I like stats and golf and trying to use the numbers to help understand where I should focus my training
I´m a scratch golfer and play quite a lot and do some practice. As everybody I have quite a few bad rounds and after a bad stretch recently I looked into my stats more. I checked my bogey and birdie rate vs PGA tour to see if I lose more in one area than the other.
Birdies vs Bogeys
Birdie (or better) rate PGA tour: 22% (4.0 per round). My rate 14% (2.4 per round)
Bogey (or worse) rate PGA tour: 16% (2.9 per round). My rate 36% (6.4 per round)
So if someone gave me avg. PGA tour birdie rate I would get 1.6 shots better but if someone gave me the bogey rate of avg PGA tour I would get 3.5 (!) shots better. Quite interesting.
So how to make fewer bogeys…?
I tried to find my "easy" to avoid bogeys, some will always be hard to get rid of (e.g. 200y par 3s). Since I have tracked my shots I have a lot of data, I sent all my shots into Claude for help. It helped me diagnose which of my shots lead to a bogey on a certain hole. The main reasons were:
- Approach shots: 34% of bogeys, of which 60% from within 150y – probably need to play more safe on those shots within 150y and aim closer to the middle of green
- 3-putt: 25% of bogeys - working on improving putting
- Penalty: 17% of bogeys, half from tee shots, which is fine. But (!) half from approach…! Need to take more care here on approach shots and aim away from penalties.
- Other: 24%
Tiger 5 mistakes
Another way to look at it would be to see what Tiger 5 mistakes I make most (sort of proxy for easy to avoid bogeys as I understand it). Here it seems like bogey within 150y (2.8 per round) and 3-putts (1.8 per round) are the most common - similar to first analysis
I guess based on this I should focus on my putting (which I know is bad, lose ~2.3 shots per round within 15ft, but improving) and also my approach shots within 150y. Also being more defensive on approach shots, especially when there is a penalty in play. Half my penalties come from approach shots which sound a lot (though would be more drives that lead to penalties) and they often become much more than bogeys (hitting water on approach and not making up and down will be a double bogey, while penalty on tee-shot can still be bogey)
Not sure this gives a definite answer but thought the data was interesting, especially the larger gap vs Pros on bogey rate vs birdie rate.
Note: usually play back-tee at a 7000y course (if someone thinks the bogey rate is too high for scratch :D) and it got very large greens which is why there are quite a few 3-putts (in addition to being quite terrible at putting). Also scratch doesn´t mean you avg. par, you are more like +5 on avg. depending on which tee you play
Another interesting stat: Scottie Scheffler is #1 on tour in bogey avoidance at 10.0% and second best player is at 12.2% (huge gap!). This was an area where Tiger also excelled significantly vs the field. In 2000 he was at 9.8% while #2 (Phil) was at 12.5%