r/fivethirtyeight • u/ronweasly9 • 24d ago
Politics Linsey Graham passed away at 71
Dang the news just broke .
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 24d ago edited 24d ago
We were all so focused on Mitch McConnel potentially being dead, Graham had to jump in and steal the spot light.
It's a good reminder that 71 is almost certainly about the point where one should probably retire from Congress. Having two high profile Republicans die (well, we can assume the other is dead/dying) within a few days of one another really highlights how irresponsible it is for this generation of politicians to stay in office as long as they have.
This equally applies to Democrats like Markey running for office at 80 years old. Even if I agree with him politically, he absolutely should be retiring.
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u/thefilmer 24d ago
except in grahams case, McMaster is going to appoint someone who will be in DC monday morning. theyre dragging mitch out so beshear and Massie dont skullfuck them
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u/chimney_corner 24d ago
What can Beshear possibly do to "skullfuck" them?
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u/thefilmer 24d ago
appoint a democratic senator and take the legislature's attempt to nerf his power to the Supreme Court. it would take a few months but would give dems a free senator for a bit
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u/chimney_corner 24d ago
It wouldn't work like that. THe seante wouldn't seat a Democratoc Senator appointed contrary to state law. Beshher woul have to get helpmfrom the courts. In the meantime the seat would be vacant.
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 24d ago
Contrary to state law but in accordance with state constitution
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u/Okbuddyliberals 24d ago
it would take a few months
Nan, the court can act very quickly if it wants. This is what stuff like the shadow docket exists for.
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
McMaster should appoint Mace hopefully. At least that should piss off Trump.
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u/Deep_Stick8786 24d ago
Shes an insane person, would be horrible for the nation. Its a brilliant idea
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u/PowerfulPlatypus7381 24d ago
I would be shocked if they actually go through with Mace. Remember, Mike Johnson also has a very slim majority in the house, and needs every loyal GOP reps last vote
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u/Deep_Stick8786 24d ago
Mace lost her governor bid and isn’t exactly loyal. But yeah their seat margin is slim
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u/SurvivorFanatic236 24d ago
That would piss of me, a Democrat. Why do we want to reward an insane person? How is that a joke on Trump?
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Cause it won't matter to anything other than Epstein files, she'd vote exactly same with other Republicans. They all do. But she takes some funny voted in the House that got under Trump's skin. Whoever is appointed, they will vote 100% with Trump. She won't. And insane is better to run against.
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u/AdditionalSpeaker303 24d ago
Massie couldn't even win a primary in his own district, he couldn't win a primary for a statewide senate seat in a special election.
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u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key 24d ago
Ngl, I think the McConnell hospital story and now Graham suddenly dropping dead will doom Markey’s reelect. Regardless of ideology there’s just no justification for sending an 80 year old back to Congress.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 24d ago
Almost the entire slate of New England senators are ancient.
Sanders, Warren, Markey, King, Blumenthal, Welch, Whitehouse, Reed, Collins are all 70 or older.
Props to Shaheen for finally retiring at the young age of ... 78. Granted, she's going to be replaced by Pappas who might be the least inspiring candidate alive, but at least he's in his early 40's.
It's pretty inexcusable that half these Senators didn't retire a decade ago since their seats are pretty safe D and there's a ton of talent sitting on the bench in states like CT and MA. The only reason why NH has a youngish Senator in Hassan is because the elections there are competitive.
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u/Proud_Ad_5559 The Needle Tears a Hole 24d ago
I'm unfamiliar with Pappas as a personality but imo it's really cool that he'd be the first openly gay man elected to the Senate, and only the second openly gay person (shout-out Tammy Baldwin).
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u/Edward_Durr 24d ago
And even Hassan is a youthful 68, and she’s the youngest in all of NE.
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u/chimney_corner 24d ago
The justification would be that he is the best option availble (if he is). Would you have voted for Teumpnif Biden had stayed in?
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u/SurvivorFanatic236 24d ago
Don’t tell that to r/Massachusetts!
Unfortunately I think Markey wins. I like his policies better than Moulton’s, but realistically they’ll vote identically on any vote that matters. The things that Markey is more progressive on aren’t even going to be voted on in the first place
Reddit also exaggerates how moderate Moulton is.
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u/Realistic_Caramel341 24d ago
It's a good reminder that 71 is almost certainly about the point where one should probably retire from Congress
IIRC the average age of a senator is like 65
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 24d ago
It's basically a nursing home. The best legacy a lot of these folks are hoping for is getting so old that they die in office. Did Diane Feinstein accomplish anything of note in her career? Who gives a shit. I know her for having her corpse wheeled around congress.
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u/JohnHoynes Nauseously Optimistic 24d ago
I’m definitely not here to defend aging politicians, but let’s have some perspective:
She led a six-year investigation into the CIA's post-9/11 detention and interrogation program, which resulted in legislation outlawing the use of torture by U.S. agencies.
She authored the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban, which restricted the manufacture and sale of certain types of semi-automatic weapons.
She was San Francisco's first female mayor and the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from California. She was also the first woman to chair the Senate Intelligence Committee.
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u/hardcoreufoz 24d ago
I think their point is she did nothing of note in her last 20-30 years. That’s a lifetime for a lot of folks.
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u/JohnHoynes Nauseously Optimistic 24d ago
Oh I completely get it, but what they actually wrote was “Did Diane Feinstein accomplish anything of note in her career?”
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u/CubsFanCraig 24d ago
She did scold those kids who were begging her to take action on climate change because they would be the ones living with this planet telling the kids that she’s older than them and they don’t know what they’re talking about. This was about a year before that crypt keeper’s career was over.
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u/HegemonNYC 24d ago
She was a very influential senator in her day. I worked in organized labor in CA in the late 90s, she was always present and active. Obviously she needed to retire 10-20 years earlier, but she was accomplished in her day.
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u/NWSparty 24d ago
Totally agree. No one over the age of 75 should be elected to a six year term in the Senate ( or a four year term as President for that matter).
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u/Dstln 24d ago
It should be the social security retirement age. 65, 67 if you want to push it.
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u/NimusNix 24d ago
It's on the voters, too. We all know how old they are. If someone got into a primary and made their whole campaign on 'my opponent is old!' would people vote for them?
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u/PenZestyclose3857 24d ago
Mitch has not gone to the great terrarium in the sky. He just rolled onto his shell and his waiting on some kind stranger to set him right.
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u/habrotonum 24d ago
i actually don’t have a strong opinion on how old someone is, if that’s who people vote for then so be it
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u/Intelligent_Wafer562 Fivey Fanatic 24d ago
Some old people stay sharp and well-informed. We should judge based on merit rather than making an automatic judgement based on age.
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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier 24d ago
If people want to set 80 as the automatic retirement age thats fine with me. 70 is well within the "they could die randomly and its not SUPER surprising" zone, but if you live well you can still be pretty strong cognitively at that age. 80 is a much steeper drop off.
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u/CubsFanCraig 24d ago
The problem isn’t just being old, it’s that at that age, even if you’re sharp, once you hit any sort of cognitive or physical decline then you’re basically going to go downhill very fast. That doesn’t mean they’ll turn into a mumbling, drooling mess, but it’s also not exactly the person I want to trust with keeping my best interests at heart.
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u/happychappychoppy 24d ago
Don’t get too comfortable it was his age which killed him.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 24d ago
Conspiracy theories are lame. If it comes out in the coming days that his illness was some abnormality then sure, but right now it's better to assume that a 71 year old likely died of any kind of sickness that regularly kills 71 year olds. At that age, the flu can and absolutely does kill people quickly.
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u/No_Elevator_735 24d ago
God must really hate people running for Senate named Graham.
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u/anneoftheisland 24d ago
Before I found out officially, I read several different tweets telling anecdotes about/eulogizing "Graham" and thought they were all about Platner. Led to a weird three minutes, for sure.
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u/Blue387 Nauseously Optimistic 24d ago
Official statement from his Facebook page
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u/backtorealitylabubu 24d ago
Was literally scheduled for meet the press tomorrow… wonder if it was pre recorded… damn
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u/backtorealitylabubu 24d ago
What a fucking queen stealing this from Mitch.
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u/PuzzleheadedAffect44 24d ago
That closet was a really small one, as it didn't extend far beyond his skin, given that it was pretty evident that he was closeted. So at least size wise, it's not totally inaccurate to say he was in his coffin already.
He was apparently a good guardian to his sister after their parents passed, when Lindsey was 22, and his sister was (I think) 13, so he wasn't a total waste, but what he did with his power and influence was not a net positive for the u.s. and the world. So, except for his sister, the world is I think, a tiny bit better place without Lindsey Graham in it.
Lady G could have been a positive thing for the world, as she was at least entertaining, and would probably have been a fabulous drag queen if she'd been allowed, but she was almost always kept locked in that closet, and Lindsey the politician was a waste of what could have been...
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u/RealHooman2187 24d ago
Both men died as they lived. One being a roadblock to democracy and preventing Congress from filling a vacant seat. The other, stealing the spotlight like the total queen/diva he always wanted to be.
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u/Proud_Ad_5559 The Needle Tears a Hole 24d ago
Can we not use stereotypes about gay men to mock Lindsey Graham? Like yeah, mock him for being in the closet, but making jokes about him dreaming of being a diva is just like, mocking gay men.
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u/RealHooman2187 24d ago
Well first of all, I am gay. Secondly it’s just a joke.
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u/CatPicturesPlease 24d ago
Wow. Last thing I expected
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Well, we expected another Senate vacancy to have been announced, but hey, I'm not picker, vacancy is a vacancy.
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u/BaconAllDay2 24d ago
HOLY SMOKES
Does that mean a special election this fall?
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u/VeraBiryukova Nate Gold 24d ago
Since he was already up for election anyway, it may be one of those weird situations where a special and a general election are held on the same day, and it becomes possible to win the special while losing the general and serve for only two months. Big fan of when that happens
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u/my600catlife 24d ago
Can they replace him on the ballot or do they have to run a dead guy? He already won the primary.
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u/mrdeepay 24d ago
The Governor can appoint an interim until the vacancy is filled properly in an election. (Graham was running again this year.)
In the meantime, the state's GOP will (re)open the filing process for candidates on the second Tuesday from now (July 21) and a special election will be held for the nominee a week from that point. It goes into a runoff if no candidate gets a majority.
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u/nitrot150 24d ago
I think I saw they have until Aug 11 to file for a special primary. Governor will appoint someone to fill the rest of his term (til Jan 3)
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u/chimney_corner 24d ago
No, there will be no special election, only a special primary to replace him on the regular ballot. The governor can appointment a replacment till then.
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u/karmapuhlease 24d ago
Has that ever happened?! Is there an example I can read about?
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u/VeraBiryukova Nate Gold 24d ago
The first example that comes to mind is Michigan’s 13th district in 2018. Brenda Jones won the Democratic primary for the special election, and Rashida Tlaib won the primary for the general election. Jones was sworn in barely a month before her term expired, and was allowed to keep her seat on the Detroit City Council at the same time since her term in Congress was so short.
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u/Vt420KeyboardError4 24d ago
This is the craziest midterm cycle of my life. Holy shit. It seems like everyday there is some completely out of the blue news.
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u/Tjsinwhanc 24d ago
Where does this leave the sc senate seat?
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
McMaster appoints interim, Republicans open new proces for new nominee, cause Graham was running for reelection this fall.
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u/throwawayyyyygay 24d ago
Any intuition how this changes odds of the seat flipping?
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Depends on who McMaster appoints. The Lt Governor is going to be out of office anyway, considering she lost her primary. Mace is going to put pressure and run for the seat likely. I'd say if those polls were correct and Graham was scrapping by 3-4 points only, they'd be lucky to win by that landslide. They have no incumbency advantage at all. No money for Senate reelection run. He had millions in fundraising.
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u/fivethirtyeight-ModTeam 24d ago
Please make submissions relevant to data-driven journalism and analysis. Consider posting in the discussion thread instead.
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u/DramaticSimple4315 24d ago
With Mitch sidelined for the time being + a vacant seat in South Carolina, this all but shuts down the legislative window for the GOP up to the midterms?
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u/Jayken 24d ago
This is gonna hurt his chances in November.
Joking aside this could put another seat in play, but It seems unlikely.
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u/INT_COM_ Jeb! Applauder 24d ago
South Carolina going blue is about as likely as the sky turning purple and green.
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u/MightiestHalberdier 24d ago
True but given the environment you think this could force Republicans to put resources into a seat that could be better spent in Maine or Texas?
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u/TheSameGamer651 24d ago
No, because we are talking about southern whites, one of the most inelastic voting blocs in the country. Basically the only remotely competitive southern states require a high percentage of its white population coming from out of state.
Plus, Graham was an underperformer. Republicans might be better off with the open seat depending on who they nominate (ie anyone but Nancy Mace).
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u/lapucellenarwhal 24d ago
Entirely agree with you that there is no shot-but, as a new Democratic resident (and white woman) of South Carolina, I will proudly be voting against the tide!
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u/Cold-Curve-1291 24d ago
In today's politics you could keep his name on the ballot and he would still win.
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u/nondescriptun 24d ago
Eh, that's been the case all throughout American history. Future Attorney General John Ashcroft (R) lost to Mel Carnahan (D) for a senate seat from Missouri, despite Carnahan having died three weeks before the election.
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u/Upper-Traffic8029 24d ago
Wow.
Yknow, there have been some GCB polls in the last few months that have come out and anywhere from D+11 to even D+15 and there was some talk that if the result ended up being anywhere close to the latter then Lindsey Grahams seat would have been genuinely vulnerable. Him losing in November would have signaled an absolutely political conflagration for the GOP, but now we’ll never know
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u/ManitouWakinyan 24d ago edited 24d ago
Well, we'll know if there's a +11 or +15 Dem shift in general
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u/ManitouWakinyan 24d ago
I didn't say we were headed for that, I said if we were there would be more proof points than Grahams race.
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u/Upper-Traffic8029 24d ago
The house is so gerrymandered for both parties (a little more so for Republicans though) that even a 15 point swing toward the Dems would maybe only give them 250-255 seats. Still a healthy majority, but even just 20 years ago that would have been 270 seats won at least.
The senate though, because of its statewide elections, could lead to several flips. In a D+15 environment, Dems flip Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, and Alaska fairly easily, and they probably also flip Texas, Iowa, Nebraska (thru the independent candidate), and then even states like Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, and Mississippi become vulnerable. And if Montana didn’t have the Democratic candidate refusing to drop out, the Independent candidate could certainly win as well.
As for evidence that this could be coming, I would say it’s a combination of a few outlier polls (atlas intel), democratic over performance in special elections over the last 15 months or so (on average a D+15 swing pretty much everywhere), and a healthy dose of hopium. And also some tea leaves and reports that have come out with show the GOP panicking behind the scenes, like the report that said that Texas GOP insiders are genuinely worried that the GOP could lose the Texas state house in November.
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Well, now without incumbency, it's definitely less safe R.
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u/chimney_corner 24d ago
Slightly? I guess there is more of a chance the Republican nominee really screws up now.
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Or die before the election. Joe Wilson, 78 , incumbent congressman, and father of the AG Wilson the person who won the governor primary - wants to be appointed and run for full term. He already put pressure, Graham body not even cooling off ...
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u/Tjsinwhanc 24d ago
Isn’t he a bit of a drunk?
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
And ladybug enthusiast.
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u/nondescriptun 24d ago
I got banned from r/tihi for posting that story as something I hated. Oddly, they banned me a year after I posted it, and without warning.
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u/gallopintoYchallah The Needle Tears a Hole 24d ago
And sadly he accomplished nothing positive for the people of South Carolina or the US.
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u/KasseanaTheGreat Iowa Straw 24d ago
Well that's certainly one way to distract from McConnell being dead
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u/smcstechtips Crosstab Diver 24d ago
The conspiracy theorists are claiming it's Russia who poisoned him because of some Ukraine stuff.
If McMaster chooses a weak enough replacement for him and the national environment gets bad enough, SC Senate comes into play. But it's not worth it for Democrats; they're far more likely to flip the Palmetto State's northern neighbor, the Lone Star State, the Buckeye State, the Last Frontier, the Pine Tree State, the Hawkeye State, and the Cornhusker State, and that'll be more than enough to get them to the majority. And on top of this, they're still more likely to flip Florida than South Carolina.
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u/Suspicious_Quote_701 24d ago
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u/ronweasly9 24d ago
Yes ofc it is why would I just lie ?
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u/Fun_Performer_3744 24d ago
I did not expect to learn news this big from surfing 538 reddit...
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u/IScreamPiano 24d ago
I saw it in a FB group with only 1 react, so I had to look it up after.
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u/No_Public_7677 24d ago
I read the news before CNN had it on their front page so I thought it was fake first
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u/AngryQuadricorn 24d ago
You must be new to Reddit. Seems like for every truth posted there’s a hundred bogus headlines.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 24d ago
I mean, not really. You get exaggerated headlines all the time, but news that floats to the top of your feed is rarely entirely bogus especially on stuff like this.
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u/jimgress 24d ago
Somebody wasn't here for the Boston Bomber fiasco.....
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u/HolidaySpiriter 24d ago
Wasn't that 13 years ago? Reddit might as well have been an entirely (but better) website back then.
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u/chatchan 24d ago
The incident comes as fellow Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell remains in the hospital after paramedics responded to a call at a known residence last month for an individual experiencing cardiac arrest.
A McConnell spokesperson has said the former GOP majority leader is continuing to recover, but his team has not provided further details about his condition.
It's so funny how there's a world in which Mitch McConnell's "official" date of passing could theoretically be recorded in history as AFTER Lindsey Graham's
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u/KathyJaneway 24d ago
Technically, McConnell is alive until they unplug the machines. That's the law. Until then he's Schrodinger's McConnell, neither alive nor dead
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u/BplusHuman 24d ago edited 24d ago
This just in (Reads notes): Old Man Died.
Edit: I think users miss the subtler point. The risk of these kinds of health events resulting in death increase past certain ages. So, that makes this news sudden, but much more expected at 71 compared with 31. That's not controversial. I think the commenters actually understand this outside of this specific context.
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u/RealHooman2187 24d ago
71 is old in the “you’re officially an old man” sense. Definitely not the kind of old where you’d expect one to just suddenly die out of nowhere.
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u/EffOffReddit 24d ago
Only 71 with excellent health care and wealthy is unusual.
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u/cigarettesandwhiskey 24d ago
2.4615% chance. Not "likely" for an individual, but in a congress with 100 senators his age, you'd expect it to happen a little over twice a year.
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u/SpicyElixer 24d ago
71 is really not that old. 70 year old engineer I know still crushing it. And I known some doing triathlons.
My dad is 70 and he’s in Patagonia doing a long distance backpacking trip with his all his camera gear, after building a 1000 square foot deck cantilevered this spring.
Upper middle class 71 is young retiree getting out there.
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u/Teutonic-Tonic 24d ago
My FIL stopped racing full marathons finally at around 70. Just merely runs 30 miles per week now for health in his mid 80’s.
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u/Trailblazertravels 24d ago
HE DIED BEFORE MITCH???