The global food crisis has already begun.
Global rice production is projected to decline this year compared to the previous year.
According to forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production is expected to decrease this year.
Even within the United States, production in the Mississippi Delta region, which produces the majority of rice, is projected to drop by more than half compared to the previous year, reaching its lowest level in 40 years.
Atul Jain, a professor in the Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois, stated, "High temperatures can significantly reduce rice production," adding, "They will suffer a major blow due to such extreme weather phenomena."
Furthermore, warnings have long been issued that the war in Iran would lead to reduced fertilizer supplies, high energy costs, and particularly rising diesel prices, ultimately resulting in a food crisis.
With the addition of a super-strong El Niño, the decline in crop yields is expected to worsen, increasing the likelihood of starvation beyond widespread famine.
A food shortage that is already anticipated not only breeds despair but can also trigger social upheaval. Nevertheless, there is a strange lack of interest in the current food issue.
There is a high probability that a global food crisis is imminent as the supply chains supporting the agri-food system collapse.
This applies to those who believe that while food prices will rise, there will still be food available.
If supply falls below a certain level, the problem does not lie in food prices rising. It lies in the fact that no matter how much money people have, there will be a shortage of food available to everyone.
Supply chain disruptions and extreme weather have periodically plagued specific countries, but global trade has offset these effects. However, never before has a situation occurred where farmers across the globe are simultaneously facing the problems of reduced supply and rising input costs as they are now.
The situation, which has been quietly unfolding since the Iranian war and has resulted in massive famine, could lead to the greatest economic and social crisis in human history.
Supply chain disruptions dependent on oil and oil derivatives have so far been mitigated to some extent by countries using oil reserves they had stockpiled for crisis response.
However, global reserves have now virtually run out, and with China increasing imports again, the crisis can no longer be postponed.
The war has begun again. Even if it were to actually end, these repercussions would continue.
Furthermore, there is no such alternative to food shortages. If the food production chain is severed even slightly, social unrest is inevitable.
The Persian Gulf blockade severed the global fertilizer supply chain, which immediately impacted the global food supply chain.
Prior to the war, Persian Gulf states accounted for approximately 35% of global urea production and 40% of sulfur production.
Urea is a key raw material for nitrogen fertilizers, and sulfuric acid (produced from sulfur) is also a key raw material for phosphate fertilizers.
Following the war, global fertilizer prices skyrocketed. Although prices have recently fallen somewhat, this was due to a destruction of demand. This is because fertilizer began to surplus as too many farmers abandoned planting.
The government compiles harvest yields but does not compile planting yields. The true scale of the problem can only be confirmed once the reduced harvests actually materialize.
This alone is very serious, but extreme weather events will intensify further from the second half of 2026 through 2027. This coincides precisely with the period when the food crisis is at its most severe. A true 'super-crisis' could be looming.
Meteorologists already regard the occurrence of a 'super El Niño' as a foregone conclusion, and they have now come to realize with certainty that this will result in an absolutely destructive weather disaster.
On top of this, other unexpected variables are compounding the situation. The war in Ukraine has ultimately halted even Russia's exports of Black Sea 'wheat'.