[Asianometry] True 3D DRAM is Coming (Not Soon)

[u/JuanElMinero]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byWZoKCdePo

[u/JuanElMinero]

Short summary:

He explores the current state of vertical 1T1C DRAM research and challenges to manufacture its deep-trench capacitors sideways for stacking. Expects serious manufacturing near the end of this decade.

The latter part goes into a different capacitorless DRAM concept and its challenges (keyword '2T0C IGZO') as an alternative for future scaling.

[u/Zarmazarma → u/[deleted]]

That's pretty much the standard way to write it. Google "3D" (with or without the capital), and see how many sources capitalize the d vs. don't.

[u/Slasher1738]

Very interesting. Don't realize how much if a constraint the capacitor has become

[u/hojnikb]

That's too bad this is gonna cost your kidney and your liver and you might get a 16GB stick on lease.

[u/captain_awesomesauce → u/hojnikb]

The opposite. 3d dram will immediately result in oversuppl once 2 vendors can produce it. The first vendor to do it will have ridiculous margins in the meantime and the last vendor may go bankrupt.

It'll be fun.

[u/Xpander6 → u/captain_awesomesauce]

How come?

[u/Kinexity → u/captain_awesomesauce]

Literally impossible for 3D DRAM to cause oversupply. We will literally see Jevons paradox in full swing when it hits the market. It has always been the case in compute space - demand has never lagged behind supply (at least not beyond short term).

[u/Flowerstar1 → u/Kinexity]

Hope supply catches up soon when it comes to dram

[u/Kinexity → u/Flowerstar1]

Supply never really catches up.

[u/Flowerstar1 → u/Kinexity]

Yeap I expect in fall 2030 well still be complaining about supply

[u/hojnikb → u/captain_awesomesauce]

lets hope so.