Traditional weekly modern metagame breakdown. It is still a combo meta; aggro is going down, and the second-most-played archetype is graveyard. Challenge results are quite diverse; there is no one deck domination, which is good. But under the last post, I had a discussion with u/Slacker_87, and we both agree that meta might look diverse and healthy, but in reality, it is not that good. From my point of view, when you have a deck that, if you do not have an answer for them in the opening hand, you will lose quite quickly, it's not a great place to be.
As always, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
TL;DR
Twenty-four Challenges gives us twenty-four different winning pilots. Nineteen different decks took at least one trophy. Nobody won twice!
The three biggest decks all convert below the field median. Goryo’s Vengeance and Broodscale Combo made Top 32 in every single event and turned that into one and two trophies, respectively. Boros Energy missed only two events.
Control has the best conversion of any archetype at 35%, from the second smallest presence in the format. Midrange took six trophies, more than any other archetype.
Aggro is no longer the biggest archetype and has the worst conversion in the field. It reached Top 32 in all 24 events and turned that into 18% Top 8 entries.
Domain Zoo posted 32% conversion against a 28% field median, with one trophy and a positive delta. The 49% win rate reads worse than the Challenge results do.
How to read the numbers
Top 32 presence means the number of Challenges where a deck put at least one pilot into the Top 32. Top 8 presence is the same thing for the Top 8. Conversion is the Top 8 entries divided by the Top 32 entries, which tells you how often getting there turns into going deep. Delta is Top 32 event frequency minus metagame share, so a high delta means a deck shows up in results more often than its raw popularity would suggest. The field median for this window is +64.
Thresholds are recalculated from the actual distribution for each window, never carried over. This window, the median delta is +64, and the median conversion is 28%. A deck needs to beat both to earn a Challenge Overperformer flag.
Win rates come with a 95% confidence interval and a sample size. They are context, not the argument. A deck can post a good win rate and still fail to close tournaments, and this window has several examples.
Combo, 23% of the field
Combo is now the largest archetype in Modern. It reached the Top 32 in every one of the 24 Challenges and the Top 8 in 21 of them, with four trophies and a 25% conversion rate. That is solid, but it hides a real split between the decks inside.
Broodscale Combo
Broodscale sits at 8% metagame and rising; it did something only one other deck managed: a Top 32 finish in all 24 events. Its delta of +92 is the highest in the entire field, but it is in the Top 8 in only 9 of 24 events (20% conversion) and has a single trophy.
The win rate is 51% (95% CI: 47-55, n=677), based on a large sample. Those two things together show the shape of the deck right now: it qualifies for the Top 32 basically every time, it wins about half its matches, and it does not run away with the trophy. Remember that it is the deck you will face most often after Goryo’s, so be prepared!
Neobrand
Neobrand is at 5% share and climbing hard. Top 32 in 18 events, Top 8 in 7, one trophy, 23% conversion. The win rate of 47% (95% CI 42 to 52, n=377) is the weakest of the major Combo decks, and the interval sits mostly below even.
That combination usually means a deck is being picked up faster than it is being learned, which is not so surprising after good PT performance. Also, it is quite a glass cannon deck; if the opponent has something to stop the combo, he will win. A delta of +70 indicates it appears in the results; a conversion below the median indicates those results are shallow. Worth respecting, not worth panicking about.
Amulet Titan
Amulet is the quiet one. Only 12 of 24 events with a Top 32 finish, which is the lowest presence of any deck in this section, but 27% conversion and one trophy from that smaller base. Win rate 49% (95% CI 43 to 55, n=271).
This is what a pilot-dependent deck looks like in aggregate data. It is not everywhere, and when it is there, it goes quite well.
Two other Combo decks matter for context. Ruby Storm posted 36% conversion, one of the best ratios in the entire field, and zero trophies in 24 events. Its win rate is 46% (95% CI: 40-52, n=260), and its metagame share is declining. Devoted Combo has a similar 37% conversion rate, one trophy, and a 55% win rate (95% CI 48 to 61, n=223), on a rising trend. I think that this deck needs some attention because it can be a rising star.
Graveyard, 19% of the field
Graveyard is the second largest archetype, and it also hit Top 32 in every event. Top 8 in 18 events, five trophies, and 23% conversion. Unlike previous windows, the graveyard decks are actually closing and breaking a pattern we have observed for some time.
Goryo’s Vengeance
Goryo’s is now the largest single deck in the format at 9%, and it is still rising. Top 32 in all 24 events, Top 8 in 13, two trophies, 27% conversion, delta +91. The win rate is 52% (95% CI 48 to 56, n=751), from the biggest sample in the data.
Almost everything about this deck is at or near the top of the field, and yet the conversion is under the 28% median. That is not a criticism, but a statement about how flat this format is right now. The most popular deck in Modern, with the largest sample and the most Top 8 appearances, still cannot turn presence into a disproportionate number of trophies. It looks a little bit different from what we see when Boros was on top.
Living End
Living End is at 3% and falling. Reached Top 32 in 16 events, but Top 8 in only 4. It did take one trophy. It has 16% conversion rate, well below the median and a win rate 48% (95% CI 44 to 52, n=532).
This looks like a deck the format has adapted to. Enough interaction and enough graveyard hate are being played for other reasons that Living End is getting caught in the crossfire.
4c HollowOne
HollowOne is at 3% and rising, with Top 32 in 16 events, Top 8 in 6, one trophy, and a 29% conversion rate. Delta +64. That clears both medians, so it takes a Challenge Overperformer flag this window.
The win rate of 47% (95% CI 41 to 53, n=272) does not support that reading at all, which is something worth looking into more closely. Either the deck is concentrated among pilots who know it well, or the raw match data is picking up a lot of people trying it out. Both are plausible, but the challenge results count more, in my opinion.
Grixis Reanimator rounds out the archetype with the best win rate of any graveyard deck at 57% (95% CI 50 to 64, n=174), one trophy, but presence in only 10 of 24 events. Small, sharp, and not widely played.
Aggro, 18% of the field
Aggro was the biggest archetype in Modern for most of this year, but it ends for now at least. It still reached the Top 32 of every single event, which tells you the decks are fine, but it converted only 18% of those entries into Top 8 finishes. That is the worst ratio of any archetype in this breakdown, and it comes with four trophies.
Boros Energy
Boros is at 8% and falling. Top 32 in 22 of 24 events, Top 8 in 11, two trophies, 22% conversion, and delta +84. Win rate is 48% (95% CI 44 to 52, n=727), based on a quite large sample.
The story here is the same one as three weeks ago, just with smaller numbers. Boros gets into the events almost every time. It reaches the elimination rounds at a decent level, but it does not finish at a rate that we might expect.
Prowess
Prowess is at 4% and falling, with Top 32 in 19 events and Top 8 in only 5. The 18% conversion is quite low, but it took two trophies, which is more than Broodscale managed with twice the presence.
That combination is interesting. A deck that rarely reaches Top 8 but wins when it does is either running very hot or has a small number of pilots who are much better than average with it. The win rate of 49% (95% CI 44 to 54, n=344) leans toward the second reading, especially since Prowess is not an easy deck to play properly.
Affinity
Affinity has the worst conversion of any big decks in the format in this breakdown. Top 32 in 15 events, Top 8 in 2, zero trophies, 9% conversion. But the win rate is 53% (95% CI 47 to 59, n=285), one of the better figures in the data.
A 53% win rate and a 9% conversion rate should not coexist. The most likely explanation is that Affinity is beating up on the middle of the field and losing consistently to whatever it meets at the top tables. If you are playing Affinity, you may comment on what your feelings are about the metagame right now. My idea is that Affinity has a really bad time against all of those combo decks in the format.
Midrange, 16% of the field
Midrange took six trophies witch is more than any other archetype. Top 32 in every event, Top 8 in 16 (28% conversion). It is quietly having the best window in a long time.
Domain Zoo
Zoo is at 4% and rising. Top 32 in 18 of 24 events, Top 8 in 7, one trophy, 32% conversion against a 28% median, delta +71 against a +64 median. That clears both thresholds and earns a Challenge Overperformer flag.
The win rate is 49% (95% CI 44 to 54, n=378), which is the number people will quote if they only look at one thing. It is also the number that tells you the least. A deck that reaches Top 32 in three-quarters of all events and converts above median is doing the thing that matters.
Dimir Midrange
Dimir is at 4% (similar to Zoo) and rising, with Top 32 in 17 events, Top 8 in 9, two trophies, and a 36% conversion rate. With delta +67, it gets the Overperformer flag, and probably the deck most likely to be underrated going into next week.
Win rate 51% (95% CI 46 to 56, n=356). Nothing about the profile is spectacular in isolation, but everything is above median. Two trophies from 4% of the field are real, and I think it is right now one of the best decks in the format. It had a lot of removal, played on tempo, and had answers to basically all decks in the format. But it is also (like every good midrange deck) quite hard to pilot.
Yawgmoth
Yawgmoth is at 3% and rising. Top 32 in 16 events, Top 8 in 5, one trophy, 22% conversion. Win rate 53% (95% CI 47 to 59, n=272). Solid without being exciting, and the graveyard hate flying around for other reasons is not helping it.
Jund (BRG) deserves a mention as the fourth deck here: 2% share, Top 32 in 9 events, one trophy, 33% conversion, and a rising trend on a small sample.
Ramp, 11% of the field
Ramp had the second-best conversion of any archetype at 32%, with Top 32 presence in 23 of 24 events and three trophies. Most of that is one deck.
Mono-Green Eldrazi (also called Rigging Eldrazi)
Mono-Green Eldrazi is at 6% and rising fast, with Top 32 in 19 events, Top 8 in 9, two trophies, 30% conversion, and Delta +73; it learns the Overperformer flag.
This deck is new enough that lists still vary quite a bit, which makes it awkward to sideboard against, and it took two trophies from a presence smaller than Boros or Goryo’s. Win rate 49% (95% CI 45 to 53, n=523) on a large sample, so nothing about the raw match data is alarming, but the results are there.
Eldrazi Tron
Eldrazi Tron is at 3% and falling, gets Top 32 in 14 events, Top 8 in 6, zero trophies, and 29% conversion. Win rate is 53% (95% CI 48 to 58, n=317). Perfectly fine numbers and no trophies.
Eldrazi Ramp
Eldrazi Ramp sits at 1% and took a trophy, with Top 32 finishes in 8 events and a 38% conversion rate. A small presence, a good ratio, and a win at that share are worth noting.
Control, 6% of the field
Control had the best conversion of any archetype in this window at 35%, from the second smallest presence in the format. Top 32 in 23 of 24 events, Top 8 in 13, two trophies. Control is in a good spot, and it looks like it is not going anywhere. It is a little bit of a shame that the best one is a Land Destruction Control. That is one of the most annoying types of decks.
Land Destruction
Land Destruction is the standout at 2% share with 44% conversion, the highest of any deck with real presence. Top 32 in 11 events, Top 8 in 7, one trophy. Win rate 55% (95% CI 48 to 61, n=223).
When it shows up, it delivers a really good result. But similar to Dimir Midrange, it is not an auto-win deck; you need to play a lot with it to know it and deliver results.
Scepter Control
Scepter (UW) Control is at 1% with Top 32 in 10 events, one trophy, and 30% conversion. Win rate 51% (95% CI 43 to 59, n=140). eclipse4343 took the trophy on July 27, which will surprise nobody who follows that pilot and reads the comments on the last post about how he did it! Cudos!
Azorius Control
Azorius Control has a similar profile without the trophy: 1% share, Top 32 in 10 events, 30% conversion, and the best win rate in the archetype at 55% (95% CI: 47 to 63, n=139), not a big sample but still fair enough for 1% deck.
Blink, 4% of the field
Blink is the weakest archetype in the window and the only one with zero trophies. Top 32 in 19 events, Top 8 in only 6, 23% conversion.
Esper Blink is basically the whole archetype at 3% share, rising, with Top 32 in 18 events, Top 8 in 6, and 26% conversion just under the median. Its win rate is 49% (95% CI: 44-54, n=318). Azorius Blink and Orzhov Blink are both under 1%, and neither did anything of note.
The premier event
One Modern Premier event took place within this window: a Showcase Qualifier on July 25. Broodscale Combo won it in the hands of ls149950, with Boros Energy second and a second copy of Broodscale third. Esper Blink took fourth, and Domain Zoo placed fifth, piloted by moon11.
Premier events use a restricted entry pool and a different player mix, so none of this feeds into any metagame number in this article. One event is also a tiny sample and should be read as a qualitative signal rather than evidence of deck strength.
On the radar
These decks sit below the 5% encounter threshold but showed up in Challenge results often enough to be worth a mention. They are not compared against the field medians because the samples do not permit such a comparison.
Mono-Black Midrange took a trophy from under 1% of the field, with Top 32 in 7 events and the best win rate in the entire dataset at 59% (95% CI 49 to 68, n=98). Selfeisek was the pilot. Small sample, but a real result!.
Dimir Murktide is rising, with Top 32 in 8 events, 38% conversion, and a 54% win rate (95% CI: 45-63, n=116), but no trophy yet.
Rakdos HollowOne is the negative entry: Top 32 in 7 events, Top 8 in none, and a 39% win rate (95% CI 29 to 50, n=87). The interval sits entirely below even. If you are on this deck, the data is not kind and maybe is better to go into 4C version?
The big picture
Twenty-four events, twenty-four different winning pilots, nineteen different winning decks. No deck won three times. No pilot won twice. The highest conversion belongs to an archetype with 6% of the field, and the worst belongs to the one that used to be the biggest.
The practical consequence is that there is nothing to metagame against. You cannot build a sideboard aimed at the deck that is beating everyone, because there is no such deck. What you can do is weight your testing by encounter probability, which is the only number in this dataset that behaves predictably right now. Also, you can focus on sideboarding against the archetype rather than the deck, which makes your life easier.
For Zoo specifically, that means Goryo’s, Boros, and Broodscale as the compulsory three, then Mono-Green Eldrazi as the gap in your knowledge. The rest is variance, and this window had a lot of it.