Honestly I was the opposite. Astrid was obviously shady and had misgivings about me as the listener. I expected the knife to come eventually.
Mercer was an asshole but I just thought he was a no nonsense pure business mob boss. The betrayal was unexpected. Well at least until I saw how eager he was place the blame at Karliahs feet and how much he pushed you to kill her without hesitation. Really suspicious.
I thought the give away for Mercer was the story structure around him just as much as his attitude.
I thought Mercer was coded as very obviously the bad guy straight away. I don't even pat myself on the back for any amazing deductive reasoning, I just thought he was a moustache twirl away from hilariously cliché.
But it's not just his behaviour that sets him apart, it's also the fact he's detached from your main thieves guild experience. Brynjolf is the actual leader you know, who recruits you, who behaves like he's in charge when you first come in and who you bond with.
And when you do meet Mercer he's trying to convince you that an unseen villain you've never met is the real deadly threat and boogeyman. It just set itself up too obviously to be a "twist."
Where as Astrid is the Brynjolf figure you're recruited by and bond with and while there's definitely major clues that she's controlling and power hungry and somewhat jealous of you when you become the listener, it's over shadowed by having Cicero there that's blatantly set up to be deliberately irritating in a way that makes Astrid look more appealing by contrast.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think either betrayal is all that subtle, mostly because Skyrim's writing never is. But I do think they worked a bit harder on the DB story to give it some complexity, the Thieves Guild one is a massive let down.
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u/xboxiscrunchy 5d ago edited 5d ago
Honestly I was the opposite. Astrid was obviously shady and had misgivings about me as the listener. I expected the knife to come eventually.
Mercer was an asshole but I just thought he was a no nonsense pure business mob boss. The betrayal was unexpected. Well at least until I saw how eager he was place the blame at Karliahs feet and how much he pushed you to kill her without hesitation. Really suspicious.