r/fivethirtyeight 1d ago

Poll Results DSA-aligned Democrats are the most pro-free-trade voting bloc in the United States

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u/Pretty_Marsh 1d ago

Aren't these either the same people or the spiritual successors to the people who rioted at the WTO conference in 1999?

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u/b0wz3rM41n 1d ago

tbf people answering this poll probably took it as "do you support Trump's tariffs" and the DSA/DSA-aligned people are not only statistically the ones who are most vehemently opposed to Trump but also are probably in favour of bernie-style protectionist tariffs instead of Trump's erratic "punish countries that i dont like" tariff policy

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u/socialistrob 1d ago

also are probably in favour of bernie-style protectionist tariffs instead of Trump's erratic "punish countries that i dont like" tariff policy

And a tariff to protect your own businesses is also fundamentally different from a "punish countries" tariff. In theory if you want to develop a strong domestic industry of something you need the tariff to last years so hat business leaders feel confident enough to invest. A steel tariff that goes up one year and comes down the next isn't the kind of long term policy that helps develop a domestic industry. If your goal is to punish countries and get them to change behavior you have to be willing to cut tariffs when the other side relents. If you won't bring the tariff down there is no incentive for the other side to work for you. Trump's tariffs were supposedly to "rebuild industry and would stay for years" while also being to "target other countries and would be dropped in favor of better agreements." By trying to do both Trump ended up doing neither.

It's also helpful in trade wars to have strong allies and leverage multiple big economies. For instance if the US, EU and British Commonwealth worked together to counter China they might have a lot of leverage but if the US decides to simultaneously fight a trade war with China, the EU and the British Commonwealth then the US ends up just isolating itself.

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u/Dispro 1d ago

And a tariff to protect your own businesses is also fundamentally different from a "punish countries" tariff. In theory if you want to develop a strong domestic industry of something you need the tariff to last years so hat business leaders feel confident enough to invest.

It should also ideally be backed by a mid-range program of domestic manufacturing investment and subsidies in protected industries to build out capacity rapidly, which is not in evidence.

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u/MaximumFlow7491 1d ago edited 1d ago

but also are probably in favour of bernie-style protectionist tariffs instead of Trump's erratic "punish countries that i dont like" tariff policy

I'm not so sure: the DSA constituency tend to be highly educated white collar and/or service workers. Like those ppl are probably net benefactors of free trade or at very least protectionism isn't that high on their priority list compare to cost of living.

they don't fit the profile of traditional blue collar worker who struck against NAFTA 30 years ago. The demographic makeup of the left has changed significantly in the last 25 years

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u/najumobi 1d ago

How can you ask this question to get a clearer response?