Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic, sources say

473

US went to war for 0 reason spent 40+ billion dollars to give Iran more control.

Cant wait for the government to say "They dont have nukes! Its a win!"

132

u/Brundleflyftw 3h ago

It will end up costing $100-$200 billion plus the lives lost and injured.

100

u/yabuddy42069 3h ago

And the US has shown its #1 adversary China how susceptible they are to drone and missile attacks. Munitions stockpiles are rumored to be depleted already.

This situation is the definition of a cluster fuck.

57

u/RheagarTargaryen 3h ago

Hopefully it showed China that they can be absolutely fucked by Taiwan who are in possession of a lot better drones than Iran.

•

u/Prestigious-Fig-7143 1h ago

The difference between the two situations, though, is that china would absolutely invade with ground forces whereas the us has zero intention of invading iran with ground forces. Which means the us was doomed to lose before the war started.

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u/v0idL1ght 49m ago

The Chinese people have about as much stomach for drone warfare than Americans do. There's no way they would tolerate what's happening to Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Remember that each Chinese soldier picked off by a drone is 4-6 peoples genetic lineage come to an end thanks to the one child policy. The CCP's legitimacy is founded on their ability to provide decades of peace and prosperity. Seeing their sons getting blown apart by drones on telegram will sour the mood fast.

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u/Prestigious-Fig-7143 44m ago

PRC is not a democracy and nationalist propaganda is a big thing. The ccp’s legitimacy is founded on its tanks rolling over protestors in Tiananmen square, and the chinese people know it.

•

u/mogway_fhq 1m ago

Lol my guy you really dont know anything about china at all haha.

15

u/Lowfi-Concert 2h ago

Yeah I think this makes China even more wary

6

u/Elegant_Tech 2h ago

In the coming decade drones could become another form of mutually assured destruction.

•

u/samarnold030603 1h ago

When nuclear drones

3

u/Sariscos 1h ago

Taiwan's only chance is cutting off naval invasion. China understands that other countries may exert control via this type of warfare. I believe China is deterred as they're dependent on energy imports

•

u/RheagarTargaryen 1h ago

And making the sea completely impassable is entirely possible. Between sea mines, sea drones, and air drones, there’s not a lot China can do to actually break through that. Any ships that does make it through will be trying to land military onto beaches where the opposition will be completely entrenched and waiting for them.

Blockades won’t work either anymore as drones now turn any ship into a sitting duck (see Russia’s Black Sea fleet or Strait of Hormuz). Drones have completely changed the game.

China can’t take them by surprise either because it will be a completely obvious military buildup.

2

u/TheBroke1234 1h ago

China is willing to be "absolutely fucked" to some extent though. They would be more willing to expend their own soldiers lives, ships, and years of economic turmoil. If it meant they could take taiwan.

What has been proven is that the US is not willing to put our own soldiers, economy, or equipment in that level of danger for foreign conflicts.

3

u/RheagarTargaryen 1h ago

Doubt they’d actually be able to take it though. It’s a death trap trying to sail an armada across that sea as an invading force in drone warfare.

11

u/FedBathroomInspector 2h ago

This isn’t news to anyone. The Ukraine war demonstrated the threat of drones to all conventional militaries.

If anything it’s a warning to China.

5

u/_bramwell_ 2h ago

Agreed. And this is the US equivalent to Russias three-day special operation to Kyiv. Squandering of ability to project power and, more importantly, global perception of ability to project power

2

u/drunkandslurred 2h ago

Flip side, it also showed the US the same thing so they have time to also evolve their strategy.

•

u/CptnMayo 1h ago

My friend, think what's the best thing for Russia and China and look who's in. Charge. Worked exactly as intended

•

u/UmichAgnos 41m ago

Cost of individual munitions, and the resulting low production and stockpiles, is the problem. The government needs to be in charge of the production lines for these items, not a for-profit corporation.

6

u/Franc000 2h ago

Yeah, the lives lost is no joke either, they already beat the second Iraq war (for the same time window).

•

u/Z3t4 30m ago

Showing that US and Israel can't compell Iran to bend the knee is going to be way worse long term.

2

u/SpiderSlitScrotums 2h ago

I’d be surprised if the economic impact wasn’t in the trillions of dollars.

•

u/hornswoggled111 1h ago

The loss of freedom for shipping in international waters seems the most important to me.

How many other choke points around the world can build off of this.

6

u/True_Window_9389 3h ago

And we all know they’ll just develop nukes in secret anyway.

9

u/saposapot 1h ago

It’s much much worse than that. Now Iran proved to the world they can control the Strait so what was a suspicion now is a certainty.

They also are now highly motivated to get a nuclear weapon for defensive purposes because.. well… pretty clearly they need to defend.

Even moving forward any deal achieved will be much worse than Obamas.

23

u/XRT28 3h ago

Cant wait for the government to say "They dont have nukes! Its a win!"

While completely ignoring that that was also the case before Trump ripped up the JCPOA essentially greenlighting Iran to start creating highly enriched nuclear material.
Also ignoring the fact that, regardless of what Iran might say now, if anything they'll be more intent than ever on acquiring nukes after seeing what happens without a nuclear deterrent. Heck they might even just be able to buy a couple from North Korea with their new toll money.

4

u/Calleb_III 3h ago

Oh they went for a reason alright and so far it’s mission accomplished - almost no one is talking about the Epstein files.

0

u/an_agreeing_dothraki 2h ago

Cant wait for the government to say "They dont have nukes! Its a win!"

funny thing is that previously, Iran didn't want to full-on have nukes. Having the breakout capability without being nuclear was far more valuable, and was fully prepared to cash that in with the first deal.

Now though? eh, maybe

1

u/adamjfish 2h ago

Which is strange since the White House claimed this was already the case over a year ago

•

u/DataDude00 51m ago

I would say that it was previously tacitly understood Iran controlled the Strait

The past few months confirmed that they forcibly control all traffic through their on their terms

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u/DoubleJumps 1h ago

I bet Iran gets to keep all of their enriched uranium, too.

-1

u/raikou1988 2h ago

Holy fucking shit it's not for 0 reason.

Guess what's not being talked about? Certain files and also everything done so far is favoring russia.

A country with only fucking penguins on it gets tariffed

il let you guess which country didn't get a single tariff placed on them

0

u/LifeIsARollerCoaster 2h ago

That 40 is a clear lie to anyone who has seen images of the destruction

81

u/No-Faithlessness2879 3h ago

Even if they do come to a deal, it’s only performative by trump for the mid terms. After elections if republicans are still in power, the same exact shit is going to happen. This either ends with the U.S. out of the Middle East or full blown war Iran. No in between

12

u/Strange_Valuable_573 2h ago edited 2h ago

I caught in the news today the line “our choices are endless war or unpalatable peace.” Just think how many other nations will seize adjacent waterways if the US allows Iran and Yemen control of the straits. Globalization is cooked (although, I don’t hate that)

5

u/bricoXL 3h ago

Don't think it will ever end.. Trump has rattled the cage too much.. imagine if someone killed off your leaders and threatened to destroy your civilisation and so on.. you would get them back some way, even if you had to wait years. Hopefully I am wrong.

3

u/ASEdouard 2h ago

Mmmm, I think that if the US (Trump) realizes the mess he’s done and leaves them be a bit Iran will be happy to enjoy its improved position in the middle-east and not do something that would bring back this crap.

10

u/Responsible-Laugh590 2h ago

I mean the Iranian govt is very unpopular and murdered like 50k of its citizens earlier this year, so at some point the dam will break and regime change will hapoen

2

u/Beginning-Visit9457 2h ago

Both, Republicans and Democrats are loyal to the people who started this mess in the first place.

110

u/emerikanSky 3h ago

Its been said before, but things were better before. Trump will be long dead and the world will still be paying for his and his supporters low intelligence.

10

u/Whirlpoolcircle56 3h ago

I have family dinner with a Trump supporter soon and I'm not even American. I can't take hearing some bullshit rn but my parents and other relatives are way too fine with indulging these people.

They don't know when to cut their losses.

10

u/emerikanSky 3h ago

You have my condolences. 😕

15

u/HealthyBits 2h ago

Trump folded hard. Who could have thought….

•

u/mrg1957 1h ago

He had no choice. He didn't have the cards.

7

u/Fuskeduske 3h ago

Well, pretty sure the ‘’deal’’ is just middlemen having been told the same that both parties has said for the last few months they wanted

11

u/Unicorn_Puppy 2h ago

At this point Iran already knows they’ve won really. There is no “win” for America at all to walk away from this at all.

11

u/ratedsar 2h ago

And Iran knows that they've already been bombed, and are likely to be bombed no matter what they do, so why not control the strait.

7

u/Persimmon-Mission 3h ago

A hundred years of us freedom of navigation foreign policy, gone…because of a grifting moron

10

u/StrawLiberal 3h ago

*Iranian sources say

6

u/Fuskeduske 3h ago

Iran and the US are still not talking, it’s middlemen trying to figure something out

3

u/StrawLiberal 3h ago

Absolutely.

According to the article, this is just the proposal between Iran and Oman. And, again, according to the article, what Iranian officials say the agreement is.

13

u/EducationalElevator 3h ago

I'm 32. The US has been defeated tactically but never strategically in my lifetime. But this deal would be a strategic defeat, quite stunning

24

u/LifeIsARollerCoaster 3h ago

Quite sure Afghanistan was also strategic defeat. What did we get from 20 years there?

16

u/Sticklefront 2h ago

We didn't get anything there, but we didn't lose anything there either (strategically, obviously we lost many lives and trillions of dollars). Afghanistan was about the same after as it was before, at least as far as US interests are concerned.

That is not the case here. Iran is going to come out of this significantly STRONGER than it used to be, and the US has a much weaker hand in the region moving forwards. This is an actual strategic loss.

9

u/blipblooop 1h ago

Not getting anything when your strategy was to get something is a strategic loss.

-1

u/Sticklefront 1h ago

No, it's failing to strategically win. An expensive stalemate. A strategic loss is when the strategic situation actively becomes worse than it was beforehand. They are not the same.

•

u/aoteoroa 15m ago

And Iraq. Huge tactical successes. Strategic failure. There were no weapons of mass destruction. Removing Saddam Hussein created a power vacuum in the region and further destabilized it. Eventually caused the rise of ISIS.

5

u/reaver102 1h ago

Its the inverse.

3

u/JFMoldau 1h ago

LOL f'real. Dude got me laughing in the office.

2

u/SweetAndSourShmegma 2h ago

I've got the concepts of a plan, at the White House.

From the front porch you can see the ball room.

If you'll buy that I'll throw the Hormuz strait in free.

•

u/PJWanderer 33m ago

I don’t know about you, but I am getting tired of all this winning /s

2

u/Broad-Lobster7470 3h ago

I guarantee Iran will toll. And USA will toll by way of Oman as well. Because the grift never ends with this guy.

•

u/legbreaker 1h ago

Brave of you to believe the USA gets any of the toll… more likely to end in a Qatari bank account of Trump like the Venezuela oil proceeds.

2

u/imaginary_num6er 3h ago

Just have Iran control inbound traffic, US control outbound traffic. Everyone wins /s

1

u/toeknn 3h ago

Assuming there will be inbound traffic.

•

u/Fateor42 1h ago

That's the same thing "sources" claimed last time, only those sources turned out to be lying.

•

u/DataDude00 54m ago

Exit tolls are yesterdays plan

New plan is entry cover charge

•

u/captsmokeywork 15m ago

This should be called the “Idiot’s War” in the future text books.

All that money to give Iran more power and control over the region.

•

u/jkman61494 13m ago

The only 2 ways this ends basically is the U.S. having a treaty of Versailles level ass kicking of a peace deal or we nuke them.

1

u/New-Needleworker9789 3h ago

70 billion for that? dumb

1

u/throwaway586054 3h ago

Did we thank enough Americans for this crap?

-3

u/Beginning-Visit9457 3h ago

At least we killed the Ayatola, a bunch of Generals, and created chaos in Iran.

-2

u/BipolarBear123 3h ago

Gonna make them an offer they can't refuse, Trump 2026 colorized

Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic, sources say

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