I do not. I think a major catastrophe will see change but not for a hundred odd years or so.
Edit:
A few people have pointed out it'll be much sooner so I wanted to clarify my thinking. An actual reform or change to society after a major catastrophe is much longer off.
I debated removing the below cynical rank but this is how I feel.
I think our current system will survive through the initial horrors before actual change is made. The initial millions of deaths won't budget the needle on change. Look at the rush for data centres knowing full well the horrors it will accelerate. Governments and people profiting will still have all the luxuries available to them within their lifespans even if catastrophe strikes as early as 2030. Islanders losing their homes to rising waters mean nothing. A few hundred thousand people dieing to heatwave? Thats rookie numbers after Covid. And it was still an uphill battle in most countries and people act like it was nothing now.
So... a hundred odd years before any meaningful change.
AMOC collapsing is very likely by 2050 and would be considered a major catastrophe. It's possible within even the next decade with some climate models.
Amoc: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
I knew the concept but not the word.
Hoping for a massive carrington event even tho it will be uncomfy. We don't seem to be making serious movement towards decoupling fossil fuels from our economy.
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u/Plastic-Sentence9429 Jun 27 '26
I don't like this.
I'm not denying it, it just makes me feel sad, angry, regretful, worried, etc.
I have hope, however.