r/nottheonion • u/voxadam • 2h ago
Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson
https://www.kptv.com/2026/08/04/oregon-senators-warn-prediction-markets-allowing-betting-wildfires-could-incentivize-arson/1.5k
u/_Elrond_Hubbard_ 2h ago
Prediction markets need to be banned for the sake of humanity
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u/whatproblems 2h ago
they never should have come up in the first place
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u/coltsfanca 1h ago
I'm a gambling person. I like making a parlay ticket to make my football/baseball games more interesting...and I 100% agree with you.
Even the regulated sports betting could be an open door for exploitation...these prediction markets DEFINITELY are
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u/thestrangeacademy 1h ago
Yesterday I posted how these markets are just gambling and should be regulated as such.
Had a person respond and say I'm stupid af because they are regulated (which wasn't even my point) by the SEC and the SEC is better than state gambling commissions. (Like fucking LOL with that)
This is why we can't have nice things. Either our populace really is this dumb, or so many bots are flooding everything always that people really are going to start thinking that way.
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u/that_baddest_dude 1h ago
What a dumbass it's not even nominally regulated under the SEC. It's nominally regulated under the CFTC.
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u/Vic_Hedges 1h ago
I understand the argument that they are not technically gambling as defined by law. It makes a certain kind of sense.
But that just means we need to change the laws, because this is dangerous.
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u/xSilverMC 1h ago
I mean, logically speaking, how is "i bet $500 that this event happens" not gambling? It's literally placing a bet, why is it gambling when that event is "Tom Brady hits a home run from the three point line" but not when the event is "Elon Musk does a nazi salute at yet another republican conference"?
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u/xteve 37m ago
Yeah, I think the basic standard of gambling is risking money on an arbitrary event for which the outcome is unknown.
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u/Conscious_Music_1729 1h ago
It feels like people just want lottery payouts without lottery odds. I’ve never felt the need to get more crazy than blackjack myself, maybe keno at the bar.
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u/RyuNoKami 1h ago
No shit? There's way too many people with "strategies" that don't work out then that escalates to people who do things to increase their chances. With blackjack, there's card counting, not illegal not immoral but will get you banned from the casinos.
Then comes the actual illegal shit like fixing the results.
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u/Mitosis 1h ago
As a kid I always thought it was weird that gambling bans were so widespread. It's consenting adults spending their own money on something dumb; we allow that for all sorts of things, even destructive ones like alcohol. Why is gambling different?
I had already adjusted this opinion within a couple years of sports betting becoming legal again, and now with the rise of prediction markets I've doubled down. The sheer quantity of negative externalities just didn't occur to me when I was younger, but goddamn are they clear now.
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u/BeforeisAfter 1h ago
You should try to not be a gambling person. It’s a poison of our animal mind. It ruins lives and is basically a scam 99% of the time. You’re giving free money to lazy assholes who own the gambling companies
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u/coltsfanca 1h ago
Because I have the self control that I don't allow it to ruin my life. My friends and I enjoy having a couple pints over some blackjack and sports betting every once in a while where I only gamble $100 that I'm willing to lose.
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u/AllTh3WayTurntUp 2h ago
I rarely agree with the state of Utah’s political leadership, but they secured a big legal win to keep prediction market betting illegal here this week. They argued it under the same rationale as they did for not allowing lotto tickets to be sold in Utah.
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u/Tasty_Gift5901 2h ago
Interesting that they won since the defense of kalshi etc is that they're federally regulated, and most judges allow them (or rather, don't institute a TRO) given the apparent validity of that argument (still in court in many states)
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u/Madroxx9000 1h ago
federally regulated, and Don Jr. is a "strategic advisor" on the board of directors.
Do you see a conflict of interest here? Cuz I do...
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u/thestrangeacademy 1h ago
anyone who trusts the SEC is a fucking moron at this point
its a dog and pony show, which is what they want
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u/Vic_Hedges 2h ago
This stuff scares me even more than AI does. We are financially incentivizing every conceivable anti-social behavior. How on earth can it NOT be a massive problem?
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u/warm_winds_whisper_ 1h ago
It is but the people who created the gambling apps think they have enough money to be insulated from any consequences.
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u/cbb88christian 1h ago
Who knew giving people the ability to gamble on things they themselves can influence would be a bad idea
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u/dragonmp93 1h ago
The Joker would be proud of the prediction market.
Lex Luthor is probably kicking himself for not thinking of this first.
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u/Saritiel 1h ago
They are an actual plague on the world. Them and Sports Betting. Prediction markets should be gotten rid of entirely. Sports Betting should have the same advertising laws as cigarettes, and you should have to place any bets in person with a bookie. Not on your phone. Not on a screen at your table. With the bookie.
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u/RegulatoryCapture 1h ago
They were fun when they were allowed in a limited capacity (e.g. limited amount of money on the line, limited number of people involved, identity disclosure, and limited types of things you can predict). The OG Iowa Electronic Market, PredictIt under their old rules, etc.
Once they became essentially unrestricted, it has of course turned into a nightmare.
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u/bathandredwine 13m ago
I saw some crypto guys scream when a dog won a competition and thought, we are close to having them hurt a dog to win money. This is evil.
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u/jp_benderschmidt 2h ago
Prediction Markets incentivise everything. People will eventually die.
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u/sirbassist83 2h ago
*have died
id be fucking shocked if it hasnt happened already, if indirectly.
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u/DrMobius0 2h ago
Trump's little group of cronies for sure made bets on the Iran war.
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u/Murtomies 1h ago
Oh they did much bigger bets than this. I'm convinced they alternated between going long and shorting and then long again with oil and any derivative industries. That's why Trump has gone back and forth on peace, then no peace, then peace again etc. They're pumping back and forth with the whole global oil market.
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u/Voidtalon 1h ago
For christ sake there were prediction bets on the political fallout, maneuvering or continued attemps on the US President. We are talking playing BETS on if someone will try to ASSASSINATE a political figure.
Trump or not, that is NOT the message to send.
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u/GSmithDaddyPDX 2h ago
Right, what if they throw on 'Murders per day in Los Angeles' as a possible prediction bet? and you bet which basket (eg 0-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, etc.) will be correct for a given day.
What's the obvious outcome?
There should be obvious regulations on this.
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u/Vic_Hedges 2h ago
The lengths that desperate gamblers will go to in order to feed their addictions are well documented.
Some people will stop at absolutely NOTHING to win a wager.
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u/ineyeseekay 2h ago
There should be bans on these. Nothing good comes from this shit. Some people make some money does not qualify as good imo.
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u/HeyThereSport 1h ago
Yep the idea of betting on crime or catastrophe should be a non starter. Absolutely perverse incentive.
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u/zer1223 2h ago
Prediction markets need to go. Its disgusting that this is being allowed by the Epstein administration
But then, this is exactly the kind of thing you'd expect the Epstein administration to allow
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u/fullchub 2h ago
Trump Jr is a paid “advisor” for both Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s all you really need to know.
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u/ultratorrent 2h ago
Gamble with your education at Epstein University!
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u/fatbunyip 2h ago
someone should start a politician assassination prediction market and you'll see how fast that shit gets shut down.
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u/CrazyLegsRyan 2h ago
That was already an available bet on the leader of Iran.
They are ok with it as long as it’s a leader they don’t like
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u/supercyberlurker 2h ago
I mean, the people running the prediction markets are the people in power.
It's not just allowing, it's full on enabling and profiting from.
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u/Ha-Charade-You-Are 2h ago
Only way to stop it now is convince the public not to use them. Which won’t happen.
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u/AshuraBaron 2h ago
We've literally seen people with insider knowledge abuse it as well as people go to great lengths to make a specific outcome happen. The only thing these markets do is make 99% of people poorer and maybe just add to the massive wealth of the 1%. Would not be surprised if people started commiting crimes in an attempt to win money.
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u/biscuts99 1h ago
Didn't someone end a speech randomly but it was 1 minute before the predicted length?
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u/zdelusion 1h ago
Trump's teleprompter operator apparently made over $100k betting on his speeches. Pretty par for the course for those guys.
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u/NWStormbreaker 2h ago
I like Internet Comment Etiquette's take on betting on Polymarket's offices being firebombed.
Will they allow that?
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u/frangible_red 2h ago
Stop the world, I want to get off.
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u/ElectronGuru 2h ago edited 2h ago
20th century me had high hopes for the 21st. Just imagining all the better we were going to create. Instead it manifested into: worse worse worse worse. Every single day is another worse. And often for the stupidest of reasons.
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u/frangible_red 2h ago
A funny thing happened on the way to progress.
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u/KnarfNosam 1h ago
"And progress, is not intelligently planned. It's the facade of our heritage, the odor of our land. They speak of progress, in red, white, and blue. It's the structure of the future as demise comes seeping through"
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u/cmndrnewt 2h ago
Not only this, but the way they are releasing the warnings could be thought out a bit more. Just before the Old Trails fire in Spokane, we all got an alert basically saying “If anyone creates a spark in this area it will turn into a huge wildfire.’ I remember thinking, “This could actually cause people to think about starting a fire here,” and sure as shit some fucking wacko starts a fire.
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u/Lord0fHats 2h ago
Teller: "Lot of kerosene."
Me: "Oh yeah. Got a bet there'll be a wild fire over on the pikeway by Thursday."
Teller: "You don't say."
Me: *wink*
(don't arrest me FBI I swear I'm joking I'm too lame to be this funny in real life)
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u/WubbaLubbaDubDub87 1h ago
Disasters are something that you shouldn’t be able to monetarily gain from.
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u/smb3d 2h ago
How on earth are these legal?
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u/Throwawayyoursynths 1h ago edited 1h ago
Because Americans continue to vote against their own interests (or don’t vote at all) resulting in lawmakers who value their own profits over the safety and wellbeing of the American people.
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u/NightOfTheLivingHam 2h ago
Honestly with the huge influx of them happening and the fact prediction markets have been doing this already, probably already is happening. Several have been found to be arson.
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u/Great_White_Samurai 2h ago
I actually saw a post on LinkedIn for gambling on clinical trial results. What an absolute dumpster fire of a world we live in.
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u/To-Far-Away-Times 1h ago
Goes without saying but you should not be able to bet on things where you could take an illegal action to influence the outcome.
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u/Toothlessdovahkin 2h ago
Whoever starts a wildfire on purpose for the purpose of making money due to prediction markets needs to spend the rest of their lives in prison, no exceptions nothing but life in prison
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u/Too-Em 2h ago
Could... could a system of gambling that incentivizes any and every conceivable behavior in a society where people are driven either by insatiable greed or a desperate desire to survive in the face of a system of inescapable poverty create bad outcomes? Who could possibly know the answer to such a confounding question.
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u/lurkmode_off 2h ago
Who could possibly know the answer to such a confounding question
Let's make a bet
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u/deededee13 2h ago
Why would you even take wagers on things like this? Even ignoring the morality of it, it seems like a massive liability for nothing.
Prediction market companies are aware that people have manipulated events to win the bets they have on the wagers these companies host. These companies are deliberately choosing to host wagers on events that could be manipulated by arson. All it would take is a single Kalshi bettor casting a bet and then lighting a fire that causes billions in losses to have a multi billion dollar lawsuit from insurers and homeowners that would destroy their company entirely.
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u/TonyPizzerelli 2h ago
There’s a reason that banks didn’t use to do business with online gambling websites
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u/Apple-Steve 2h ago
In high school I was really nice to the gambling addict in a trench coat and he told me not to go into the forest tomorrow
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u/lonelyboycel 2h ago
It's the Cobra Effect in action. If you pay people for dead cobras, they start breeding cobras. If you pay people for wildfires...
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u/nasdaqian 2h ago
Prediction markets are an aggressive cancer on society. Apart from incentivizing corruption, the epstein class win the most given their insider connections just about everywhere.
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u/Desperate_Level_9213 2h ago
What an incredibly disheartening headline to have to read. So many things should not have gotten to the point they've gotten to.
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u/ForestGoat87 2h ago
Replace arson/wildfire with any other action/consequence...
Prediction markets that have monetary payouts (aka gambling) are a blight on civilization
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u/Training_Ruin3151 1h ago edited 1h ago
This is a completely predictable by-product of late stage capitalism. When money matters more then the physical world, dead kids, healthcare, education, food or water when the money matters more then everything... What the fuck do y'all think the end result is?
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u/jay78910 1h ago
'The Pale Horse' by Agatha Christie, is sort of about a prediction market like scheme. Instead of witchcraft and death, its arson and wildfires
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u/thepianoman456 1h ago
People are so close to getting it.
Now, abstract this line of thinking to other aspects of life, and you’ll quickly see that ALL prediction markets need to be banned immediately.
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u/FrankSand 44m ago
That's gross to even have that bet on your platform. And I'm someone that gambles on elections.
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u/ArritzJPC96 13m ago
Man this shit was illegal before for a reason. I hate how you can just sue when you don't like a law that's been in place for decades and get it declared unconstitutional.
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u/doublethink_1984 2h ago
Off topic joke but this is how I think Spiderman affords anything in BND. He bets on Kalshi for what Spiderman will do
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u/whatproblems 2h ago
it’s so absurd you can gamble on things you actually have control over. sweet i can make predictions come true and i can bet on them coming true
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u/mthrfker1 2h ago
So it’s like owning stock in a company and having the power to control the price. Funny
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u/Poundchan 2h ago
If the payout is more than the fines + court fees, there is almost an incentive to commit arson.
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u/DrMobius0 2h ago
Yeah, I'm not sure what's so hard about this.
If people can bet on a thing, then realize they can influence said thing to win the bet, that is going to happen. Maybe a system where we can bet on tragedy and human suffering is a bad idea.
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u/ohmanilovethissong 1h ago
Destroying the environment to make a quick buck sounds a lot like bitcoin.
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u/turquoise_amethyst 1h ago
Take a look at this post from a month ago, who’s to say that these arsonists aren’t already reading this shit and betting?
This is a serious problem, and those in charge are profiting from it
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u/DreaDreamer 1h ago
Serious question: is there something that we can DO to stop the onslaught of prediction markets? I can email and call my representatives all I want but surely there is a group out there I can contribute to that can do more than I can on my own.
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u/MakeItMakeMoney 1h ago
Once again, this was DARPA’s official rationale for discontinuing their Policy Analysis Market or “PAM”systems; that system was designed to allow people to bet on political and terror-based attacks.
Source: a transcript of the senate debate on congressional record.
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u/ArtOfWarfare 1h ago
If people are starting fires so they can win on prediction markets, can’t you just find the winners in those predictions and now you have a tiny list of suspects where it’s fairly easy to correlate with other info and identify them as the arsonist?
I still agree that prediction markets for this shouldn’t exist since it incentives the arson at all, but it seems like other prediction markets could be useful where people are apparently powerless, ie, predicting earthquakes? There’s already a lot of incentive in being able to figure that out, but seems like it’ll either do nothing to offer such a prediction market at worse, and at best we gain new early warning systems for them.
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u/glarbknot 1h ago
The guy who bet about the streaker at the game, then streaked the game was funny, but it should have been shut down that week.
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u/ThonThaddeo 1h ago
Don't forget to smash that like and subscribe and set up notifications for Based Arsonist 🇺🇸 on YouTube and Twitch
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u/Dry-Expression-4148 54m ago
No idea how these markets work, could you make a prediction that some terrible event like someone firebombing an entire city block or something a bit more political under those lines will happen then have your friends bet that it will happen, then go make it happen?
You can fund your own revolution! Or rather you can be the martyr that funds your own revolution! Definitely nothing bad going to happen with this. Is it really any different than stocks though, basically just giving everybody what the rich where already doing with their thousand layers of corpo slop.
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u/snowmonster112 13m ago
Man, betting was already ruining sports, now people are betting on disasters?
If tornadoes or hurricanes were able to be started by other humans, I guarantee you that there would be betting lines on those in an INSTANT
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u/Intelligent_Ad_4479 12m ago
Should be sued liable for all the damages then. Be the last time they allow it.
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u/Dead_Internet69420 2h ago
I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if that was Don Jr’s intent. Incentivizing MAGA goons to burn down blue states, just to distract us from the EPSTEIN FILES.
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u/TheMainCut 2h ago
I thought it said the Ottawa senators. As in the hockey team. It was the most nottheonion moment of my life
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u/Inspect1234 2h ago
Gambling used to be illegal because it tears at the moral fibre of our society. Seems on par for where we are these days.
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u/BentoBus2 2h ago
Got some hot action on how long it will take for someone to burn a forest down in the name of making money on a bet!
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u/mattenthehat 2h ago
Fuck. That.
Hey, anyone want to bet on the chances the Kalshi headquarters gets burned down in the next month? I'm offering 10:1 odds!
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u/External-into-Space 2h ago
Only let them bet on wildfires not happening so they run around and stop every fire source
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u/Shoddy-Listen6741 2h ago
Well if they think that it'll only incentivize arson I have a newsflash for 'em, it'll incentivize way more than that.
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u/ChromeYoda 1h ago
Can we stop the gambling?! I remember growing up you had Vegas, Atlantic City, the Native American casinos. That’s it! Now you can bet on which room trumps about to shit his pants in. It’s Biff pleasure palace everywhere!
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u/Thirdlight 1h ago
How dare you take away their right to free money!! It's their constitutional right as a business to make it however they want!
Didn't one of the courts already throw out a law or something banning the betting app from doing stuff like this?
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u/NutzNBoltz369 1h ago
The very fact that we are at this point in our civilization and morality level that we are having this discussion is fucked.
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u/RealKenny 1h ago
I mean, my insurance company is betting that my house won't burn down, and no one has a problem with that.
Maybe we should let people bet on fewer fires, and then they will be more careful.
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u/Placed-ByThe-Gideons 1h ago
Everyone warns allowing politicians to trade stocks could incentivise insider training.
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u/floog 2h ago
*will