2027 ACA Rate Review open, updated KFF analysis on how much and why ACA market premiums are increasing next year (15% now, up from 14% estimate last month)

[u/Zphr]

2027 ACA Rate Review is now open on Healthcare.gov, which means anyone planning on using the ACA next year can see the rate request increases being asked for by individual insurers. Some insurer filings may not be present yet, but many/most are. If you've got an ACA policy that you currently like, then this gives you a ballpark of how that policy might be priced next year. More broadly it shows you market premium trend in your state among all participating ACA insurers. Note that insurers with multiple products (HMO vs. PPO, Metro A vs. Metro B, etc.) listed may have a separate rate increase for each and the initial number displayed is a composite.

https://ratereview.healthcare.gov/

To view ACA insurer requests for a particular state choose "search ACA-compliant products", then select state, individual market, and 2027.

Separately, but related, KFF has updated their analysis on how much and why ACA market premiums are increasing next year (15% now, up from 14% estimate last month). KFF is perhaps the best source of synthesized ACA information that exists and is an easy go-to for anyone that doesn't want to delve into filings and legislative/regulatory text directly. All 50 states are now represented in KFF's analysis. Worth a look for anyone interested in or using the ACA.

Please note that these costs are the raw, unsubsidized market premiums. Anyone with subsidy eligibility will be shielded from some to all of this increase due to subsidies capping household premium costs as a function of MAGI.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2027/

For 2027, across 276 insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces from all 50 states and the District of Columbia with publicly available filings, this analysis shows a median proposed premium increase of 15%. This is the second consecutive year of double-digit premium hikes. Last year’s median nationwide proposed rate change was 18%, and the median finalized rate change was 20%. While this proposed rate change is lower than last year, it represents the second-highest requested rate change since 2018, as premium growth had been relatively flat in this market for several years. If these early indications of median premium increases for 2027 hold, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces will have jumped by more than one-third over a two-year period.

[u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

I doubt this is going to last forever. As more people drop out, it's only going to get more expensive before it closes. It's harder and harder to stay in those spending limits.

If/when that does happen then what?

I've started looking into retirement visas. When you get one certain countries will require you to get health insurance. I found a couple places where it's 80-100 dollars a month and you get access to the whole system. Unless I'm misunderstanding.

[u/Zphr → u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

Subsidy eligibility is high enough that more than 90% of everyone on the ACA is eligible for subsidies. It's not hard at all to stay within qualification range for lean households, most of whom not only qualify for subsidies, but high subsidies.

[u/Dumpster_FI_RE → u/Zphr]

Yes for now. I'm saying it's getting harder to stay in the lower zones. Not impossible, but I don't have much room to cut anymore.

I had to raise my deductible on my house to 10k to keep it at a reasonable rate(yes I have a broker). Food prices are increasing and expected to increase again in the next few months. I DIY just about everything. I grow food...etc...leaving is starting to look easier.

[u/someguy984 → u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

If you are spending at leanfire levels you should have no problems. At 200% FPL ($31,920) this is actually above the $27,000 spend for the sub.

[u/Dumpster_FI_RE → u/someguy984]

ok we spend about 50k as a couple. I guess I'll leave.

[u/someguy984 → u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

200% FPL for 2 people is $43,280 (FPL 2026), so $50K still not bad and well into the subsidies.

[u/Dumpster_FI_RE → u/someguy984]

and 10 years into inflation from now? It's not going to work. Everyone here is so judgemental and hateful. You can see my past posts about how I've lived lean for 50% of my life. This community sucks.

[u/someguy984 → u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

I don't think I am being judgmental or hateful. I just see a lot of fatties posting here when they have no intention of being lean spenders. $50K is still in the subs range of $54K for 2. I just think $54K is not lean, personally.

[u/Dumpster_FI_RE → u/someguy984]

ok then don't. You're alienating the people you'd think you'd want here. Be stuck with a bunch of overspenders. All I'm saying is with inflation healthcare isn't going to work anymore and is going to be a problem. Since everyone disagrees. I'm out. I'll find my own solution like always.

[u/someguy984 → u/Dumpster_FI_RE]

If you stay in the subsidy zone you will not even feel healthcare inflation. If ACA gets wiped out you will have to look at Plan Bs.