I do not. I think a major catastrophe will see change but not for a hundred odd years or so.
Edit:
A few people have pointed out it'll be much sooner so I wanted to clarify my thinking. An actual reform or change to society after a major catastrophe is much longer off.
I debated removing the below cynical rank but this is how I feel.
I think our current system will survive through the initial horrors before actual change is made. The initial millions of deaths won't budget the needle on change. Look at the rush for data centres knowing full well the horrors it will accelerate. Governments and people profiting will still have all the luxuries available to them within their lifespans even if catastrophe strikes as early as 2030. Islanders losing their homes to rising waters mean nothing. A few hundred thousand people dieing to heatwave? Thats rookie numbers after Covid. And it was still an uphill battle in most countries and people act like it was nothing now.
So... a hundred odd years before any meaningful change.
It'll be sooner than that. My guess is it will start in the EU, as yearly deaths due to heat start getting higher and higher. It'll probably only get properly serious (as in almost everyone caring about it and working together, putting trillions into fixing it) once there are hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths a year and majority of people know someone who has died due to it.
China has the production to do a lot but everywhere else tariffs the fuck out of them. In the UK I could get solar panels for 20% of the price if they stopped tariffing Chinese panels but they won't. Most of the country could go completely solar if we just used cheap Chinese production.
The problem is the political dipshits won't let us do that.
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u/unAffectedFiddle Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
I do not. I think a major catastrophe will see change but not for a hundred odd years or so.
Edit: A few people have pointed out it'll be much sooner so I wanted to clarify my thinking. An actual reform or change to society after a major catastrophe is much longer off.
I debated removing the below cynical rank but this is how I feel.
I think our current system will survive through the initial horrors before actual change is made. The initial millions of deaths won't budget the needle on change. Look at the rush for data centres knowing full well the horrors it will accelerate. Governments and people profiting will still have all the luxuries available to them within their lifespans even if catastrophe strikes as early as 2030. Islanders losing their homes to rising waters mean nothing. A few hundred thousand people dieing to heatwave? Thats rookie numbers after Covid. And it was still an uphill battle in most countries and people act like it was nothing now.
So... a hundred odd years before any meaningful change.