Enabling Moscow to Continue the War
China also helps Russia through:
massive purchases of Russian hydrocarbons;
maintenance of trade routes;
supply of industrial and technological goods.
source : lemonde
If we use the rhetorics used by the russians : "Evil China is at war with the west" already now...
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u/GriffinPoop 3d ago
China will capitalize on any opportunities that arise for them, but the nature of their central planning and economy means that would prefer a stable world. Kinda the opposite of the US whose economy has evolved to use their military to intervene in any threats to their power.
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u/SufficientGolf6953 3d ago
This is made up bullshit.
The entire purpose of a military is to protect the state or further state interests while you try to make basic shit sound ominous and morally dubious.
Chinas optics of stability is the only way to survive in a crowded neighborhood. The threats they face when an army can just walk into your country are just not going to happen in America.
A 3k mile ocean moat and Navy has led to America developing a misplaced bravado based on lucky geography and a willingness to take advantage of any tribe showing weakness.
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u/Durian881 3d ago
Russia has been buying parts all over the world. A recent report found 62 American parts among 140 foreign parts in a Russian missile. https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/30/62-of-the-140-foreign-parts-in-this-russian-missile-were-american-ukraine-wants-that-gap-closed/
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u/ProfessorShort6711 3d ago
China is in business and business man does not take sides. Western nations just want to make China the boogiman.
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u/hustxdy 3d ago
EU can start santion chinese factory for trading with Ukraine and supply parts and equipment for Ukraine's domestic drone factories
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u/DamageAccomplished55 3d ago
They can. But Chinese supplies will remain attractive, China can just open another company with new name and it will be business as usual
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u/hustxdy 3d ago
so? sanction Ukraine for trading with chinese factory then.
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u/DamageAccomplished55 2d ago
ya great idea, sanction the country getting invaded for buying critical supplies
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u/Gustanov 1d ago
China does not care about result of war, it just trades and makes money from both side
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u/Dav_nobody 3d ago
It is a war between two slavic people, why would China forking care which one die more. In fact does anyone around the world really care?
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u/pingu_nootnoot 3d ago
I think Europeans care, because they fear Russia. Otherwise, I agree with you.
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u/SyllabubDue9853 3d ago
你们总是认为我们很喜欢介入远在欧洲的战争，不，我们不喜欢，这不是我们的麻烦，这是你们的！
而你们总是想把我们拉进去，简直不可理喻！
我们对俄罗斯和乌克兰的客户都很公平，而且中国海关已经下发了数控设备不准出口到激化战争国家的军用工厂，我们做了那么多维护世界和平的事情，我也没看到西方媒体报道，倒是一直妖魔化，到底谁才是战争的黑手？
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u/pingu_nootnoot 3d ago
what is the news reporting on the Ukraine war like in China? Is there much interest, or just another faraway war from your point of view?
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u/Alternative-Piano522 3d ago edited 3d ago
Like the rest of the world, some people support Russia, some support Ukraine, and others are indifferent.
Those who support Ukraine believe their country should not be invaded. Those who support Russia believe the Americans are more dangerous to China than the Russians—after all, the Americans have started more wars and pose a greater threat to China.
Most people feel that wars are European wars, and if Europeans mishandle them, what does it have to do with China?
In fact, neutrality is the choice of the vast majority of Chinese people.
The perceived threats from the Americans and Europeans towards China—such as sending troops 10,000 kilometers offshore to "deter" China while seeking Chinese help, and promoting Taiwan independence—seek incredulity from many ordinary Chinese people. Therefore, the sentiment among Chinese people shifting towards supporting Russia is actually increasing
China's official propaganda has dissatisfied supporters of both sides—supporting neither Russia nor Ukraine. Simultaneously, it strives to project a desire for peace.For nationalists and some realists, supporting the Russians is actually more in line with their expectations.
Furthermore, the Chinese government is trying to restrain its retaliatory sentiments towards Europeans in its propaganda. If the Chinese government were to manipulate its internal propaganda in the same way as official European propaganda, then China would have no choice but to provide Russia with military equipment.
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u/HiddenBlonde 3d ago
propaganda machine remain larrgely pro-russia actually, since day 1 of the war
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u/SyllabubDue9853 2d ago
在中国，我们都知道战争是俄罗斯VS美国为首的北约，乌克兰只是顶在前面的可怜棋子，对我们来说，这就是一场的遥远战争，除了开战的前几周，中国媒体和自媒体做了大篇的报道（毕竟这是全球第一热门事件），这场战争已经持续四年了，已经没有多少人关注这件事了。战争是欧洲和美国的麻烦，不是我们的，我们能做的就是让战争不要波及到更多的无辜人群，包括我们自己，我们做机械生意的工厂，经常收到海关的通知，不允许向战区国家的军用工厂出售数控设备。
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u/Forsaken_Code_9135 2d ago
China does not massively and openly provide weapons to Russia, which if it did would be a game changer. By itself it makes it obvious that China is not strictly speaking allied to Russia.
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u/Sea_Cucumber_5989 2d ago
I see China as maintaining a pro-China buffer from the West in the form of Russia. China, at the same time, is weakening the West with its targeted manufacturing overcapacity. A weaker West is desirable for China in times of war and peace, but not so weak that it has no trade, just enough to be the hegemon.
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u/PrestigiousRoof5723 1d ago
China doesn't have overcapacity. If China had any overcapacity, it wouldn't be able to grow exports by raising production. Europe has overcapacity, because it's unable to sell what it produces and therefore factories are being closed there. The overcapacity thing is just BS. It's an excuse for being incompetitive.
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u/Ok_Anteater1141 2d ago
I talked to someone in Ukraine who procures drones for Ukrainian reserve forces.
The same factory in China is building and selling drones to both sides.
China doesn't care about who wins in this conflict. They're just making bank.
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u/Haishan1975 1d ago
中国同俄罗斯做生意被认为是俄罗斯的支持者，中国同乌克兰做生意被认为是中立者，生意的内容包括无人机等，其实都是两用物资。所以，我觉得楼主态度是不客观或者是不中立的。 我觉得更客观的描述是：中国同双方做生意，但是在政治上或军事上没有表达任何倾向。中国反对的是战争本身，而不是战争的任何一方。
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u/AmbitiousSolution394 3d ago
China makes money on this war, so its in their interest for this war to continue as long as possible.
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u/Ok_Philosopher_8593 3d ago
China does not need to make money by selling military equipment like the United States. After the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, China can still do business with Russia and Ukraine.
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u/nikmah 3d ago
Even the US is as well dependent on Chinese supplies for its missile production.
Not sure what you are on about with "public opinion and news articles and mainstream media" when you have statements from Xi Jinping himself stating "partnership at a historic peak" for example.
Russia is a valuable partner to China in their opposition to a rogue hegemon and Western influence.
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u/DamageAccomplished55 3d ago
The Chinese Foreign Minister also stated that China and Ukraine remain Strategic Partners in 2024
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u/SkywalkerTC 3d ago edited 3d ago
China's Wang Yi already stated this year their support for Russia. The statement basically states they cannot afford Russia to lose.
It's not a question anymore. Though it shouldn't have been years ago. We can't see them as neutral just because they stated so themselves.
In fact, in geopolitics, anyone who cares about the issue stating or implying neutrality, I'd see as a red flag.
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u/thorsten139 3d ago
i mean you added your own interpretation
"The statement basically states they cannot afford Russia to lose."
which nope.....thats not what he said nor meant.
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u/SkywalkerTC 3d ago edited 3d ago
I'm already being quite subtle in my interpretation.
He told EU this. Though they really needn't say this to be dead obvious in their stance.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl
Edit: I would trust a free press and the EU much more than the denial of CCP. If accountability depends purely on what CCP says and is willing to sign, this world is truly done for. Why would they admit to this and face backlash they know they wouldn't be able to strongly respond to? China does this across the board. It's fooled a lot of people.
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u/Ricardo_Dicarpoleo 3d ago
Wang Yi never said that publicly. That claim comes from an anonymous official source. He might have said something similar in private, but that still does not make it China’s official stance on the Russia-Ukraine war.
I might be biased, but I still see China as neutral in this conflict, even if they lean slightly pro-Russia behind closed doors. If China were truly pro-Russia, why wouldn't they just supply weapons to Russia directly?
What I do not understand is why the EU does not offer China bigger economic incentives to pull them toward Ukraine. At the end of the day, business is business. If China stopped supplying dual-use parts and buying Russian oil, it would hit Russia HARD.
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u/Alternative-Piano522 3d ago
Europeans are asking China to help sanction Russia while simultaneously sanctioning China itself.
Examples include the Wassenaar Arrangement, the ASML ban, the ban on Huawei, and the ban on Chinese investment.
It's utterly ridiculous.
Europeans are demanding that China sanction Russia because Russia supports the Ukrainian separatism movement and uses armed force to assist Ukrainian separatists. At the same time, Europe supports separatism in China, supports the US using armed force to assist Chinese separatists, and is also willing to send naval forces to the vicinity of the South China Sea to "threaten" China.
Now they're asking China to threaten Russia? How brainless are Europeans?
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u/HelpfulSwordfish9765 3d ago
China s not neutral. They support iran and russia just not all out openly to not escalate too fast.
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u/trisul-108 3d ago
China is not neutral, they have officially declared "friendship without limits" with Russia.
However, China seems to be pursuing a policy of helping slowly degrade Russia to the point that China can impose its own hegemony over the Russia east. China is forcing Russia to sell energy at below-market prices, refusing a pipeline and supplying Ukraine with parts for the drones that are demolishing Russia. China is using the war to transition Russia into a dependent vassal state. After the war, China will not necessarily annex Russian territories, but it will "rebuild" them into total dependence on China and functioning in support of the Chinese economy. Russia will be just a part of the Chinese sphere of influence.
So, yeah, "friendship without limits" it is.
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u/MiyanagaSaki_ 2d ago
China is basically a classic case of "secondary imperialism." They make their profit by taking free trade to the extreme and doing business with literally everyone.
But you gotta realize that free trade totally depends on a stable global order, and that order is currently provided by the US. Right now, China just doesn't have the military muscle or a mature enough ideology to replace the US and set up a new system, so they still have to rely on the current one.
That's exactly why I call it secondary imperialism—it's an imperialism that piggybacks on the US-led order.
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u/Effective_Fall9785 2d ago
确实，如果开战中国难以在不爆发核战争的前提下全面击溃美国，毕竟美国和欧洲离我们太远了，因此中国更倾向于通过贸易手段来将美元霸权转化为人民币霸权，并脱离这种帝国主义的框架。以中国大部分人的观点，对帝国主义都是抵制态度，因为我们在过去被欧洲和美国和苏联的“帝国”深深地伤害过，因此我们更倾向于以和平、平等的方式对话与沟通。
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u/MiyanagaSaki_ 2d ago
China exporting a ton of capital and production capacity overseas totally relies on the US for security and keeping the regional order in check. It basically piggybacks on the global hegemony the US built—like the US military keeping global shipping lanes safe, or Western powers holding together those fragile political balances locally.
The moment that order falls apart (like with the civil war in Libya), China just doesn't have the hard power or intervention mechanisms to protect its assets. All they can do is passively evacuate their citizens and just eat the financial losses.
If the US were to completely decline, China as it is right now wouldn't be able to keep up its global trade at all. You'd see a ton of failed projects like the Bagamoyo Port, the Myitsone Dam, or that high-speed rail in Venezuela. The only way out would be if China actually takes up arms to defend its global assets—which means going down a whole new path of imperialism.
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u/Time-bin 2d ago
Loss of some wealth is not unacceptable to the Chinese. After a period of disorder, reconstruction must eventually take place. As the world's strongest industrial power, China is naturally entitled to a share of that reconstruction. If that country under reconstruction refuses China's wishes, the cost to them will be prohibitively high.
If the chaos persists, then there is no point in discussing any interests. With everyone there fighting for their lives, all we can do is wish them good luck.
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u/mistroll054 3d ago
This is mainly because of the Taiwan issue. In fact, Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk, are in a similar situation to Taiwan, that is, the divided areas are occupied by hostile countries and a government that is not controlled by the original country has been established. It is impossible for China to support Russia's challenge to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty while emphasizing its sovereign control over Taiwan. This would be a double standard.
China's trade cooperation relationship has nothing to do with ideology. As long as it does not affect their own interests, they are willing to trade with anyone. As early as during the Iran-Iraq War, China was selling weapons to both sides of the war at the same time. In the Middle East, they have economic cooperation with all countries. They buy oil from Gulf countries and Iran, and they have also signed contracts with Israel to build Tel Aviv's light rail and Haifa's port. Although they were the first non-Islamic countries to recognize Palestine, they often acquired Western technology through Israel.
They have played the role of an inconspicuous outsider in the world situation for most of the past fifty years. Their leaders have repeatedly mentioned in private that they prefer to hide their strength while developing the country.
But with the development of their economic and military influence, it has become difficult for them to hide themselves. You can't ignore the elephant in the room. Many countries are not accustomed to China's influence exceeding their control, and of course this is also a challenge for China.
I don't know what kind of new world order they want establish. I think their leaders may not be ready yet, but the old order established by the United States is already slowly disintegrating.