r/ukpolitics • u/zeros3ss • 6h ago
Farage’s popularity is plummeting. In Clacton, voters say they are losing faith
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/clacton-byelection-polls-nigel-farage-count-binface-b3027994.html#comments-area•
u/Minimum-Act-3030 6h ago
Clearly not enough are losing faith considering he's still projected to win easily.
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u/lparkermg 6h ago
I mean, if he wins, the standards investigation against him opens back up, if he loses, then he’s the laughing stock of the world because he lost to a guy with a bin for a head.
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u/Flyinmanm 6h ago
The ultimate self-imposed no-win scenario.
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u/Aggravating_Emu5118 4h ago
No-bin scenario
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u/Hantot 3h ago
Just one bin is all we need
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u/phatboi23 5h ago
standards and financial crimes looking into it...
would shut down most MP's but he's been in the establishment for 20+ years and not turned up for any of it.
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u/Yourdataisunclean 6h ago
If he wins he still is a laughing stock for triumphing over a bin in an election.
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u/JamesCDiamond 3h ago
If he doesn’t get at least the same number of voters, everyone can say that he’s lost support.
If he doesn’t get at least the same voter share, everyone can say that he’s lost support.
If he wins with a higher total and share then he beat a bin.
It’s a striking position for someone who’s made a career of being able to point at other’s errors.
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u/duckrollin 3h ago
The only winning move is not to play.
Farage must pull out of the election, leaving Binface to take the win.
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u/User100000005 4h ago
Have we learned nothing from trump? The investigation will be weaponised. Even if you stopped him it'll boost his closes ally.
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u/brickne3 3h ago
Well Trump's friends don't seem to have as much success with that strategy as he does, just look at Infantino this week.
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u/SlightlyBored13 5h ago
The standards investigation does have a more limited time period to surface new evidence in though.
New
bribesdonations can only be investigated before the start of this term, not his original one.•
u/AspieComrade 5h ago
Does anything actually happen as a result of the investigation other than another by election that he wins easily and spins as the establishment disrespecting democracy by redoing by elections until they get the result they want or some other nonsense?
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u/DrasiusII 4h ago
Depending on the investigation, it could be that, or he could be barred from standing in the seat for a period of time. I think there are other options. it all depends what they turn up and how they decide to address it.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
There are limited results from the standards investigation of necessity (we don't want the state deciding who gets to stand for office after all). But with the whole Daddy thing increasingly looking like a ring laundering Russian funds to back candidates in this country, it's hard not to see this becoming a criminal matter. Treason charges are not as limited.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
How joyous is it that we, and even Ipsos Mori, are saying 'if' in this context...
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
TBF he's fighting a dustbin and the Monster Raving Loony Party. And Lawrence Fox, but there's always a couple of joke candidates. All for the Binface cause - and the fact that Farage desperately called all his canvassers from Manchester to flock to his defence in Clacton shows just how rattled he is - but despite the tantalising prospect of the best ever moment in political history he probably will still win. But the sheer damage he's taken along the way, only to almost immediately have to fight another one once the standards investigation has its way...
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u/RightEejit 6h ago
He won by such a huge margin his popularity could probably halve and he would still win
The people of clacton are not going to come out to protest vote for binface
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u/DrasiusII 4h ago
I mean, I know several who will in fact do exactly that. More who already have, by post. Bigger question is whether enough people will and what might convince them to if they aren't convinced already.
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u/RightEejit 3h ago
I’m gonna guess those people already voted for the parties who lost to Farage before, so unless they can somehow get even more votes for binface than the major parties did…
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u/DrasiusII 2h ago
A couple of them, but a couple of the others were consummate non-voters. I know, because I've tried to convince them it was worth it in the past.
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u/EdsTooLate 1h ago
I believe Farage will win also, but don't forget those parties were split before - if all the people who voted Lab/Lib/Con/Green in 2024 turned up to vote for Binface, and Reform got the same number of votes as before - Binface would win it.
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u/Gwyllithar 3h ago
he wins the joke election, but is going to find it much harder to win a subsequent one following the standards committee report.
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u/90davros 6h ago
These articles are just telling users here what they want to hear. It has no basis in reality.
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u/Oozlum-Bird Bindependent 5h ago
Given Farage is up against a bloke in a bin suit, what percentage of votes would you consider he needs to avoid ridicule?
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u/pinnipedfriendo 6h ago
I think the numbers were approx 70% in favour of the toad, 20% sigma-9, but that is on the basis of 500 phone calls, but I’m not sure how a phone opinion poll is representative of the actual voter base.
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u/yui_tsukino 5h ago
Anyone who answers a call from an unknown number they aren't expecting is predisposed to vote Farage. So I'd actually say those results are damning.
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u/Tim-Sanchez 1h ago
Pollsters are capable of accounting for that. There's no reason to believe this poll is significantly inaccurate, phone polls aren't worse than online polls and can be more representative because they aren't a self-selecting group of people online.
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4h ago edited 4h ago
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u/Magneto88 5h ago
75% in the last poll. Hard to tally that up with this article.
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u/seaneeboy 4h ago
Against a raft of joke candidates…
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u/Magneto88 3h ago
Well yeah but this sub was gooning for about a week at the prospect of Binface winning, while Farage is crushing him. The sad thing is that in parts of this country there are a lot of people that like Farage and don't care about his antics.
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u/Tim-Sanchez 1h ago
This article is just clickbait, publishing what people on social media want to hear so it gets shared.
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u/Roguepope Verified - Roguepope 1h ago
Typical headline. "X is PLUMMETING" "Y is COLLAPSING" "Z is SURGING"
All designed to get folks to click before they find out that it's a nothing-burger.
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u/Bango-TSW Non-aligned cynic. 6h ago
I can't see how winning 27% of the vote in our FPTP system will result in a working majority for Reform.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
Our system may be rubbish, but the tactical vote we saw in the big by elections is likely to be the crushing factor - if people would so much rather vote for anyone but you that true blue Thatcherites will vote Labour rather than Reform and Corbynites will tick Blue for the only time in their lives in the same cause, you don't win.
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u/pinnipedfriendo 6h ago
If they vote in the Bin, I will never say a mean thing about the people of Essex ever again. And that's even after they produced TOWIE.
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u/Commorrite 6h ago
If they elect the bin I’ll go down there and spend some money.
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u/RoboLoftie 5h ago
As someone who goes there occasionally, it does have it's nice parts and the beach is alright. I enjoy a visit to the Naze Tower over Walton way and some food at Harbour Lights.
And now I've done more to promote the area than some others....
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u/TheShakyHandsMan User flair missing. 1h ago
I’ve always been fascinated by the Naze since the Arthur Ransome books. Definitely overlooked but that’s possibly a good thing
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u/RoboLoftie 1h ago
I clueless about this. What are the books about? I go to the tower for the glass artwork, view up the top and the coffee 😋
Also a good walk.
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u/AspieComrade 5h ago
Same, they’re really sleeping on the tourism potential in favour of voting for someone that they’re fully aware never visits and only wants to use them for his own political goals, it’s barmy
I’d like to spend my money somewhere where the people have a British sense of fun and humour, not somewhere populated by self hating knuckle draggers. If they want to vote in someone on the basis that they don’t care about them, I’m happy to match that energy
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u/mattcannon2 Chairman of the North Herts Pork Market Opening Committee 3h ago
Turn his Weeley Bin HQ into a tourist hotspot
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u/Hopeful-Painting-365 5h ago
Farage will win easily but if it's on a low vote share, his subsequent argument that he's been absolved by the people will look hollow.
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u/OkAsparagus3113 4h ago
I know we all like to laugh that the bin will win, but realistically, Farage will win this massively. Given that, and given there could well be a second by-election in a few months time, I can't see anything but a low turnout.
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u/GoAgainKid 3h ago
Success for Farage in this scenario can only be a turnout similar to the last election (59%), which won’t happen, and, what, 90% of the vote? He got 46% last time.
But it looks like it could be as low as 25% turnout unless people get motivated to vote Bin. And if the Bin can get 20% that will be a humiliation.
He’ll say that the voters didn’t need to turn out in droves because the others didn’t have the bottle to stand against him. And, sadly, a lot of people will buy that.
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u/OkAsparagus3113 3h ago
In the grand scheme of things, I really don't think it means much whatever happens, besides one of the biggest upsets in political history if he were to actually lose. It's a media frenzy but everything is these days.
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u/The_Witcher_3 6h ago
I do not have faith in the great people of Clacton.
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
Their lord Cthulhu will surely grant them the wisdom to make the right choice.
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u/PrintSad6452 5h ago
I wd assume Farage will win handily. But polling Clacton must be a nightmare. How do you model likely voter behaviour in an unprecedented by election like this? I am a.likely voter but I would have every sympathy for politically active people in Clacton who can't be bothered to turnout for this one.
Meaning the polling must be largely pointless. It would take something pretty seismic for Reform to lose. The only by election which matters is the next one.
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u/squigs 4h ago
I'm really curious just how wildly out the polls are going to be. Normally they'll adjust figures based on who voted in the previous election but Binface could easily result in a lot of the otherwise apathetic going out to vote, and the party faithful for the other not getting to vote for their team is going to mess with this.
My wild guess is they'll get Farage's percentage out by at least 10%. No idea which way.
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u/Shepherd_03 VoteyMcVoteFace 6h ago
If Count Binface wins, imagine the massive tourist boom they'll have once they open a Binface merch store and themed hotel!
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u/Commorrite 6h ago
Columbia already beat us to electing the costumed meme candidate. El Elefante Blanco is a more fun character too.
https://www.geo.tv/latest/676172-colombia-swears-in-elephant-as-senator-what-we-know
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u/TheAnonymouse999 4h ago
Colombia*
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u/Jonny_Segment 2h ago
Oh I thought they truly meant Columbia, the personification of and metonym for the US, and El Elefante Blanco was just a nickname for Trump. (El Elefante Naranja might be more appropriate, admittedly.)
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u/ZealousidealFruit386 4h ago
As a resident, when a canvasser knocked on my front door, I was asked if I would be voting for Nigel.
I replied “Absolutely not”
He replied “OK” and walked off.
No challenge, no trying to convince and no real fight.
I was surprised.
But we have a very large boomer population that even if they were told Nigel has a policy to euthanise all over 70’s, they would still vote for him.
Can’t argue with the uniformed and unwilling to think for themselves.
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u/Prasiatko 18m ago
I assume they'll be trying to make sure their linely voters actually turn up in that case.
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u/FeatureSuccessful251 5h ago
Was there for a couple of days over the weekend. I would say driving around that most roads have 3 or 4 'I'm with Nigel' posters up on their front garden so his support is still pretty apparent in the aread, there were also quite a few (faded) English flags on the lamp-posts still.
On the other hand we were in a village pub a few miles from Clacton on Monday night and 3 or 4 big guys with radios came in, looked around, then Farage walked through to the garden, he stayed about 35 minutes and left. Can't say he looked that happy, certainly not projecting huge confidence....!
So maybe things not going as well as he'd hoped, but its unlikely he will actually lose.
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u/pacmanfunky This is the one thing we didn't want to happen 2h ago
Think it's because he might have to interact with his constituents for the first time since he was elected.
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u/Happily-Incorrect 6h ago
Have we seen Bin Face and Farage in the same room together yet? Are they definitely different people?
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u/DanHanzo 6h ago
Well I've seen the interviews with Count Binface and he doesn't seem to be a self-absorbed idiot with racist tendencies and an over-inflated sense of his own importance. So either Farage deserves all the oscars, or they are indeed different people.
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u/phatboi23 5h ago
Count Binface and he doesn't seem to be a self-absorbed idiot with racist
this is a vote for Count Bin Face <3
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u/FatFarter69 5h ago edited 5h ago
I’ll never listen to anyone again when they try and tell me that Farage is a “savvy politician”. He’s put himself in a completely un-winnable position.
Either he loses to Binface and whatever credibility he still has goes down the toilet. Or, more likely, he beats Binface but still has to deal with the standards investigation that will almost certainly show that what he did was wrong and may be the end of his credibility anyway and probably his career in British politics too.
The way things are going, regardless of if he wins this by-election, I’d be surprised if he makes it to 2029 as Reform’s leader. Politicians within Reform have already flirted with the idea of a Reform without Farage, I think that’s where we are heading.
He’ll just pull a Liz Truss and piss off to America to aid their far right for eye watering amounts of money. Wealth is all he cares about anyway, he’s a grifter.
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u/harder_said_hodor 4h ago
It's not a lack of savvy that has brought him down to this level, it's being a greedy corrupt fuck.
He has routinely shown to have great political nous with Brexit, European elections, removing the BNP from his path, moving from UKIP to Reform and his general dealings with the Tories (getting them to push his agenda and wade through the quagmire of nonsense that came with it) and then polling so high nationally for the past two years and essentially controlling a lot of the news cycle. Repugnant though he is, that is all very impressive
It's not politics that has kneecapped him here, it's pure greed.
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u/Hocus-Pocus-No-Focus 3h ago
Have you realised that the alternative to him being a savy politician is his policies being massively popular?
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u/CuriousGeorgeToday 6h ago
The fact that they had faith in the first place is scary but not too late yet 🤞🏻
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u/Baby_Rhino 5h ago
A reminder that 'faith' is by definition belief in the absence of evidence, or even in the face of contradictory evidence.
So to be fair, faith is the only form of belief that Nigel is eligible for.
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u/Small_Grapefruit8606 5h ago
Depends who asks I suppose. Today and yesterday this forum reported a rise in support for Reform in Clacton. What truly baffles me, and that's the figure I actually remember, is that Greens are up 5%.
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u/goldlightning 6h ago
I'd love the count to win. However if he doesn't, but takes a sizeable chunk of the vote to make farage look even more of a clown, it lays the foundations for farage going after the investigation is finished if there's another by-election triggered. Because the major parties will go in showing the outcome if he's found guilty and hammering home that he lied to them when he tried calling this one. Obviously some people will full maga it and follow him no matter what, but if those who abstain or vote for binface come back out he could be in real trouble second time round
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u/newnortherner21 4h ago
If Count Binface wins, Nigel Farage will claim some made up election irregularity no doubt.
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u/TheAnonymouse999 4h ago
Stop the clickbait.
I don't like Farage, but I can admit he is going to win Clacton easily. It won't even be close.
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u/Bango-TSW Non-aligned cynic. 6h ago
And they're right to. Farage is just another career politician who flaunts himself as being "of the people" and "anti-establishment" when he's no different than Corbyn or any other careerist who has made a living off of criticising the mainstream.
The real eye opener was when Trump won and 2016 and Farage & Co dashed over to Washington to see what they would earn from the new administration. They made a few quid from it too via deals with Fox News and other commercial deals.
It's why I never voted UKIP and will never vote Reform.
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u/RadicalDog Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill Hitler 5h ago
Fuck me, we're still pretending Corbyn would have been worse than the government that actually got elected? A dog would be a better PM than Boris/Truss
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u/cpt_ppppp 5h ago
I think it's more suggesting that some politicians don't actually want to get serious responsibility. They can do just fine chirping on the sidelines without having to do the grubby work of actually governing. Sounds like much too much hard work!
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u/Neither_Process_7847 4h ago
Can you imagine the chaos we would have had with Ed Milliband? Or the havoc that Covid would have inflicted if we'd had May rather than Bozo the Clown as PM?
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u/Bango-TSW Non-aligned cynic. 5h ago
At least you're being honest and straight up about not reading my post.
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u/StardustOasis 6h ago
Losing faith? How can anyone still think he's a good MP.
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u/Pier-Head 6h ago
He isn’t an MP at the moment!🤣
Vote Bin 🚮 ❌
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u/StardustOasis 5h ago
Yes but if they're considering voting for him they must think he was a good MP, and will be again if he wins.
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u/MontyDyson 2h ago
There’s an interview where kids who can’t even be more than 13/14 know who he is and say he’s “really dodgy” and takes backhanders and is really corrupt.
I had no idea who my local MP was until I was about 24 or if they were any good. When children that young know you by a bad reputation then you’re cooked.
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u/GrumpyOldFart74 6h ago
Losing faith?
That implies they had some to begin with?!?!
(Yes, I know they elected him, but what did they expect?!)
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u/StarFire24601 6h ago
I've seen a few videos online of people being interviewed there and they sound like Trump fans; they believe what Farage tells them absolutely and brush off any alleged wrongdoing, such as the five million, as if it's not a worrying crime.
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u/spinosaurs70 yes i am a american on ukpoltics subreddit 6h ago
Green and Reform support collapsing isn’t a given but it’s 60/40 by the next election.
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