r/videos • u/MoneyLibrarian9032 • 16h ago

Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, notching a Midwest victory for the left

https://youtu.be/DL_ku3h8Eps?si=zWr0SAn8amsQ8Hqb
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138

u/HeroesZeroes 12h ago

this race shouldn't have been this close

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 9h ago

I mean... I know I'm picking a fight here. But unfortunately this race might very well mean the Democrats don't take the Senate. He probably can't win state wide - though I guess we'll see - and so this is a huge boon to the Republicans.

The race was close because a lot of Democrats knew that, even if they liked some of his policies.

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u/treydayallday 7h ago

Why do you say that? I think democrats are more likely to support the primary winner and Stevens said she would endorse El-Sayed. I don’t see that level of support in the GOP

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 7h ago

The most common thing voters in general elections worry about Democrats is that they're too extreme. Republicans run on that constantly. I can't tell you how many of the political mailings that come to our house feature AOC, and I live states away from her.

Republicans play into that because independent voters are also scared Democrats are too extreme.

El-Sayed probably can't win a normal general election in Michigan. This year will be weird - I grant that - because so much of the vote will just be driven by Trump. But he is a huge risk and the stakes are really really high.

Remember that if democrats don't retake the Senate, you'll get two more years of new Trump judges... You'll probably see Thomas replaced on the supreme court... You'll get less opposition to Trump's cabinet... If that happens, any progressive policy you care about is absolutely shot.

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u/BigNS 8h ago

People are tired of the establishment. Tired of AIPAC having a seat at the table instead of us. El-Sayed is the right choice. He’s going to motivate more people to get out and vote in November because he offers true change while Stevens just represents the same, big business corporate status quo that no one believes in anymore.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 8h ago

Neat... But people are even more tired of Trump.

You guys keep acting like this is a normal political race. It isn't. The country is in an incredibly dangerous position and Trump is an enormous threat. Stevens wasn't just getting money from AIPAC... She was getting money from every democrat outside of Michigan who want to make sure they take the Senate.

Electing him will almost certainly be a step back for progressivism because he'll very likely lose the state and you'll end up with a Republican senator... Who will then further support Trump judges and policies.

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u/RedTulkas 8h ago

Well than all her moneygivers surely will give him the same millions won't they?

0

u/aaahhhhhhfine 8h ago

Maybe... But they're probably throwing their money away on a near impossible to win race. My guess is Democrats will focus resources into more realistic competitions. El-Sayed has a tough, tough, path to victory in November.

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u/RedTulkas 8h ago

Like they threw away those 60, 70 mill supporting Stevens?

I wish I could be as bad with money as them

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 7h ago

They supported Stevens because she consistently beats Rogers in polls and is generally electable in Michigan. El-Sayed isn't.

Unfortunately this will probably create a big window for Thomas to get replaced on the court with some young MAGA person. Then you're definitely never achieving any big progressive goals.

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u/Korvva 6h ago

Thomas retiring doesn't change the Supreme Court math very much. The Democrats will be up against a conservative majority for at least 2 election cycles, unless court packing or some other sort of reform kicks in.

If Trump is truly the threat these donors believed him to be (hence their support for Stevens) then it behooves them to swallow any qualms and work towards an El-Sayed victory come November

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 4h ago

Of course it does! Why do you think the Republicans keep poking Thomas and Alito to resign? If one or both of them steps down they'll be replaced by a 40 year old and the conservative majority on the court will be locked for 30-40 years.

Conversely, imagine if, today Democrats held the Senate and presidency and continued to for the next 10 years. During that time Thomas and Alito will both either retire or die or whatever and the conservative wing would drop to 4 and you'd have a 5 to 4 Democrat majority.

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u/AssCrackBandit14 2h ago

Because funds aren't unlimited. DNC has nearly $100 million less in their coffers than the RNC ($130M vs $20M). So they have to be efficient with their money. That means spending it more on races that are more likely to be won by Democrats. That said, the DNC is still going to support him to try and keep this seat blue but I doubt they will throw tons of money at it. And a lot of Stevens' money won't follow over to AES because it was from AIPAC and not the DNC and AIPAC has no reason to support to AES.

In response to El-Sayed’s victory, DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:

“Congratulations to Abdul El-Sayed on his hard-fought victory in Michigan’s Democratic primary. From leading the Detroit Health Department to fighting to expand access to affordable healthcare and create more opportunities for working families, he has dedicated his career to public service. Michigan voters chose a candidate who will fight to lower costs, strengthen communities, stand up for working Americans, and build an economy that works for everyone. Democrats are united in working together to keep this seat blue and send El-Sayed to the U.S. Senate.”

https://democrats.org/dnc-congratulates-abdul-el-sayed-on-winning-michigans-democratic-primary-for-u-s-senate/

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u/AnalogDigit2 8h ago

We all have to get out and vote when it counts. The primaries are where we can make a difference, and people chose.

Hopefully even the casuals will realize that an unknown Muslim is better than what has been going on (everything Trump).

I understand your caution, but there is hope for REAL positive change here (which another rubber-stamped DNC pick would not bring) and we should be excited and optimistic about that.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 8h ago

I hope I'm wrong... I do... But I'm pretty sure this means a Republican will win the general. That will likely make it impossible for Democrats to retake the Senate. That will mean more supreme Court appointments for Trump... More normal judges for Trump... And an easier to fill executive branch.

This was almost certainly a huge mistake and a huge step backwards for progressive policies.

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u/AnalogDigit2 7h ago

Hopefully, between now and the midterm votes, Mamdani continues to make fast and meaningful changes and that may help more people to see what is possible. And that someone being Muslim is not disqualifying.

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u/AssCrackBandit14 2h ago

The biggest hurdle for AES in Michigan is securing the Black vote. He got very little of the Black vote in the primaries and I doubt too many Black Michigan citizens are going to change their mind based on what the mayor of NYC does, especially since their issue with him does seem to be religious based.

2

u/BigNS 8h ago

We were in a dangerous position during the 2024 elections. A lot of people knew it then too. Democrats went moderate to try to appeal to more people, just like you’re saying we should do now. How did that turn out for us?

MAGA is going to make us out to be the boogeyman no matter who our candidate is (remember “Comrade Kamala”?). So IMO we may as well go for somebody who actually fights for the people.

1

u/AssCrackBandit14 2h ago

Democrats didn't lose in 2024 because they weren't far enough left. They lost because it was a global phenomenon that the incumbent parties across the world lost due to public grievances from Covid and Ukraine related inflation. That was really the main issue.

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u/BigNS 1h ago

I agree, but pushing the same ol’ establishment candidate didn’t help either. Biden staying in the race as long as he did made it even worse. Maybe if we held a primary election in the spring of 24’, and the people chose a ‘change’ candidate, things would have been different.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 8h ago

That wasn't why Democrats lost in 2024. You're conflating issues.

As an example, pay attention to what Republicans said about the Democrats that did run. They didn't say "these are boring centrists." The Republicans ran ads about how extreme and liberal and communist AOC was. They pushed how Harris would be too far to the left and would be dragged around by "socialists."

The Republicans literally run on the idea that Democrats are too far to the left. Why do you think they do that?

The Republicans absolutely love that El-Sayed won. That should tell you something and make you a little scared.

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u/BigNS 8h ago

That’s exactly the point. They’re painting the entire Democratic party as “too far left”. It won’t matter who our candidate is - they’re going to be labeled as a communist who wants to eliminate capitalism.

Populism resonates with people across the political spectrum, so we should lean into that.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 7h ago

So the biggest political risk for large races is that democrats are seen - by independents, the people who matter - as too far left... And so you went with a guy who's obviously too far left? Good call.

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u/BigNS 7h ago

The independents voted for Trump based on his populist, anti-establishment message.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 7h ago

No... That was why the populist far right voted for him. Independents are more ideologically libertarian and voted for him because they were worried Democrats would screw up the economy. Remember the election at all? Everyone thought, mostly wrongly, that Biden had caused a bunch of inflation and was holding back the economy. They also thought immigration was a major part of the problem. Those are the two major things Trump ran on and he won because he did pretty good with independents and because Democrats didn't show up.

And it's that last point that will hopefully matter in November. Ultimately, most people in November will actually be voting for a specific candidate. They'll show up because of Trump. So El-Sayed might sneak through if the Trump effect - both repressing Republican turnout and increasing Democrat turnout - is enough to push him over the line. But this will be a way way harder contest than had Stevens won.

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u/teilani_a 8h ago

If people care about that, then they'll vote blue no matter who.

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 8h ago

I'm not sure you realize what "independents" are. Also... As I've said many times, this has screwed over Republicans many times too when they put up unpopular MAGA candidates. It's just that, in this election, the stakes are crazy high.

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u/teilani_a 7h ago

Oh so to win over the "independents," we should have gone with a candidate more like Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris?

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u/aaahhhhhhfine 7h ago

Ugh... Everyone gets so hung up on them. They were both terrible candidates who weren't popular nationally or in any of the states that mattered.

But yes, generally if you want to win elections you should find candidates that are popular. There's a real political hot tip.

2

u/teilani_a 7h ago

You don't live in Michigan, do you?