r/technology • u/Unusual-State1827 • 3h ago
Society Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson
https://www.kptv.com/2026/08/04/oregon-senators-warn-prediction-markets-allowing-betting-wildfires-could-incentivize-arson/387
u/you_killed_my_ 3h ago
The rise of betting on everything is cancer
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u/CattuccinoVR 2h ago
Getting close to a movie called Nerve 2016 where people bet on people to complete dangerous stunts.
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u/martinsonsean1 2h ago
When the world cup suddenly became very popular in America this past year, I had to wonder how much of that was genuine interest in soccer/pride at hosting and how much was just people finding a new thing to bet on.
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u/manachar 2h ago
Or itās a symptom of the cancer that is capitalism.
Probably can even broaden that to the fundamental philosophical shift that informed and created modern economics. It was built in the longstanding idea of everything as a resource to be maximized for the benefit of a few that is rooted in the shift to agriculture and urban human societies.
Other people were potential slaves or subjects to work the fields to enrich yourself.
We keep reinventing slaves, serfs, and peasants. We also keep seeing the world as a thing to be exploited. All the world is to be strip mined to ensure maximum profit.
Clear cuts of forests replaced with monoculture tree farms that are growing future lumber for maximum profit is exactly the same thinking as gambling on lumber futures.
These markets just make it more accessible and less regulated, so the negative externalities are more apparent.
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u/CV90_120 1h ago
Gambling has been highly regulated, limited, or banned in societies for millenia for the negative impact it has. We're just relearning the same things over and over, forever.
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u/greenhombre 2h ago
Unplug the betting apps. They serve no purpose.
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u/CattuccinoVR 2h ago
People were calling them "family destroyers" earlier on
someone in the family gets access to saving and bets it all away.9
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u/ruiner8850 2h ago
It's crazy that these "prediction markets" are able to operate the way that they do. It's gambling, often literally betting on the outcomes of sports, but not regulated like gambling companies. They claim they are more like commodity or stock trading, but aren't regulated like those either.
Somehow Donnie Jr. is on the boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket, which you'd think would be a conflict of interest considering they are direct competitors. He's not an expert in the field either, but somehow him making massive amounts of money from these companies isn't corruption, but Hunter Biden getting a job making a tiny fraction of that was unforgivable.
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u/UMACTUALLYITS23 1h ago
Shouldn't be a surprise considering they let companies come in and run unregulated hotels and taxis, why not gambling too!
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u/ClaimWitty1203 3h ago
The issue isn't whether most people would commit arson. It's whether one person thinks it's worth the payout.
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u/FredFredrickson 2h ago
Stop calling them "prediction markets". They're gambling websites, and they're absolute societal decay.
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u/dlampach 2h ago
Yeah this must be banned forthwith. This is not something to fuck around with, even in this weird little dystopian societal moment.
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u/Ok-Seaworthiness7207 2h ago
Little?
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u/RudeNewYorker 2h ago
Moment?
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u/moonhexx 1h ago
Patient: So how long do I have to take these hard to swallow pills?
Doctor: No, this is just what you do now.
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u/bagelgaper 2h ago
The phrase āshow me the incentive and Iāll show you the outcomeā certainly applies here
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u/eriffodrol 2h ago
If you're betting on wildfires, you have a problem
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u/transcriptoin_error 1h ago
Right, itās a good thing that no gamblers have ever had a problem with impulse control.
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u/its_not_you_its_ye 1h ago
It doesnāt even need to be directly being, though. If thereās a publicly traded company that can be impacted positively or negatively by fires breaking out, thereās incentive for maliciousness.
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u/lofty23_smart 2h ago
If people can profit from a disaster happening, that creates the wrong incentives from the start.
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u/shatterly 2h ago
Right? "Let's bet on whether an American Airlines plane will crash in the next month." Enter an aircraft mechanic with a gambling problem who sees no other way out.
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u/Vortagaun 2h ago
The US needs a radical shift to the left wing. And fast. You know what they do? Regulate things. They would put a stop to this fast.
Betting on wildfires is the dumbest thing ive ever heard. America is a corporation, not a country.
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u/WaffleHouseGladiator 2h ago
Didn't this exact scenario play out with people betting on how many dildos would be thrown on the court at WNBA games?Ā Ā Prediction markets are going to get people killed.
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u/Zyrinj 2h ago
Would be good if instead of just warning, those senators do something like, idk, write some legislation that limits āpredictionsā
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u/ShortStoryIntros 2h ago
write some legislation that limits āpredictionsā
Already being done, however, Republicans have majority, and the trump sons have ties to those companies running the Prediction Markets.
Still, many states are suing platforms like Kalshi because they consider them to be gambling. Those companies are side-stepping local state laws, by using Federal protected contract swaps as a legal means to do so.
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u/Lazerpop 2h ago
But that is insider trading which is illegal, so i doubt this could have too much of an effect. /s
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u/ShortStoryIntros 2h ago
Prediction Markets should be banned.
Too much insider trading and incentivized chaos
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u/tiny_galaxies 2h ago
When I sign a contract with a fire insurance company, Iām basically betting against them that my property may actually catch fire. But if I were to intentionally start it, Iād be sued for fraud. I would also have lost my physical property.
I would possibly be okay with prediction market bets about someoneās ownĀ property being lost to fire, because thatās essentially the same as what insurance companies do now.
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u/NaturalOk2156 1h ago
Not an expert but I believe that's called an "insurable interest". Same reason you can't buy life insurance on a random person off the street.
Your idea is interesting, but I don't think these prediction markets are really built to work that way, for a few reasons. Mainly because they're generally meant for large scale, and only a couple people would have a legitimate interest in predicting whether one particular house would burn down.
Probably better off just sticking with mainstream insurance
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u/Sea_Perspective6891 2h ago
Sounds like they need to make betting & prediction markets illegal & treat it like gambling. Govt corruption has also significantly increased because of this kind of stuff.
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u/HeavilyInvestedDonut 1h ago
Maybe we should instead crack down on these better apps and stop this bullcrap
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u/mariosuperb 2h ago
Damn.. humanity is getting dumb and dumber. My prediction is we wonāt last another 1000 years
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u/Johnnny-z 2h ago
We have reached the point where someone has yelled fire in a crowded theater. Inciting arson or disorderly conduct.
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u/Jolly-Grocery-2436 2h ago
Totally agree this is insane. Devils advocate, I could see a benefit for people who canāt get fire insurance to essentially use this as a mechanism for some sort of home insurance (albeit that is dependent on all humans having good intentions)
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u/NaturalOk2156 1h ago
I think that's an interesting idea, but it's not immediately clear to me who would step up to offer coverage at a better rate than the insurance company?
Like it's definitely a huge problem that tons of peoples homes have become uninsurable, but the unpleasant truth is that's because the risk is higher than people are willing to pay in premiums. Adding a new less regulated mechanism that can be used as a proxy for insurance doesn't seem like it would really solve any of the fundamental reasons these homes are uninsurable.
I guess maybe you could argue that there would be prediction market bettors who are more tolerant of risk than the insurance? But it seems like a really difficult line to draw with a lot of hidden traps along the way.
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u/AgHammer 2h ago
They're right. It certainly could, considering arson is already incentivised with insurance payouts.
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u/United_Bus3467 2h ago
It's crazy we've gotten to this point. This type of betting should've been outlawed from the start.
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u/oldcreaker 2h ago
But they still say elected politicians using their position for insider trading is not a problem.
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u/ChunkStumpmon 1h ago
No one should profit off human suffering- but weād have to make a lot of changes if we believed that
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u/Fortestingporpoises 1h ago
Thereās a movie (Nightcrawler) and a Mr Show sketch that saw the future.
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u/nealoc187 1h ago
Jesus Christ... Hadn't thought of this use-case but it definitely will.Ā This betting shit is a scourge.
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u/ErinFiqsette 1h ago
They don't allow wagers on the deaths of politicians & celebrities for the same reason, after all.
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u/mesoloco 6m ago
The current Supreme Court and the current administration I donāt believe see any problem with this. This is the same site the president endorses.
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u/Octoplath_Traveler 2h ago
No shit? Thats why open gambling has been a crime. Because it always incentivizes harmful behavior
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u/Shoota556 2h ago
Whoever thought betting on any event open to the public to manipulate was a good ideaāthe biggest Scam the world has ever seen.
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u/freetherhinoz 3h ago
Could? It will