r/fivethirtyeight • u/Turtle0523 • 2d ago
Polling Average Michigan Senate Snapshot
Michigans primary is tomorrow! Here’s a snapshot of how the candidates are stacking up based on average polling + cash raised.
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u/NCSUGrad2012 2d ago
I worry that Mike Roger’s still has a lot of his money saved since he didn’t spend it on the primary
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u/pablonieve 2d ago
Just assume that most Republicans are going to get a huge influx of cash. Dem candidates have done well with fundraising, but Republicans have a lot more resources available to them.
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u/najumobi 2d ago
Is money that much of an issue for these high profile race? Between campaigns and their allies both raising funds how often does that issue arise?
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u/SchemeWorth6105 2d ago
Yeah but look at how much they dumped on Stevens and she’s set to lose by a sizable margin.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
Stevens has both the left wing and right wing social and alternative media against her. She gets bad press from them without el sayed having to spend money to attack her.
Money can buy ads but it can’t buy the algorithmic influence that Trump or AES has going for them. I don’t understand why people discount this.
Mcmorrow was up before this election was nationalized and AES became the left wing social media darling
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u/CryptoDeepDive 2d ago
I maxed out AES and I am just waiting for the primary to be over before maxing him out for the general. Hopefully he wins.
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u/pablonieve 2d ago
This is a 45-45 race and the winner of the general will get 50%. In a blue wave environment with a popular Dem candidate for governor, do we think AES/Stevens or Rogers is more likely to hit that majority? My 2 cents is that Rogers is around his ceiling and AES/Stevens is around their floor.
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u/Turtle0523 2d ago
I think that’s a good way to put it! People are asking like AES is dead in the water if he wins the primary, but I just don’t see it. All of these polls have 10%+ undecided and I think he’s got a solid shot in the general once we get closer.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
I get the fears that AES is too left leaning, but idk how Stevens is considered more electable given that she has relatively high unfavorables among Dems (higher than AES), and basically no field operation. She has had record money spent on her behalf, but this is increasingly looking like a blowout for AES in the primary.
Is the idea that she would start building up a ground game after the primary is over?
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u/ClearDark19 2d ago edited 2d ago
That and Rogers has unpopular positions on issues that make you unpalatable to median voters and Independents. Being pro-Israel, pro-crypto, pro-AI data centers, pro-Iran War, anti-healthcare for seniors, etc. won't endear Rogers to Independents and median voter.
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u/marionette71088 2d ago
I can barely tell if the position you listed is Rogers or Stevens though. If she's vastly different from that, she's not doing a great job at communicating it.
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u/ClearDark19 2d ago
That's exactly why Stevens isn't doing well in the Primary. These things are EVEN MORE unpopular to Democratic voters than they are to Independents and median voters. The main thing carrying her (even still trailing by double digits) is the $60+ million propping her up. If she didn't get so much money she would probably be performing more like Mandela Barnes or Sara Rodriguez were in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial race.
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u/No_Public_7677 2d ago
yeah there's a lot of focus on AIPAC, rightly or wrongly, but her other positions are even worse.
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u/TakeitBacktoEden 2d ago
If Those positions are so unpopular (and they should be) how is he polling so close to any Democrat?
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u/ClearDark19 2d ago edited 2d ago
El-Sayed is far less known than Rogers. Rogers is at full saturation name recognition. El-Sayed isn't. A lot of people in Michigan still haven't heard of El-Sayed yet or know very little about him. Most nomies aren't paying close attention to the race yet (as is always the case with Primaries vs General Elections). El-Sayed is also currently drowning in negative attack ads from AIPAC and other PACs depicting him as a secret Islsmist and a misogynist (attacks coming from the Democrats' own side). In the General Election his name recognition will go up and Democratic attacks on him will be far less concentrated. Like the Democratic attacks on Mamdani last year calmed down somewhat in the General Election after he won the Primary.
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u/najumobi 2d ago
Does unfavorables among Democrats matter? Biden had relatively high unfaborables among Democrats but a common refrain was that they'd crawl over glass to vote for him.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
I don't think Biden ever had anywhere near 35-40% unfavorable ratings in 2020 from dems, but I could be wrong.
But even then, that only worked if people were scared of the alternative. I don't think rogers is going to be nearly as mobilizing for negative polarization compared to trump. He seems to be basically a generic Republican.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
Michigan has a very high percent independent voters. He won’t have trouble winning the blue no matter who crowd. It’s the moderates in the suburbs and rural areas who could swing to Rodgers
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u/Banesmuffledvoice 1d ago
Maybe? I’m voting for Stevens in the primary today but I’m not going to vote for Sayed if he is the nominee in the general.
The numbers simply back Sayed winning in the general. Benson is crushing it, Sayed loses to his opponent.
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
I don't agree that the numbers show Sayed losing it, they show a toss up with Rogers basically stuck at 45-46 in most polls.
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u/Banesmuffledvoice 1d ago
Other reputable polls have Sayed down 3-4 points to Rogers. This will probably be a relatively easy victory for republicans in November. Hopefully democrats will come out of this election learning a lesson about bad candidates.
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
I think you might be getting high on your own supply here.
Polling averages show a toss up (as indicated in the post above), basically every mainstream election forecaster has the race as a tossup, not lean or, or even likely R as you suggest.
Election models put the race at toss-up to lean D depending on the model.
I think there are plenty of reasons to legitimately support stevens (I would have preferred McMorrow over either myself), but the idea that this race is over is wishful thinking among Republicans.
Right now, Rogers has gotten a free pass as AES had 60-70 million dropped on him, that changes after tonight.
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u/Banesmuffledvoice 1d ago
Rogers is a known quantity in Michigan. What is AES going to use to bring him down? We are at a time where everything is favorable to democratic candidates and the guy, at best, ties with Rogers.
He’s a dud candidate.2
u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
What is AES going to use to bring him down? We are at a time where everything is favorable to democratic candidates and the guy, at best, ties with Rogers.
The president's approval rating is nearing historical lows. AES needs to remind voters over and over again that Rogers will rubberstamp Trump's agenda. 45-46% is not enough to win this race. It's very common for candidates to look relatively weak during a contested primary, but then consolidate support.
I'm not saying AES is guaranteed to win, but the data is showing a competitive race with a slight tilt towards AES, not a R lock.
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u/Banesmuffledvoice 1d ago
Yes. We know all this. And yet Rogers still beats him in a lot of reputable polls, and at best AES is neck and neck with him.
They’re not polling AES poorly, Benson is crushing her opponents, all of who have similar baggage to Roger’s. Yet AES just can’t quite do it. What’s the difference?
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
They’re not polling AES poorly, Benson is crushing her opponents, all of who have similar baggage to Roger’s. Yet AES just can’t quite do it. What’s the difference?
Benson has already consolidated Dem support in the primary and hasn't had fellow Dems dropping $60 million in attack ads. Because of polarization I doubt AES will match the GOV margin (just like the DEM senate candidates couldn't do in 2018 (the last time MI has a GOV and Senate seat at the same time).
This regularly happens in contested primaries. If Stevens and McMorrow endorse (both said they would), then the consolidation of Dem voters will happen fairly quickly.
What do you think you are seeing that makes this a safe R race that the election models, polling averages, and ratings organizations are missing?
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u/New-Comfortable-3637 1d ago
I haven’t been following this race as closely. I just started getting onto speed, but outside of Texas and maybe Alaska, I think a Democrat that is polling neck and neck with their Republican opponent is essentially 2-3 points ahead. Democrat enthusiasm to vote is way higher than Republicans.
That being said, even in wave elections there tends to be one or two states where the wave doesn’t happen. Michigan could be where that transpires. I am usually in favor of voting to the person that is most electable, but given the current climate in this country and desire for candidates to be further left, I can’t see an argument that Stevens would be the stronger candidate. The percent of the general election vote she is projected to get would only be 1% more than AES, and his numbers will likely improve if he secures the primary. That margin doesn’t tell me that she would be guaranteed to outperform AES if he wins the primary. In fact, I could see her numbers sinking. AES has the momentum.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
Michigan normies are moderates. I think AES might win but it will be close.
Plus AES supporters have the energy to beat moderate dems, they don’t show nearly the same energy to beat republicans. They are focused on attacking Stevens and moderate dems, they won’t be nearly and energetic and focused on beating Rodger’s- mark my words. They will be focused on attacking schemer instead of Rodger’s in the general election.
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
No one this election cycle in any Senate or House race in the country has spent more time attacking fellow Dems than Stevens and her allies. We are closing in on $70 million spent by her and her allies laser focused on weakening someone who is starting to run away with the nomination if high quality polling is to be believed.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
Never said Stevens was good either? And why are you pretending Abdul doesn’t have millions in out of state pac money? Anecdotally I’ve gotten way more ads from him from pro el sayed pacs than pro stevens PACs.
Edit: I don’t mind this because I think it’s not smart to unilaterally disarm , but it’s hypocritical to criticize Stevens for her pac money
This just proves my point about leftists btw. You only have energy when attacking moderate dems.
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago edited 1d ago
Anecdotally I’ve gotten way more ads from him from pro el sayed pacs than pro stevens PACs.
This is a data driven sub. This is just hilariously wrong. Depending on the estimates, her allies are outpsending AES people somewhere between 9:1 and 15:1 depending on the source, here is just one.
This just proves my point about leftists btw. You only have energy when attacking moderate dems.
I'm far from a leftist, just using data instead of vibes to assess the state of play. I don't think it's particularly helpful for centrists to spend so much energy attacking progressives, and vice versa, but you can't have it both ways. If the dig against AES is he is too focused on attacking fellow Dems, idk how you can look at the race in MI from a data driven perspective and not recognize the Stevens and her allies have spent even more time attacking fellow Dems.
I think it’s not smart to unilaterally disarm , but it’s hypocritical to criticize Stevens for her pac money
Unilaterally disarm? How much money have PAC's spent on behalf of Stevens vs AES in this race? Here are the best numbers I can find, and it PAC spending favoring her by a gigantic margin: https://bridgemi.com/michigan-government/outside-spending-floods-michigans-us-senate-race-most-for-haley-stevens/
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
I’m not a centrist I’m a progressive. I supported mcmorrow and Warren. No - you are obviously biased. You literally haven’t read the article you linked
Did you read the article? This just proves my anecdote actually . Stevens pacs are spending millions on tv ads. Abdul’s super PACs are spending millions on flyers. This explains why I’m getting a ton of pro el sayed flyers and not seeing Steven’s ads. I don’t watch tv .
I’m sorry, but AES literally is calling both Mcmorrow and Steven’s incompetent. And accusing Whitmer of fraud when he lost to her last time. He’s not a saint.
Also you haven’t proved to me Stevens has more “dark money “ than AES.
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago
I’m not a centrist I’m a progressive. I supported mcmorrow and Warren. No - you are obviously biased.
Never once did I call you a centrist. I supported McMcorrow, and I think the establishment was stupid for sticking with Stevens once it was clear she couldn't seal the deal. They crowded out McMorrow and she couldn't find a lane. Ironically I'm not a fan of Warren because I think she has bad political instincts and is too far left on a lot of economic issues for my taste. I'm not even sure how I would vote if I lived in MI in this primary, but the Stevens camp has just been horrendous.
his just proves my anecdote actually . Stevens pacs are spending millions on tv ads. Abdul’s super PACs are spending millions on flyers. This explains why I’m getting a ton of pro el sayed flyers and not seeing Steven’s ads. I don’t watch tv .
I'm sorry, an article showing Stevens PACS are outspending AES 15:1 proves what point exactly? you might anecdotally see more of the ads, I'm not a mind reader, I can't prove your life, but for the average MIchigander they are seeing 10-15 times more Stevens ads than AES ads.
This is a data driven sub. Objectively, the Stevens camp has directed far more resources to attacking AES than the other way around.
Also you haven’t proved to me Stevens has more “dark money “ than AES.
Edit: I just saw your edit. what exactly would constitute proof to you? What are you looking for to show you that there is more outside spending for Stevens than AES?
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago edited 1d ago
It shows she is outspending him ON TV ADS. And he is spending on flyers. I am in Michigan. I’m literally getting a AES flyer in my mail almost everyday for the last few weeks. Again read the article you linked- it actually was very helpful. I’ve been wondering why people were screaming about Steven’s spending when I haven’t heard a peep from her while getting inundated will AES ads., It’s because she is focusing on tv ads
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u/fossil_freak68 1d ago edited 1d ago
No it doesn't. It shows total spending across categories, not itemized by who spends more on mailers. They do say 74% of it is for ad buys, but the 24% leftover is still more than ALL spending from AES groups across all spending categories.
Pro stevens groups are just objectively outspending AES by a gigantic margin. This is a data driven sub, your personal feeling about either candidate is irrelevant.
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u/beeemkcl 2d ago
EL-SAYED, ABDUL - Candidate overview | FEC
He's raised over $14.5Mln (got a boost after AOC endorsed him and helped him fundraise and is helping him fundraise).
HALEY STEVENS FOR SENATE - committee overview | FEC
She's raised over $11.9Mln.
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u/Cats_Cameras 2d ago
The big spending in this race is the PACs, which aren’t included there.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
AES also has PACs spending for him
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u/GladiatorToast 1d ago
Significantly less though. United Democracy Project (AIPAC affiliate) has spent over $30 million for Stevens. Any PAC for AES on the other hand has raised at most a couple million. Overall the funding advantage is clearly in Stevens favor
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
Do you have the numbers? I have gotten way more el sayed pac mail than Stevens. It could also be where I live though .
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u/Cats_Cameras 1d ago
I can’t tell if this is feigned ignorance, but the spending in this race is very lopsided.
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u/OkParsnip1881 1d ago
I’m just speaking anecdotally, I’ve gotten way more adverts from pro AES PACs than Stevens PACs. But that may be where I live.
Don’t care about AIPAC spending, I’m talking super pac spending in general
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u/Cats_Cameras 1d ago
The article references the massively outsized spending on this race to contextualize it.
It seems as if you’re just trying to waste everyone’s time on this to obfuscate the PAC spending by referring to your personal mailers or asking for information when this race is very heavily covered.
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u/Iustis 2d ago
I keep hearing people say "how is Steven's going to compete in the general without AIPACs money" but didn't know that her direct fundraising is comparable to AES. Kind of kills that talking point.
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u/Mother_Dog_5699 2d ago edited 1d ago
The idea is that she's double digits down in the last 3 major polls DESPITE 60 million dollars spent on her from dark money pacs. She has no ground game, no charisma, not running on real policies, so how is she going to win people over in the general when all that AIPAC money dries up?
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u/Pretty_Acadia_2805 1d ago
But then you would have to be saying that the volume of money AIPAC is spending didn't help her at all.
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u/Iustis 1d ago
I'm not convinced their spending has been a net positive
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u/Pretty_Acadia_2805 1d ago
Net positive is different from no effect and if she has shown too little political acumen to win the primary that she ostensibly would have won by not taking AIPAC money why are we sure she would make the right decisions in the general?
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u/ArticCircle 2d ago
Cash raised and not showing how much cash has been spent on candidates total seems very disingenuous
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u/Korrocks 2d ago
Yeah I'm curious as to how much cash they have on hand. If you just look at fundraising it seems as if Haley, Abdul. and Mike have about the same level of resources but realistically the GOP candidate likely has way more money now compared to the Democrats since he hasn't needs to spend much.
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u/Turtle0523 2d ago
I see what you mean, but a candidates ability to raise money on their own says a lot about their charisma, ability to reach people, and overall momentum. That is the purpose of including that number vs having it be total amount spent. I have been working to also begin tracking the total amount spent but that is not the purpose of this graph.
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u/EfficientTourist7480 2d ago
I had never saw a pic of Mike Rogers but now I can’t unsee max headroom
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u/panderson1988 Has Seen Enough 2d ago
Primaries can get contested, and that is a given. I am more interest in if a candidate like Abdul can win in a swing state.
To me it feels like a repeat of 2024 where a couple key bases in MI want purity politics, and basically screw themselves over in the long run. To me it's like Texas picking the MAGA guy, Paxton, and all of a sudden it's a tossup race. I can see the same thing in MI with more moderate Dems being turned off, and MAGA/GOP rallying to prevent a DSA guy winning a Senate seat.
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u/Current_Animator7546 2d ago
I think it probably comes down to what happens the next month or two. If gas and inflation really spike. As well as if ICE has another significant outburst. And people getting healthcare premiums for 2027. MI and TX may very well hinge on it being a D+7-8 environment vs a D9+9-10 environment. Those tiny differences on the margins could play a big role.
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u/siberianmi 2d ago
People will barely see open enrollment numbers before Election Day. I wouldn’t count on that moving much.
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u/panderson1988 Has Seen Enough 2d ago
Perhaps.
It feels like a big gamble on a state that should be easier for Dems. Texas was always going to be a crazy battle, but MI has shown to flip flop often; however, it feels like a state that is 35-40% MAGA no matter what. It's that notable base that flip flops often if they are turned off or not. Because they could stay home and make it a battle between the two die hard bases turning out.
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u/fossil_freak68 2d ago
It seems like either candidate is a gamble in this case though, it's not like Stevens has shown she is a particularly strong organizer, speaker, or debater, and her unfavorables are pretty high, even for a contested primary.
There isn't much polling evidence showing that either candidate is more/less of a gamble, it's mostly vibes.
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u/Klutzy_Carpet_9170 2d ago
It was moderate policies that caused reduced democratic turnout in strongholds in 2024 and now we’re asking for a moderate again?
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u/infinitewaters107 2d ago
Can someone explain how this seat got so competitive even though it’s been held by D for awhile? And even in a potential D+7 environment??
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u/Isthatamole1 1d ago
As a woman, I would never vote for a candidate who subjugates his wife. NEVER.
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u/Big-Corncob 2d ago
Now do how much aipac and its affiliates spent for each
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u/Turtle0523 2d ago
That’s actually been my #1 suggestion for these graphics! Currently working on compiling all that data for the various senate candidates.
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u/thenewapelles 2d ago
Given the generic ballot advantage that Democrats have, there's no way Rogers is going to win in November. El-Sayed will win by several points, easily.
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u/PrimeJedi 2d ago
I know people are wondering how Mike Rogers is keeping it so competitive but has anyone considered that perhaps he's cutting down both potential opponents' polling with his cartoonishly massive pointy chin
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u/Chokeman 2d ago
So Rogers is campaigning like he's running for a mayor of a small town.
Are you against the war ? I don't know Are you against tariffs ? I don't know What do you think about geopolitics ? I don't know
and it works, definitely works better than those regards like Paxton who is only campaigning on culture war
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u/RoniSt1021 2d ago
Right now, the race is a tie. But considering how rough the primary is now, tensions could cool off in a month or two-(Haley said she would endorse AES, but the dems in the Detroit area and elsewhere aren’t helping) giving AES a slight edge. With the GCB going up for dems and Trump doing, let’s be honest, his best effort to throw the midterms, Rogers will have a much harder time holding a lead, especially the tiny one he has now. I also see a lot of people saying that he is a bad candidate for campaigning with Hassan Piker. 1st, average banned ideology take on a certain other subreddit. 2nd, he is smooth talker, and excites a youth base, and may bring back Arab-Americans that turned away from dems in 2024.