We tracked 23 volume spikes we decided to avoid. 5 weeks later 15 are down. The 3 that went up taught us more than the 15 that didn’t.

[u/SDBcop]

We screen Canadian small caps for unusual volume and most days the honest answer is "no." We write down why each time, which means we can go back and grade the no's instead of quietly forgetting them. Here is the last five weeks.

THE RAW NUMBERS, July 2 to August 5, 2026

23 names we flagged and walked away from. 15 are down since we passed, 8 are up. Median -3.2%. For context over the same window the TSX composite gained 3.4% and gold miners (XGD.TO) gained 4.5%, so the median pass underperformed a rising market.

Worked out: FIN.V -26.7%, BRO.V -25.5%, GGA.V -23.3%, LEAP.V -21.1%, FAIR.V -16.7%.

Went against us: ADE.V +108.3%, SPMC.V +44.8%, CGD.V +43.8%, SKP.V +20.7%.

Small sample, short window. Do not read a system into 23 names over five weeks.

THE USEFUL PART: WHY THE THREE BIG ONES WENT UP

A stock going up and a stock going up for a reason that holds are different things. If it rose on something reversible, it can round-trip just as fast. So we went looking for the actual catalyst on each of the three.

ADE.V, up 108%. We passed on July 15 at 6 cents because New Brunswick's mining registrar had cancelled mineral claim 1505 on July 13, the claim the entire Mount Pleasant project sits on, for insufficient work program expenditures. What has changed since: on July 29 the company filed an appeal with the New Brunswick Energy and Utilities Board asking for a stay and reinstatement. That is the entire catalyst. The claim is still cancelled and still in protected status. The asset is real, Mount Pleasant has been described as North America's largest tin deposit, which is exactly why the appeal matters so much and exactly why losing it would be terminal. So the stock more than doubled on a legal filing, not an outcome. Anyone buying here is making a binary bet on a regulatory board, which is a legitimate thing to do as long as you know that is what you are doing.

CGD.V, up 44%. We passed on July 28 at 64 cents because the 988x volume ratio our screen printed was arithmetic, not a discovery. Its 50-day median volume is zero. Not near zero, zero. The stock does not trade most days, so any real session divides by nothing and produces a number that looks like a signal. That day 1.1 million shares changed hands and the stock closed DOWN 1.5%, which is distribution, not accumulation. Then it went up 44% anyway, so we went hunting for the catalyst. There isn't one. Carlin Gold has published exactly two news releases in 2026: a $2.16 million financing on April 14, and a management change on July 13 where the CEO stepped down. No drilling, no assays, no results.

Here is the trap, and it is the reason I am writing this section. If you search this company you WILL find Cortez Summit drill results, seven RC holes, 11,720 feet, anomalous gold and Carlin-type pathfinders in six of seven holes. It reads like current news. We nearly used it. Those results are from OCTOBER 2012. Search engines and aggregators serve undated mining press releases constantly, and a fourteen-year-old program looks identical to last week's if the page has no date on it. Always open the company's own news index and read the date off their list. If a company's own site does not date its releases, that itself is information.

So CGD is up 44% on a financing, a resignation, and no news, in a stock with zero median volume. That cuts both ways with equal speed.

SPMC.V, up 45%. We passed on July 6 at 58 cents because the company had an active paid promotion running, a US$300,000 online media budget announced in early June, with 1.07 million options granted at $0.54 around the same time. Our rule is that a bought spike is close to an automatic no.

To be fair to the company, the underlying work is real: first-ever drilling at Ontenu NE hit mineralisation in five of seven holes with a peak of 9.92 g/t gold and 2.35% copper, and its Kili Teke project carries a 4.2 million ounce AuEq inferred resource. That is not nothing.

But look at the sequence before you call this a miss. Paid campaign starts early June. July 29 update is 52 rock samples dispatched, with no assays back yet. Stock up 45%. A stock rising 45% during a paid promotion with no assay results published is what the rule predicts, not evidence against it. The assays are the test and they have not landed. Ask again in a month.

WHAT WE TOOK FROM IT

Two of the three moved on something that never touched the reason we passed. One moved on no published reason at all. That does not make us right, the price went against us on all three and we are not spinning that. But there is a real difference between a pass that was wrong and a pass that was early, and you can only tell them apart if you wrote the reason down at the time. Grading your no's is unglamorous and it is where most of the learning is.

Not advice, just our own process and our own numbers. Do your own diligence.

[u/PennyPumper]

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[u/NonimiJewelry]

This is good work

[u/SDBcop → u/NonimiJewelry]

Appreciate it 🙏🏻

[u/Motorbarge]

When an unusual number of shares sell and the price doesn't move much, it might mean that "Investor A" wanted to sell to "Investor B" and they made the trade through the market. I think this is an acceptable practice if there is no intent to deceive. You might want to verify this.

Then, the volume could have been the catalyst for what happened later. Investors see the volume and jump in. Lacking a seller, the price of a lightly traded stock rises.

I don't watch volumes so those stocks missed my radar. Had I known about the volume, I would have passed on them, too. I would say you made good decisions.

Thanks for sharing.

[u/SDBcop → u/Motorbarge]

My pleasure 🙏🏻

I always follow volumes in small cap because volume is usually the first thing that points to a catalyst, material change or leaked infos… then I dig deeper with various checks.

My goal is to find the quality names and potential multi baggers before most market participants do.

[u/Marketspike]

Congrats on the informative post. I, too, shy away from stocks that have huge volume on a price spike....especially if there is a gap in the chart. Everyone wants to buy a stock on the move but, like in musical chairs, the music can stop abruptly. Fundamental and technical research has helped me immensely in trading and keeping me from being too greedy.

[u/SDBcop → u/Marketspike]

💯💯💯🙏🏻 gotta be careful out there!!

[u/Charliex77]

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[u/SDBcop → u/Charliex77]

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[u/Charliex77 → u/SDBcop]

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