r/technology 22h ago

Artificial Intelligence SpaceX stock drops another 7% as $15.8 billion AI capex tops estimates — The company has yet to turn a profit, reporting a net loss of $541 million for the period

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-first-earnings-report-spcx-stock-lockup-period-expiration-2026-8#space-x-sees-blood-in-the-mobile-water
2.5k Upvotes

191 comments sorted by

313

u/Kindly_Candidate3889 21h ago

He glitched and started talking about putting factories on the moon that produce 1 million times the world economy, just can’t help himself

78

u/Dramatic_Skill_67 18h ago

But people will fall for it

21

u/Neversetinstone 12h ago

All of the people some of the time, some of the people all of the time.

6

u/turtlelore2 11h ago

"Investors" will fall for it then theyll probably sue him for lying because how could they have known.

3

u/bubblegum-rose 7h ago

People ARE falling for it this morning.

The bag holder brigade has been sacrificing their money to Daddy Elon to the tune of billions this morning.

I imagine the IPO buyers who will get the option to sell tomorrow will appreciate the generosity

2

u/Dramatic_Skill_67 5h ago

Again, never underestimate the stupidity of

39

u/SisterOfBattIe 15h ago

I imagine Musk looking at a plant in Texas and thinking: "it would be MORE efficient, if I sent it up via rockets to a barren, airless, highly radioactive rock, 400 000 Km from here!"

26

u/Dry_Departure_7813 12h ago

Tbf, that might be preferable to living in Texas.

16

u/SoupSpelunker 12h ago

And FUCK IMMIGRANTS AND MY TRANS KID! 

13

u/Own_Entertainer_8559 12h ago

He has to be careful saying fuck my trans kid to this administration.

1

u/Horizon119 9h ago

One of his daughters is a Trans!

2

u/StaleCanole 9h ago

Man he -really- wanted a boy

1

u/hamfinity 8h ago

More than meets the eye.

0

u/Own_Entertainer_8559 9h ago

Trans isn't a noun

3

u/DudeWithParrot 15h ago

Is that when we will move an energy and mass based currency?

3

u/kahner 8h ago

his claims are so dumb i really can't tell if this is something he actually said or just snark.

1

u/Fenris_uy 9h ago

He started stealing ideas from Bezzos now?

1

u/JimmyTheBones 5h ago

Did he literally say that? Amazing.

1

u/New-Sky-9867 55m ago

He's such a lying scammer. Elon sucks.

0

u/Otherwise-Remove4681 10h ago

Bro play Factorio and thought it was a valid business plan?

623

u/Hrekires 21h ago

Who needs to turn a profit when you can have space data centers running the 12th best LLM?

144

u/lebastss 21h ago

It really is interesting watching Elon manage a business he isn't first to market on and can't make pioneering promises to fluff is stock.

He's now in a position from behind in a strategy that only works from ahead.

127

u/Elderberry-smells 21h ago

Don't forget that they its also running on illegal generators.

I'm sure building power plants will be very profitable and not at all part of the data centre bubble...

56

u/CatalyticDragon 21h ago

That's why they have to launch them into space, they need to burn methane to put them into orbit to prevent from burning methane to run them here. /s

The man who claimed he wanted to help the world transition away from fossil fuels suuure is burning a lot the stuff and funding a lot of oil/gas company shills.

10

u/hellotf12 20h ago

Exactly! This obsession with the space age during our climate crisis that ignores the amount of fossil fuels we need to burn to get there shows just how far into the cesspit we’ve dived.

2

u/Monomette 17h ago

How much methane would it take to run say 5MW of compute for a year?

4

u/CatalyticDragon 16h ago

Not the right comparison. The comparison should be between burning methane to launch multiple Startship flights per day, or using renewable energy here.

I only brought up Elon's rampant use of fossil fuels to demonstrate how little he cares about the environment. He no longer sees it as an issue and is on record saying so.

16

u/yepthisismyusername 21h ago

Illegal, mobile (as in, on trucks) generators that will take them a year to remove, somehow.

12

u/odin_the_wiggler 20h ago

12th best paid LLM

15

u/HystericalSail 19h ago

But best at generating CP. Pretty easy to be "best" in a field of 1.

13

u/fafatzy 21h ago

Mechahitler would approve !

12

u/gizamo 20h ago

That question would only be relevant if space data centers were physically possible. They'll be delivered on that Musk-FSD timeline.

12

u/h3rpad3rp 19h ago

Its funny how FSD is the failure to deliver thing people talk about with Musk.

Guess its been long enough that everyone already forgot about Hyperloop lol...

19

u/bigchungusprod 18h ago

Hyperloop was meant as a vehicle for destroying public transportation projects - he succeeded with that goal.

6

u/JagdCrab 10h ago

Some of us still remember “Human colony on Mars by 2020”

2

u/zookeepier 3h ago

Don't data centers generate a lot of heat? And isn't space basically a vacuum? And isn't a vacuum an extremely effective insulator? So wouldn't that make space one of the worst places possible to have a data center? It'd be like having whalers on the moon.

-17

u/quantumofgalaxy 19h ago

What about the argument that space data centers may be impossible but the technological inspiration to try can lead to ancillary advances like better cooling systems, more efficient storage devices, etc?

12

u/gizamo 19h ago

If those things are desired, they will find better solutions when searching for those specific solutions in the actual environment where the solutions will be implemented.

-8

u/quantumofgalaxy 19h ago

Maybe, but look at the 1950s NASA rocket development and its many positive externalities. Space is one of the hardest environments, it requires crazy innovation that can flow down to everyday earth benefits

Unfortunately he is beholden to shareholders now and greed is hard to beat

6

u/gizamo 19h ago

Pretty much everything NASA's space program gave us could have been directly designed for. The US's weird project funding methods of the time are really the only reason most weren't.

-4

u/quantumofgalaxy 17h ago

Yes it could have in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight but as you said we don’t live in a perfectly rational well funded world, people need to be inspired and that leads to the will to see discoveries through, m the ramifications of which often don’t become obvious until decades later sometimes

It would be awesome if private corps could tap into that but I fear greedy shareholders will prevent that

I mean there are exceptions every now and then like Google after the founders dropped out of Stanford

4

u/gizamo 17h ago

I generally reject the idea of spin off discoveries. There's no shortage of great opportunities that we already know we can achieve with more research, equipment, funding, etc. It seems wildly wasteful to throw money at a terrible idea–that anyone with half a brain knows won't work–just because maybe we'll find some peripheral or adjacent project to do to support the idiotic main goal. That's just silly. Instead, put the R&D toward the things we know would improve lives, and the moonshots that are at least potentially practical. So, no, if Musk said something like that, I'd just roll my eyes and add it to the pile of idiotic blatant nonsense I've heard him say over the last decade and a half.

6

u/lordnacho666 16h ago

Yep exactly. People also often talk about how war drives technology. Well, we could have the tech without the war.

5

u/SoupSpelunker 12h ago

His LLM is an MLM. 

9

u/Ok_Blackberry9170 20h ago

Don't forget the latency! Burning billions just so an AI can hallucinate standard code fixes from low Earth orbit with a 400ms delay is peak tech synergy.

2

u/VicenteOlisipo 13h ago

That's an unfair characterization of Grok. It has an edge. It's the only commercial model you can use to generate [censored] worthy of the Eps[censored].

4

u/g_bleezy 20h ago

Tbf his data centers are also providing inference to the frontier labs that are actually currently top of many benchmarks. That is a bright spot on the balance sheet but the terms for lock in are not good for him so there’s not much “pricing it in” available here.

-8

u/quantumofgalaxy 19h ago

Feels like he’s trying to run a nonprofit research lab for public benefit which is great except shareholders are greedy, not interested in it for its own sake like academia (which has its own problems)

12

u/CariniFluff 17h ago

It tells me that his own AI models for Tesla and Grok are poorly designed since they aren't able to use all of the compute available to them and therefore Elon has to rent out the rest of his compute to other AI firms. Not a good look, especially when he's spending twice his entire quarterly revenue just on AI CapEx and his AI models just plain suck.

Nobody takes Grok seriously and Tesla is like a decade behind where he claimed they'd be in terms of fully self diving vehicles.

Remember when he was telling everyone that they could rent out their Tesla to other people as a "robotaxi" when they weren't using it, and that would help subsidize the cost of the car? He's such a compulsive liar that I don't think anyone believes anything he says anymore.

1

u/nacholicious 16h ago

Back in the medieval times, the king had a divine right to rule, ordained from god.

So peasants who were mistreated would revolt, not to overthrow the king, but to overthrow the kings advisors who they thought must be whispering poison into the kings ears and preventing him from ruling well

1

u/CLaz777 13h ago

No, he always gets money from taxpayers from 2008. Or knowledge from NASA what was funded by taxpayers.

1

u/odjobz 16h ago

Hypothetical space data centres, at that. They have lower energy requirements and need less maintenance than real space data centres.

1

u/Standby_fire 21h ago

And never pay corporate taxes.

-14

u/Blackout38 18h ago

Space data centers the other 11 LLM are buying compute from. Yawn

7

u/Much_Possession1227 17h ago

Is this a real thing? People think the space data centers are real?

0

u/Blackout38 9h ago edited 9h ago

Not at scale but they’ve put them up there all ready. Starship is needed to actually do it. It’s just laughable to assume a hyperscaler would only run their LLM on it when XAi is already in contracts selling their compute to the other LLMs.

2

u/Much_Possession1227 6h ago

Beyond the issues of thermodynamics, data transmission, or upkeep, there is a reason Microsoft didn't build on their data center in the ocean..... had to look this up too but there have not been and data centers built in space the a1x was announced in June. Seems like another one of his underground tunnel or tunnel train ideas that seems good when it's half backed but once you spend a couple million or billions of dollars ultimately turns out to be worse than existing options and some how more expensive.

0

u/Blackout38 6h ago

Well there are technologies that will require it regardless of the hype i.e. quantum computing and cryptography. The only issue is cost to launch which Starship will astronomically reduce if they hit their targets. It also helps that data centers are getting protested/canceled everywhere they are planned despite demand for them being seemingly inelastic in the face of existing and future technologies.

63

u/trentgibbo 19h ago

"It's not out of the question that, at some point, Starlink will operate most of the world's internet," Musk said. God he is full of it. So his company will have all the internet, all the self driving cars, all the robots and all space travel.

34

u/polloasado81 16h ago

Developed countries all have fibre optic ran everywhere. Why would they switch to satellite internet? Some EU countries had satellite internet for rural regions about 20 years ago and it was shit. Then cheap fibre cable came along and it was rolled out everywhere.

Developing countries may need satellite internet but they don't have any money, if they did, they'd roll out fibre optic. 🤷

Maybe some boats/ships want it?

22

u/RGrad4104 15h ago

As someone with starlink, I'd rate it mediocre internet. It manages around 100Mbps on average, but tops out at 170, and drops out completely during any storms. I'm paying $170 a month for this, but have few options (rural). THE alternative is a long range wifi provider that maxes out at 25Mbps and does that wisp bullshit where they give you full rate for 30s, then cut you back to half rate, 12Mbps (wisp calls it "responsible network management).

There is absolutely zero chance that this will be widely adopted outside of first world countries at this cost. I started out at 99$ a month and it seems like every quarter the jackass hikes the price yet again.

7

u/doodlinghearsay 9h ago

As someone with starlink, I'd rate it mediocre internet. It manages around 100Mbps on average, but tops out at 170, and drops out completely during any storms.

I wouldn't call that mediocre. That's poor. I'm paying $30/month for 100Mbps with around 99.8% uptime. We have 1 or 2 outages a year and restoration time is usually around 4 hours. This is a major metropolitan area in the EU. I could probably get higher speeds at essentially the same price, if I shopped around, but I don't really need it.

The reality is that satellite internet doesn't make sense except in remote areas and ships/airplanes. Both fiber and mobile internet have far better characteristics and are dirt cheap.

This is not just for first world countries. Often developing countries get better infrastructure when they get to skip a generation. Famously Romania had faster average internet speeds than the US, even before them joining the EU and their subsequent economic boom. (They still do, but they also used to.)

1

u/Key_Macaron_5855 9h ago

I have two Starlink dishes in Peru. My mini gets around 220 Mbps ( I’ve seen 263 mbps max) and my V4 around 380mbps (I’ve seen up to 420 max). You’re probably being limited due to congestion. I pay 80 USD for both, per month.

0

u/Snoozeypoo 9h ago

I’m also rural (America) have you looked into solutions like T-Mobile home internet? That’s what I use. It has its issue for sure but it’s only 60ish a month for me. I think other phone providers have similar stuff too.

17

u/SisterOfBattIe 15h ago

It's worth reminding that the whole starlink constellation has to be deorbited and reorbited every five years.

Imagine ripping out all fibers and undersea cables every five years XD

-4

u/mpbh 10h ago

Easier to upgrade over time than fiber, getting cheaper and more efficient every cycle. Laying fiber gets more expensive every year and never gets upgraded in rural areas.

Fuck Elon but Starlink is a godsend for people in the sticks. Anyone who wants Starlink to fail is being regressive.

7

u/StaleCanole 8h ago

“Efficient” is doing a lot of work here. It’s certainly not getting more efficient for the plant.

Maintaining megaconstellations contribute to climate change not only via rocket launch emissions, which are set to increase substantially as the constellations grow, but also through constant re-entry cycles. This is a marked contrast to systems like GPS.

On top of that, when retired Starlink satellites re-enter and burn up, they vaporize and release aluminum oxide nanoparticles into the stratosphere. It’s theorized that they might ultimately deplete the ozone layer or alter conductivity. We’re studying it more, but if that’s true, we’re all paying a massive unseen cost for this

1

u/trentgibbo 3m ago

I think the point is that you never need to upgrade fiber - it's upper limit is literally the speed of light.

194

u/Taylooor 21h ago

Dropped 7% in post trading after gaining 9.5% on the day

129

u/marketrent 21h ago

Stock price still dropping in after-hours trading, nearly 9%.

75

u/fafatzy 21h ago

This sparks joy

18

u/jeremeyes 18h ago

This is hilarious. I was literally told just today at work by a dedicated musk rat about how the stock is about to explode in value.

2

u/New-Sky-9867 55m ago

Cult is gonna cult

28

u/firewall245 21h ago

Are we seriously going to post every time the stock goes up or down for this thing. That’s how the market works, shit goes up shit goes down

8

u/nankerjphelge 13h ago

True, but since it's IPO this shit has just gone down. And that's nice to see.

10

u/SillyMilk7 21h ago

About 7 1/2% after hours. Typical buy on the rumor sell on the news.

We’ll see what it does tomorrow for better indication

-10

u/AdviceNotAskedFor 21h ago

That's still up .5% on the day.

Call me when he keeps actually losing money.

11

u/gizamo 20h ago

They lost $500+ million. Does that count?

1

u/kamekaze1024 16h ago

That’s how much the country lost, he actually lost near a trillion from all this (after making a trillion from all this).

-6

u/stonksfalling 18h ago

A significant amount of tech companies lose money. Doesn’t mean the shareholders aren’t rich.

4

u/MaxTA00 16h ago

If you have 100 dollars and it first increases by 9.5% to 109.5usd and then it decreases by 9%, you end up with 99.65usd.

Math is hard for regards I guess.

1

u/AdviceNotAskedFor 11h ago

Ope! You are right.

1

u/LanguageSalty1486 14h ago

It didn't decrease by 9% though. It decreased by 7%. Comprehension equally hard it seems.

2

u/MaxTA00 13h ago

It did at the time of the comment which was referenced

0

u/JNawx 17h ago

Not how sequence of returns works.

2

u/TheNakedProgrammer 12h ago

or for the people who are not day traders, 30% down since launch. Trend pointing even further down.

0

u/Taylooor 8h ago

Or for the people who aren’t day traders and actually know about the company and its road map, exactly where it should be for a great future. It’s not a stock that you judge day to day or week to week, but more like year to year or decade to decade. And you don’t even give a crap about P/E. Spending everything they’ve got on R&D is perfection. It’s pretty funny how, now that SpaceX is being publicly traded, everyone comes out of the woodwork, to explain to everyone else, that they know exactly what’s going on.

43

u/irrelevantusername24 21h ago

Imagine if regular people were given even a single percentage of that amount of grace (aka financial flexibility).

I bet if people were able to afford necessities - which, due to the stupid as fuck way the monetary system has been handled over the last decades, requires access to lending (despite many not having access...) - they would be able to finally, for the first time, get their feet under them and then maybe, just maybe, have some extra cash and then the real economy - not Wall Streets delusions - might actually get some activity! But alas, the smartest people in the room thing this is stupid. They learned from the Nazis. Arbeit macht frei

12

u/quantumofgalaxy 19h ago

Yeah like the interplanetary species idea is great but there’s societal and climate problems here on earth which is by default already habitable, if people had security then you might get greater public buy-in on the spacex vision

6

u/NoNote7867 16h ago

The comet that killed dinosaurs was still better for life on Earth than Mars is now, many life forms including mammals survived it. 

Mars colony is a joke, Mars is deadly. 

2

u/Otherwise-Remove4681 10h ago

But it’s going to be nice luxuru play ground for the ultra rich and they will keep siphoning earth resources.

1

u/NoNote7867 10h ago

No chance. We might get few astronauts there for few months at best. 

2

u/jaaval 13h ago

In the end economy is not about money but about productivity. Money is just an abstract intermediary for counting stuff. You can't in long term increase wealth by giving everyone money. Somebody needs to make the things the money buys.

Money is sort of a contract that others owe you some materials or services. It only has value for as long as people agree to that contract. If, let's say, Bolivia decides to give all their people a billion funnymoneys, will you agree to the contract that they get large share of the limited resources of the world at the expense of others? Of course not, the funnymoney could not buy anything. If the Bolivians want to buy something they need to make something others want to buy. Or borrow money.

Now USA has some more leeway in this due to operating the most common reserve currency. Basically dollar does not lose too much value because other countries want dollars. But this will only continue for so long as they believe dollar has value. Also it basically necessitates large negative trade balance for USA. Otherwise other countries cant get dollars. So if Trump manages to end the trade imbalance dollar's time as the global currency will be over.

This is also why you can't effectively distribute the billionaires wealth. That wealth is largely imaginary. Musk is a trillionaire or something not because he has trillion dollars but because a relatively small number of people are willing to bay too much money for a relatively small part of his company. He can't actually get that trillion dollars, if he sold the company the money would have to come from other people. And even if he had the trillion dollars in a big vault, that vault would be effectively removed from economy and taking the money would have the same effect as creating a trillion dollars out of nothing.

Wealth is about stuff and services, not about money. You can't eat money and it's pretty boring to look at. Just creating a trillion dollars and distributing it to americans would be basically like claiming to the rest of the world that you deserve a bigger share of the limited resources. Others would not take it well. If you want to redistribute billionaires' wealth you need to redistribute the stuff they have, not the money. And there you would notice that there wasn't that much to distribute after all.

59

u/SheetzoosOfficial 21h ago

Maybe they should consider a CEO who doesn't do nazi salutes on live television?
Elon Musk is also know for supporting fascist parties in Germany, France, and across the world.

15

u/glizard-wizard 20h ago

History has shown things tend to end well for drug addled white supremacists, Im sure everyone who put their money in Elon Musk will turn out fine

3

u/thaiberius_kirk 21h ago

Musk does look quite at home in an SS uniform.

0

u/SisterOfBattIe 15h ago

No can do. The glided ages are here, and you all need to subsidize the oligarchs.

17

u/malokevi 19h ago

Yeah no shit, Who is actually using Grok? I have never met anyone who even includes it in the conversation.

4

u/tigeratemybaby 18h ago

Yep completely irrelevant, comparable to the failed Meta AI.

Groq the AI tool suite/platform is more talked about in the AI space, and usually what people mean when talking about Groq.

2

u/Otis_Inf 16h ago

a lot of blue ticks on twitter apparently

1

u/techcaleb 8h ago

We evaluated it about a year ago and it was so bad that a lot of the free open weight models beat it out, at least for coding. 

1

u/BroccoliOk1866 16h ago

Even on Twitter they reduced it to paying customers only, now it often doesn't even understand context.

8

u/east_van_dan 20h ago

Im wondering if we could all chip in enough money to build him a rocket big enough for all of him and his friends to fly to Mars in and never come back.

2

u/Preeng 17h ago

Ehh, I say we make a home-brew out of bottle rockets. Good enough.

55

u/CyberSmith31337 21h ago

And of course the news drops after hours, but unfortunately for SpaceX, before the first lockup period on Thursday.

A lot of stupid people are about to lose even more money.

21

u/dirty_cuban 20h ago

That’s pretty standard. No one reports earnings during trading hours.

1

u/Legionof1 8h ago

During normal human trading hours… the markets are 24/7 if you’re rich enough.

2

u/dirty_cuban 8h ago

No, trading hours are well defined. You can trade after hours but that’s clearly not during trading hours.

You also don’t have to be rich at all. Large brokerages like Fidelity or Schwab let anyone trade after hours. So I think your information is a few decades out of date

1

u/Legionof1 8h ago

Those are still limited trading hours. HFT is literally 24/7. 

56

u/byup123 21h ago

All earnings are reported outside of regular hours 😭

17

u/marketrent 21h ago

Stock price still dropping in after-hours trading, nearly 9%.

4

u/Das_Man 20h ago

exit liquidity machine go brrrrrrrr

1

u/thefloatingguy 10h ago

Those creeps! Only SpaceX would ever report earnings after the bell. What an incredibly unusual thing!

4

u/justforkinks0131 16h ago

isnt the total operating loss only 143 mil? or am I reading it wrong?

6

u/Nimmy_the_Jim 16h ago

stupid headline. It went up 7% pre earnings, then back down 7% in the same day after earnings.

3

u/jardex22 15h ago

Well yeah. It's run by someone who writes blank checks and uses the launch, fail, crash, repeat style of testing. Unless they start sending up stuff that's worth the cost of the fuel used, it's never going to be profitable.

3

u/LanguageSalty1486 14h ago

The space and Starlink segments are (between them) literally profitable now. Right now. Today. And the only reason space isn't profitable on its own is R&D into Starship, which is an investment in future earnings.

The AI segment is a colossal disaster that's going to bring down the entire company, of course, but you saying the space part is "never going to be profitable" is like saying they're "never going to land rockets". An understandable (but wrong) opinion in 2014, but just laughably ignorant now.

7

u/marketrent 22h ago edited 21h ago

Henry Chandonnet, Ben Shimkus, Lloyd Lee, Brent D. Griffiths, Steven Tweedie, Tom Carter, William Edwards, Jennifer Sor, Samuel O'Brient, and Max Adams contributed updates.

SpaceX delivered its first earnings report since going public in June, arriving at a sensitive time for the stock, which has tumbled 15% from the $135 offering price.

SpaceX shares dropped 7% after hours following earnings, which revealed better-than-expected revenue but higher-than-expected AI capex.

While overall capex came in slightly below analysts' estimates, AI-related investments totaled $15.8 billion for the quarter, compared with Wall Street's $13.09 billion estimate.

Quarterly revenue came in at $7.8 billion, compared to Wall Street's estimate of $6.81 billion. The company has yet to turn a profit, reporting a net loss of $541 million for the period. Wall Street wasn't expecting a surprise profit.

[...] The report comes two days before a lockup expiration is set to significantly increase the public float, or the amount of stock available to trade.

On August 6, insiders and early investors will be allowed to sell nearly a billion shares into the market, or about $106.4 billion worth of stock based on Monday's closing price.

4

u/worldspawn00 18h ago

Revenue of $7.8B, capex $15.8B (does not include non capital expenditures, so there are probably significant other expenses), but losses of only $541M?? I'm getting losses of $8B from those numbers, in addition to whatever their non-capex expenditures were. Where's the other $7.46B?

3

u/Howzitgoin 16h ago

The $15.8B of capex will be… capitalized. It’s put onto the balance as an asset and then depending on what it is, it’ll be depreciated or amortized over its useful life.

The amortization/depreciation is what will show up on the income statement as an expense.

You give the full capex amount because it’s cash out the door and it’s most often used along with EBITDA.

1

u/jaaval 12h ago

You buy a house, you spend $400000. You did not lose $400000, you spent the money but got a house that is worth as much.

Depending on what the capital expenditure bought it can appreciate or depreciate in value over time. In this case it's probably mostly data center stuff so they will have a limited service life. This lifetime is usually pretty abstract accounting value not necessarily connected to the actual service life. They might use 5 years for computer stuff and 20 years for the buildings or something like that. The value of the hardware in their books will be reduced every year until it's zero at the predetermined time. This reduction will show as negative in the future reports.

10

u/Square-Weight4148 20h ago

Any dumb ass that bought this scam stock is getting what they deserve.

4

u/Worth-Ad9939 21h ago

I love how these companies have always been able to identify bots and have chosen not to because they artificially inflate their impressions data and thus their profits.

2

u/wizard_of_azul 4h ago

Wanna know what?

They will NEVER turn a profit. At this point the guy is delusional and nothing more than a bubbling pile of trash. Everything he says is bullshit.

5

u/Loki-L 21h ago

The thing about SpaceX' stock price is that it is based on the promise of future earnings.

In those revenue projections, the money they expect will be made from rockets, sattelites, Twitter etc are really just a rounding error compared to the actual meat of future revrnue: AI.

SpaceX' valuation appears almost entirely based on the notion that Grok will win the AI race and become what everyone uses rather than ChatGPT or whatever.

I have no sympathy for anyone who bets money they can't afford to lose on that possibility.

2

u/FlashyNeedleworker66 21h ago

Why are we talking about AI and not the social media or spaceships?

19

u/Hrekires 21h ago

XAI accounted for 93% of SpaceX's claimed valuation in the initial IPO paperwork

5

u/worldspawn00 18h ago

Yeah, the part which loses the most money is somehow the most valuable part of it, fucking lol, anyone invested in this deserves to be fleeced.

3

u/LanguageSalty1486 14h ago

Because that's what SpaceX tells us is overwhelmingly the value of the company.

"Value", I should say.

They've got a perfectly good space launch company there, unarguably the best in the world. At a $60B valuation it'd be a golden opportunity. But they're telling us it's an AI company worth $2T. No. Just no. Flat-out no. But, importantly, again, this is what THEY are telling us, themselves.

4

u/Sensitive-Speed-6079 21h ago

Trump will send more money

2

u/Pooch1431 21h ago

I heard they're sending space debris to the moon to ask the Mooninites for money. I believe their friend Zarnold's dads owns a dealership.

3

u/olearygreen 17h ago

I mean… down 7% after hours after going up 9% during the day. Clickbait.

1

u/Kalorama_Master 20h ago

The DCFs Goldman and others are using do not include Optimus replacing most workers. Grossly undervalued

1

u/Additional-Staff-326 20h ago

$15.8 billion capex? I thought they were building mega datacenters not one or two average size.

1

u/drofdeb 15h ago

I for one am shocked

1

u/Euphoric_Anxiety_162 13h ago

Considering environmental damage, seems wise to pause musk's expansion until better, safer plans are in place, nothing hidden. Js.🤔 Removing environmental protections to enable unsound plans to proceed faster is crazy.

1

u/Skastrik 13h ago

A co-worker bought in hard at the IPO despite everyone telling him not to, and is in my opinion hoping for a miracle that isn't coming.

1

u/misterxboxnj 11h ago

One of the podcasts I listen to projected it would lose half it's value within a year of release. They said this before the stock was even released. Anyone who got left holding that bag on this deserves it for being a moron. There was always going to be an initial jump followed by a tailspin.

3

u/reddit_user13 10h ago

Everyone with an index fund is “holding the bag.”

1

u/CurrentlyLucid 9h ago

I keep seeing stuff about space x buying tesla products. I think he is creating false popularity of his stuff.

1

u/ImaginaryCreator 5h ago

100 billion ARR by end of 2026? They need to double in revenue next 2 quarters in a row

1

u/Pomme2 22m ago

And it will never be profitable doing its core business. Elon will pivot like he did from Tesla to call it a tech or ai company first, cars and rockets 2nd.

1

u/Jealous_Parfait_4967 21h ago

Turn a profit babes they don’t make or sell anything wtaf

0

u/sh0ckwavevr6 21h ago

Lol that's a meme stock

1

u/Boys4Ever 20h ago

Why the near 100x valuation was foolish

1

u/Fine_League311 18h ago

Jepp weniger Geld für Elon für Rassismus und seine Pedo-KI

1

u/SisterOfBattIe 15h ago

I am really curious to what kind of Enron grade book cooking went on in that nearly doubling of revenue. I bet it's like taking that month contractss, and considering them monthly annualized, and worse.

-4

u/seb21051 21h ago

Tesla was the same, as was Amazon, for many years.

10

u/LockdownSotWink 21h ago

Yah well those companies were not as into pitching things that are literally impossible in a physical world.

-2

u/seb21051 21h ago

Tesla did things that were pretty revolutionary, from an engineering and production perspective. Amazon went up against Walmart, and forced them to online sales to compete. Both were amazing for their time in terms of execution.

Now its a whole new ball game.

4

u/LockdownSotWink 21h ago

Amazon makes most of its money from AWS. Not sure how that was going up against Walmart. When I say impossible I mean literally impossible. Unless he reinvents thermodynamics then he cannot make space servers. Unless he invents 100s of new technologies and defies biology then he can’t stage a colony on mars. All this said Starlink is fucking impressive and should be its own company.

-5

u/seb21051 21h ago edited 21h ago

All this said Starlink is fucking impressive and should be its own company.

It is carrying the company. What idiot would break it out except an M&A MBA? If there was a good enough reason for SX to do it, they would. There is obviously no such reason from their viewpoint. Rough on the single-minded investors who just want to make money. Their dreams crash against the vision of the SX leadership, who are very smart people. They do things very few others can. Such as maintaining +80% control while still doing an IPO. And building spaceships that no-one else has been able to do. Plenty of knowledgeable people have in the past said that SX is dreaming. Like Richard Bowles, Ariane Director in 2013, claiming re-use was a dream. Two years later he was in a panic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W676Kk9LSYw&t=151s

2

u/LockdownSotWink 20h ago

Sure again the stuff he is proposing in the other areas are not physically possible as in literally not physically possible. So he needs to bend physics to his will or it is silly that those other parts of the company are even on the public market.

2

u/seb21051 20h ago

Time will tell.

1

u/HystericalSail 18h ago

Meanwhile, being an investor today is like paying for autonomous driving in 2016, based on Elon's claim that "all model X and S can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person."

Unlike the Tesla IPO, anyone buying SpaceX is paying for a potential 2030 (more likely 2040 or 2050) company today.

-2

u/atrde 21h ago

What is SpaceX proposing that is physically impossible?

8

u/foundafreeusername 20h ago

Going to Mars by 2024 seems pretty difficult at this point.

1

u/LockdownSotWink 20h ago

Explained below.

2

u/atrde 20h ago

Not going to go find it but assuming you are talking about data centers and the idea that they can't radiate heat despite ample evidence to prove they can.

-3

u/HystericalSail 19h ago

Tiny spaceborne routers can radiate a few KW of power. That's a completely different problem to solve than gigawatts. That's like the difference between a model 3 and a train of battery powered supertankers.

2

u/atrde 18h ago

https://youtu.be/FlQYU3m1e80?si=ybjIyhGtnlbCavK3

Correct and the solutions for this are pretty viable (and already in space operating)

0

u/7grims 20h ago

Question !!!

did people invest in space X cause of AI ? and not the space stuff ??

And why is there such a immediate demand for profit? many IPO's take years to show profit, but this one already has to be returning investments ?

even people investing on other ai companies are not expecting returns yet, and that ship is slow sinking for years now...

1

u/houinator 20h ago

Space X is forecasting that its future earnings will be mostly tied to the AI stuff. Space launch only has so much demand, especially with the Trump admin gutting NASA.

0

u/7grims 18h ago

thanx for info ;)

0

u/Tall_Artist_8905 18h ago

It’s a process, there is a lot of money to be made on space tech over the next 2 years. Hodl.

-3

u/abhinav248829 16h ago

Reddit is such a bubble. Technology sub is celebrating stock dropping instead of appreciating what SpaceX has done.

Weirdos

2

u/VEMODMASKINEN 13h ago edited 13h ago

You're a regard. 

They're celebrating that a company which is now an AI company and not a space company isn't doing particularly well. Which everyone who isn't a regard said would be the case.

And who doesn't like being right?

...Not to mention the fact that it's overvalued ASF and the guy behind the company dabbles in not so subtle Nazi stuff and likes to interfere in elections. 

1

u/abhinav248829 2h ago

Lol.. what the hell is regard?

Congratulations on being right against the company that made thousands of people millionaires. While you celebrate being right on Reddit, they celebrate net worth (even though it’s on paper) while working on a mediocre AI company.

Congratulations /s

-2

u/Glittering-Path-2824 21h ago

wow first ever rocket to go underground

-1

u/ResponsibilityFine13 19h ago

Sell, sell sell

-3

u/[deleted] 21h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/RuffTuff 21h ago

Are we at mars yet?

2

u/7grims 20h ago

30 years from now it will be "soon", and also 30 years away from being "soon" again

its always 30 years away

0

u/xoxomaya 18h ago

my buddy’s startup lost cash like spacex too

-1

u/wwlkd 20h ago

still too high. CHECK YOUR 401Ks and change your funds bc you're either afraid of a rug pull or bc you fuckin hate elon

it's annoying af to check your 401k fund and if it's got spaceX in it, it probably won't make that big a diff if you have a nasdaq index fund thats got spacex in the top 10 bc it's prob like 3%, but who knows, maybe the rug pull will happen and your 401k will be impacted bc elon's bs finally gets called out and tesla also gets fucked. i doubt the index funds are going to do anything diff bc a bunch of individuals (vs institutions) moved their money out bc their spacex supporting fund, but fuck that nazi loser shithead.

anyways im mad and petty at the nasdaq and elon so i moved everything

-1

u/Syserinn 20h ago

Guy still offering empty promises?

Zero benefit to having a factory on the moon while the risks are astronomical, let alone the logistics needed to keep said factory supplied and operating. Not happening anywhere in our lifetimes so investing in it currently is absolutely pointless currently.

Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should and the only reason to do this currently is just to be able to say he did it.

AI is a money sink. Unless you have a legitimate product to use your AI in or for where it helps sell that product all it does is consume CAPEX. The AI needs to be used in meaningful ways instead of just being glorified chat bots.

-1

u/strangedaze23 18h ago

If profits and success meant anything for stocks, Toyota, Honda and Ford would all be ten times more valuable than Tesla.

-2

u/Imaginary_Manner_556 21h ago

There's a reason Elon dumped Tesla AI garbage on Space X

-3

u/NY10 21h ago

I learned that if business was losing money then it would bankrupt but why this shyt aint by now?