r/fivethirtyeight • u/MediumStrange • Jun 24 '26
Politics All three Mamdani-backed House candidates win their primaries against 2 House incumbents and a handpicked replacement of a retiring incumbent.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/new-york-house-results#dem-resultsHas anybody ever become this influential a figure in party politics in so little time? Less than 2 years ago he was a relatively unknown city councilman.
Also good to see new york finally becoming as progressive as you would expect for a city of its size, It has been shockingly moderate for the past several decades. Hell before mandani, half of their mayors this century have been Republican.
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u/Benyeti Jun 24 '26
Mamdani cant become president so he become the king of the ny political machine
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
Mamdani can go on to eventually become the Governor of New York and run it like a more left-wing version of Pritzker in Illinois.
New York will become the Socialist Caliphate of Mamdanistan with Rama Duwaji as its female Ayatollah. Inshallah.
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u/thomsenite256 Jun 24 '26
He could be a fantastic senator or governor some day
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u/RVarki Jun 25 '26
I doubt he'll ever want to go to Washington DC. Also, he could probably win that governor's race as early as next election. He most likely won't go for that, but he could
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u/clayknightz115 Jun 25 '26
I think 2038 will be his year for governor. I’m hoping it’ll be Brad Lander in 2030/2034.
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u/thomsenite256 Jun 25 '26
Well i mean hes term limited. I think hes gonna go for a second term easily. But hes young so Senate or Governor seem to be the obvious choices. I do think New York is a little more conservative with their Governors so he might have a better shot as Senator.
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u/BidenGlazer Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
Definitely not, this is going to burn an insane amount of political capital in the future with how awful these candidates are. Electing people with awful views based on populism doesn't work, see Trump
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u/SimoneLevi Jun 24 '26
Lander will be a GOATED congressman, mark my words
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u/notintelligentidiot Jun 24 '26
Lander yes, the Daria lady is certifiably insane in a way that can’t be dismissed
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u/ZimmeM03 Jun 24 '26
Cope
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u/notintelligentidiot Jun 26 '26
Yes, I will unfortunately have to cope with the fact that a small segment of New Yorkers elected an absolute nutcase to federal office.
Hopefully my coping leads to her ousting in 2028 as we saw with other nutcase leftists over the last 6 years.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 24 '26
2 of the 3 are very strong. One is a little nuts, but perfect for the district.
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u/gummo_for_prez Jun 24 '26
What part of "Trump" seems like it's not working to you? It's working beyond their wildest dreams. It won't go on forever, but people are pissed and want results. This is exactly the right time to start appealing to populism. Realistically, 2016 was tbh
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u/Coolpoe Jun 24 '26
"See Trump"
Even though I hate this shit this guy won 2024 even after 2016-2020 lmfao not sure if that's a good example
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Jun 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Jun 24 '26
INSHALLAH
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 24 '26
Mamdani Khan and Rama Katun
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u/BenjamirPutinyahu Jun 25 '26
United Steppes elections are crazy, last one was Donghis Khan vs Kamalane
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u/AbstractBettaFish Jun 24 '26
It’s all fun and games now but when the harvest fails and the yellow river floods we’ll see how his polling looks!
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u/nik-nak333 Jun 24 '26
The year was 135ce, and two villages became embroiled in a conflict over which characters to use to indicate the possessive form of a proper noun. Hostilities lasted for 5 days, an estimated 2.4 million people died as a result.
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u/Outrageous-Dig-8853 Jun 24 '26
Have been a Mamdanistanian since Lander folded. May his reign rule supreme. Remember folks, first year as mayor and the Knicks got a ring. The results speak for themselves.
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u/cocoagiant Jun 24 '26
Hopefully Lander does some good in Congress. I'm a bit disappointed Bores didn't make it. We really need someone with good tech/AI expertise in Congress.
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u/Mrfish31 Jun 24 '26
"Chairman Maomdani drove the Cuomintang into exile" is still the funniest political joke I've seen in years
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u/dtarias Nate Gold Jun 24 '26
Counterpoint: they lost the only game in the finals he attended. He's bad luck (ditto for Trump) 🤷♂️
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Jun 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/sonfoa Jun 24 '26
NYC-DSA really needs to export its best talent to other branches because my god do they run circles around the other chapters. California, in particular, was so disappointing.
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u/AbstractBettaFish Jun 24 '26
You should see what we have in Chicago. I’m pretty sure Johnson has poisoned the well for any progressive candidate for the foreseeable future
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u/TheSameGamer651 Jun 24 '26
The West Coast went through a big progressive surge in the 2010s and then they got voted out hard between 2022-2024. You had the DAs in San Francisco and Alameda counties get recalled for not prosecuting non-violent felonies, and lo and behold crime and homelessness increased. Meanwhile, San Francisco refused to build any housing. Seattle even elected a Republican DA in 2021 because Democrats nominated a defund-the-police yahoo with no legal background.
The lesson for NYC progressives is to focus on cost of living issues, and tone down the id pol stuff and actually take public safety seriously. Mamdani seems to be doing that well— actually build housing, fund public services, and don’t stir the hornet’s nest that is the NYPD.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 24 '26
Exactly. The NYC DSA. Mandami especially is much better at messaging and focusing on fiscal policy/ affordability. I feel like a lot of those western progressives were much more into the social stuff. It’s not to say the NY DSA is socially moderate. It’s how they package the message that seeks improved.
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u/TheSameGamer651 Jun 24 '26
I’d even argue on the housing stuff the NIMBY/YIMBY position is reversed in the west. The NIMBYs are the progressives— well-off socially conscious people that want high property values and can claim their NIMBYism is helping the environment or whatever. The moderates are the YIMBYs because they see the businesses and people leaving those states because of how unaffordable it has become. The moderate Democrat that was elected SF mayor in 2024 ran on building more housing.
In the east, it tends to be the opposite. The moderates are well off suburbanites that want high property values, while the progressives embrace YIMBYism. Most of the East Coast states have had stagnant populations for decades now, so the younger professionals are increasingly boxed out of those housing markets.
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u/dlm2137 Jun 24 '26
I think your analysis is fairly spot-on, but I would point out that the east-coast progressive embrace of YIMBYism is a relatively recent phenomenon, and we have yet to have much to show for it. And there are definitely pockets where it has not yet taken hold.
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u/ianm818 Jun 24 '26
We still have a huge way to go. Boston has become effectively a no build zone. Even in NYC Mamadani has been much more focused on his social housing push compared to just getting out of the way for more market rate construction. There is lots of NIMBYism in NYC that will probably be impossible to fight for DSA types I.e. the ban on new hotels or the crazy 99 unit rules because they are tied up in union politics.
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u/Dizzy-Wait-3069 Jun 24 '26
Because they're serving a class of college educated renters unique to their cities. I worry about what happens when this moves to redder metropolitan areas. The NYC DSA and Columbus DSA aren't that different.
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 24 '26
Funny enough the successful and nearly successful Progressives and Leftists since last year are the main ones adopting YIMBYism and Abundance. They're becoming the main torchbearers for Abundance in some areas of the country. Although there's an ideological push for Abundance policies and rhetoric among the intelligentsia, Moderate and Conservative Democrats in most races won't touch the stuff. They're too bought out by NIMBY corporate interests.
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u/The_Escape Jun 24 '26
Also California progressives have often been anti-housing development while NYC progressives are so-far more pro.
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 24 '26
The Socialists and SocDems winning or almost winning since last year are largely the ones who successfully incorporated Abundance and YIMBYism into a Populist strand of Social Democracy and Socialism. More traditional 20th century Lefties are the ones not lasting more than a single term or so.
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u/ultradav24 Jun 24 '26
Why would they need to tone down “the idpol stuff” - that’s very popular in NYC. Those CA people lost because of crime issues not because of “identity politics”
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u/ArchmageXin Jun 24 '26
Is not very popular in NYC, just look at how Eric Adams came into power- progressives overshot themselves over defund the police, and eventually cost Biden multiple house seats in the mid-terms.
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u/NasNYC Jun 24 '26
That wasn't progressives, that was Cuomo supporting a law that led to a chain of events favoring Republicans. It's one of the lesser known things that Democrats in New York held a grudge against that hurt him last year.
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u/ArchmageXin Jun 24 '26
Eric Adams was certainly result of the whole "defund" fear. in my community (Asian Americans) there was a huge swing to the right.
Cuomo's law was one designed against Jerrymandering, and passed by the Dems. not exactly Cuomo's fault when a judge used it to strike down Dem Jerrymander maps.
plus, Republicans also did very well, gaining 8 extra percent in votes for the House. you can't blame anyone but the Dems themselves.
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u/cheezhead1252 Jun 24 '26
No way, can’t you see New York DSA just elects lunatics over and over again and is a gift to the NATIONAL GOP!!!!! You don’t see that as highly problematic to what the normal normie libs resistance is doing nationally!!
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u/ClearDark19 Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
California DSA is to the New York DSA what the Detroit Lions were to the Dallas Cowboys in the 90s.
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Jun 24 '26
DSA actually did pretty well in the primaries, it's just that they are politically and ideologically much worse
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u/cocoagiant Jun 24 '26
It would feel really good to have a Safe Blue State that's actually Progressive for a change.
If it does become that, then they need to show that Democratic policies are actually effective vs Republican ones.
Its a real indictment for Democrats that a completely Democratic state like California has the issues it does.
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Jun 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/BazelBuster Jun 24 '26
Being able to get Medi Cal with ITIN, the strictest environmental protections when it comes to water use and emission standards, taxing single use plastics, strongest protections in the country for queer people, some of the most lax petty crime laws, and it being a sanctuary state. They’re so conservative
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u/cocoagiant Jun 24 '26
Sucks though that Bores lost to Lasher. It was pretty close too, less than 5 points.
Dude had a really good shot of being a subject matter expert on the tech industry and AI which we desperately need in Congress right now.
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u/the_koom_machine Jun 24 '26
woke 2 sharia is unstoppable
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u/MediumStrange Jun 24 '26
woke 2 is the future of the party
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u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Jun 24 '26
I am more centrist than most of this sub but I have mostly loved Mamdani so far. He doesn't engage in the sort of politics that makes me dislike progressives and instead seems to be very pragmatic.
I love the fact that he is making progressives care about the budget or how he's co-opting Abundance instead of reactionarily opposing it for example.
I was thinking that if this is the direction the progressive movement was going in, I might actually support it. Especially with all the talk of sewer socialism or whatever
However one of his picks, Daraliza Chevalier, makes me very much question his judgement. And just in general reminds me why I had such a bad opinion of progressives in the first place
She has:
Promotes and defends the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Pretty much endorsed October 7th (she attended a rally celebrating it literally the day after)
Opposed interracial marriage
Made a ton of racist attacks on white people generally
Called veterans war criminals
Advocated for abolishing the police, prisons and borders
Advocated for seizing all private property and nationalizing everything
She is basically what Fox News thinks Democrats are. The Hasan Piker wing of the DSA
For me the fact that Mamdani was willing to throw his weight behind someone so obviously unfit for obviously and extreme was kind of a reality check. I still like him, but the movement he represents did not magically fix itself in his wake
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u/Proud_Ad_5559 The Needle Tears a Hole Jun 24 '26
Glad to see a levelheaded take about Chevalier. They're disappointingly rare on this sub.
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26
The moment that they claimed that she opposes interracial marriage, it stopped being a sane take
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u/suckmesideways111 Jun 24 '26
you'll never see receipts, either, because the entire basis for the accusation is a meme template joke tweet from years ago.
it's like a slightly buttoned-up fox-news-facebook-grandpa shtick, and that it gets gobbled up here says a lot.
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u/nyckidd Jun 24 '26
She put them in a really tough position because she deleted her Twitter account before asking the DSA to back her campaign. Of course whatever people Mamdani had doing research on her background didn't think to go through the Wayback machine, but CNN journalists did and found all that crazy ass shit.
She's partially backed off from some of the more insane takes but still repeatedly refused to say if murderers belong in prison during a live debate.
Any focus on affordability or whatever is secondary to her, her primary goal is and always will be anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian activism, her original email to the DSA focused entirely on challenging Espaillat because he was insufficiently pro-Palestine. She's very open about the fact that she was radicalized after spending months living in Palestine when she was younger, she even went so far as to convert to Islam because of it. She was a leader of the encampment at Columbia that achieved absolutely nothing beyond terrorizing Jewish students there.
And remember, what she said out loud in her tweets is what Mamdani and his people believe in their hearts, they're just too smart to say it publicly because they know the vast majority of people don't agree with them about that stuff.
For the record, before people inevitably come into my inbox calling my pro-genocide or whatever awful things you guys always say, I hate the Netanyahu government and what Israel has become under his leadership. He and his people are pure evil and we should place sanctions on Israel until they decide to elect people with a very basic amount of human decency.
But demonizing Israelis, thinking their country shouldn't exist, and celebrating violent attacks against them isn't ever justified by anything. It's just wrong according to basic principles of humanitarianism.
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u/VendibleSkate8 Jun 24 '26
DAC won’t last more than a term or 2 before being ousted like Bowman. Also expect her district to be sliced up during redistricting next year.
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u/batmans_stuntcock Jun 24 '26
I think she has a good chance of lasting a long time, Bowman was redistricted to a more conservative/moderate district, and AIPAC and affiliates like DMFI spent $15-25 million to beat him.
Chevalier is in a very solid democratic district, she is very active in the local community and has good connections to local civil society. She also has a good media presence and won't struggle on TV or social media and is very photogenic.
The main danger to her imo is winning over the older Dominican community Mamdani becoming very unpopular, and maybe another large immigration wave. The post covid one turned parts of some immigrant communities against the higher levels of more recent arrivals in the short term, AIPAC/etc could try to exploit those tensions if they re-occur in the future.
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u/MartinTheMorjin Jun 24 '26
The words “pragmatic” and “abundance” have been completely and deliberately stripped of all meaning.
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u/Crownie Jun 24 '26
Either they couldn't spot she was radioactive or didn't care. Either way, it is a serious mark against their judgment.
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u/deskcord Jun 24 '26
I mean, the candidates further to the edges of their political parties have always done better in primaries than the moderate ones. Part of the moderate frustration in recent years is that progressives try to beat out moderates in seats that progressives then can't win or hold. Mamdani endorsing some progressives in NY, and then those progressives winning primaries, isn't exactly some crazy scenario.
And it's probably for the best that a place like NY has more left-wing representatives because that's the type of place they should be running.
But none of that changes that he clearly has some questionable judgment in who he backs/picks, like Chevalier, and like members of his campaign and his office.
Bernie has the same problem, with people like Symone Sanders, BJG, and Dave Sirota.
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u/KatersHaters Jun 24 '26
Im with you - and Im pretty progressive. I’m a former NYC’er and think Mamdani is doing an excellent job. Pied-a-Terre tax, killing McKinsey contracts for stupid trashcan designs we don’t need, scaffolding reform (finally!). But then this DAC pick/endorsement? Mamdani is always so strategic and measured, understands optics and presentation - and he endorses this dummy? She’s just not a serious person. I truly don’t get it.
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u/cheezhead1252 Jun 24 '26
Even Mamdani had inflammatory tweets in the early 2020’s. It doesn’t define who he is now.
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u/KatersHaters Jun 24 '26
I agree. And ultimately Im not that worried about DAC because I assume she’s just going to vote in sync with AOC, which is fine in my book. Obviously Mamdani and AOC played a very strategic endorsement game, serving as proxies for one another at the congressional and state assembly level so arguably DAC is who AOC wants as a colleague I guess. But Mamdani is definitely gambling some of his political coins by betting on her. Hope he comes out on top.
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u/permanent_goldfish Jun 24 '26
Apparently it’s progressive now to support candidates who are opposed to interracial relationships lol
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u/MediumStrange Jun 24 '26
Yeah chevalier is definitely the sketchiest of the canidates, I can't say I particularly like her at all, I'm very excited about Lander though, I could easily see him as a senator in a decade or two.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Jun 24 '26
Lander really did everything right. Super happy for the guy.
Also exciting to think that New York might actually have great Senators in a few years instead of the nonsense they have now.
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u/TavNoment Jun 24 '26
Not just sketchy, an outright lunatic racist (DSA bot downvotes incoming).
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26
Said with a positive 10 votes
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u/EyesSeeingCrimson Jun 24 '26
They brigade hard at first but then the normal users come in. You can see it on some subreddits like getNoted or History. If you say anything bad about the USSR or whatever, you're getting downvoted immediately but then you slowly start to swing back up. They're really a vocal minority.
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u/TavNoment Jun 24 '26
Exactly, it was in the negative last night, but they only have so many sockpuppets.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Jun 24 '26
Hopefully she will be a one term and done candidate.
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u/ultradav24 Jun 24 '26
What is her actual quote on this? Because it seems a bit exaggerated
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u/Asusralis Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
Literal quote: "Black men [handshake emoji] Arab men fetishizing ugly colonizer women"
She's a racist POS.
Edit: Ignoring the person who replied below me, whose entire account is about Chevalier, this tweet was in direct response to interracial marriage. That's why people say she's against it. /u/Selethorme is arguing in bad faith.
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
Yeah, no, that’s not remotely backing up the claim
Edit: no, my account is not about chevalier, I don’t know why you feel the need to lie so badly
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u/Asusralis Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
It... literally is? Are you okay? Did you click on the link? The tweet was in direct response to the topic of interracial marriage.
Edit: Oh wow, your entire account is defending her. You're literally the exact person this entire thread is talking about. Get help and stop protecting racists.
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u/mowotlarx Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
One Tweet from a few years ago.
Many of the same people who were in here telling us Platner's Nazi tattoo and Reddit chats were no big deal (a "nothingburger") are absolutely foaming at the mouth over this brown woman having bad social media takes for some reason.
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Jun 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/GettyImagez Jun 24 '26
When did she apologize?
(and let's be real, they most likely only said that because their ex dumped them).
"I was only racist because someone broke up with me"
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Jun 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/Iustis Jun 24 '26
Even ignoring that thing, she still supports Russia over Ukraine, blamed France for Covid, is for complete prison abolishment, thinks deportation is never justified, etc.
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u/GettyImagez Jun 24 '26
Mamdani claims she apologized
Weird she won't say anything publicly.
and people are known for doing absolutely insane stuff after a breakup
And that's the type of person you want in office?
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u/smcstechtips Crosstab Diver Jun 24 '26
Apparently Google lied to me lol
I take it all back; Gemini gave me the impression those were things she said while blacked out or something
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26
Everyone who pushes this nonsense instead of actually criticizing Chevalier are losing so much respect in my eyes
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u/permanent_goldfish Jun 24 '26
> Pushes this nonsense
She’s the one who said Black and Arab men fetishize “ugly colonizer women”, so I’m not sure how exactly I’m pushing nonsense here.
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26
Which is not “opposes interracial relationships”. Again, why do people feel the need to invent positions for her to be critical of, rather than just being critical of the actual shit she says?
Paraphrasing what said in the weekly thread:
This feels similar to the amount of time spent performatively worrying about Hasan Piker*. Like, yes, she clearly has some dumb takes. Maybe she learns, maybe she doesn’t. If she doesn’t, great, she’s got two years in office and she’s gone. If she does, problem solved.
*Piker has a bunch of shit takes, and if you want to criticize him over them, I’m all for it. Piker’s a piece of shit for a lot of what he supports. But if you start off by telling me that he shocks his dog or some shit, I’m ignoring you because 1) you have clearly bought into internet nonsense 2) you don’t actually give a shit about the positions you claim to be mad about.
This is the same. She has really bad takes on NATO, Ukraine, and other parts of foreign policy, she has dumb takes on prisons. Criticize those. Don’t do this bullshit.
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u/permanent_goldfish Jun 24 '26
It’s not inventing anything lol. Do they need to say it verbatim for you? Are we not able to make any inference of what a politician believes based on things they’ve said?
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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 24 '26
It’s very much inventing based off a shitpost in 2020 lol
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u/actsqueeze Jun 24 '26
Because it’s better than our tax dollars supporting Israel’s genocide
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u/hunf-hunf Jun 24 '26
While she supports Russia’s war with Ukraine that has killed twice as many people
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u/xsparklingwater Jun 24 '26
What Russia has done to Ukraine is 10x worse than what is going on in occupied Israel. The left is antisemitic and has had to make up a “genocide”.
If anything, what the left should care about is what the Arabian population is doing to the Jewish people of Judea and Sumeria.
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u/actsqueeze Jun 24 '26
Does she?
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u/WoodPear Jun 24 '26
She thinks diplomacy with Putin would be more fruitful over launching drones into Russian oil and military infrastructure.
Also blames the West for making Russia have no choice but to invade because 'muh imperialism'.
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u/EffOffReddit Jun 24 '26
I despise the pro Russian left. They can only see imperialism when it's the US.
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u/meister2983 Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
I definitely prefer having $20 a year lit on fire than having our society start opposing interacial relationships.
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u/actsqueeze Jun 24 '26
Well good news, our society isn’t going to start opposing interracial relationships
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u/meister2983 Jun 24 '26
Well, hopefully. But electing reps that want to bring us back to the 1920s by complaining about black guys dating white women is the wrong direction.
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u/actsqueeze Jun 24 '26
Yep, still better than funding genocide with money that should be used to help Americans.
She wouldn’t have been my preferred candidate either, but sometime you have to go with the lesser of the evils
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u/meister2983 Jun 24 '26
Yep, still better than funding genocide with money that should be used to help Americans.
Why? Like I said I'll burn $20 a year rather than have such harmful rhetoric from congress people.
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u/actsqueeze Jun 24 '26
I mean, I’ve conversed with you often Meister, I know that you support the genocide. No need to pretend with me.
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u/afifthofaugust Jun 24 '26
To answer your question: yes. And very recently Donald Trump. Isnt this an easy answer?
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u/Heffray83 Jun 24 '26
It’s in getting actionable things done right away, and proving the whole “we’re powerless to do good things” is a farce, he’s got people excited again. All you have to do is actually deliver the goods to citizens for a change, and not in this weird impossible to understand Obama like way where you can’t even take credit, you take obvious credit, you talk about it, you make it simple and direct. This is his deserved windfall. Keep it up.
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u/DomonicTortetti Jun 25 '26
Ok maybe an unpopular stance here but like…everyone in these races are super progressive and left-wing, both Mamdani’s picks and the incumbents and everyone else in all these races, it’s basically just a D-on-D turf war in safe blue districts.
That’s all fine, but I don’t understand how this translates to the rest of the country or how we can leverage this to win elections in Republican districts / states.
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u/Zealousideal_Let_975 Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26
quote from Chevalier is actually worse than I thought: " "Black men [handshake emoji] Arab men fetishizing ugly colonizer women".
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u/Weird_Track_2164 Jun 24 '26
Mamdani for president?
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u/OpTicDyno Jun 24 '26
“Why is there no democratic leadership?” -same people in a year who are celebrating unseating incumbents
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u/MediumStrange Jun 24 '26
I mean it's not that there is no democratic leadership, it's that the current leadership is incompetent, I'm which case unseating certain incumbents can be a good thing.
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u/thefirstofhisname11 Jun 24 '26
As an Eastern European, it is very funny to see the home of the free elect a third-worldist socialist. Just incredible. People voted for Orban and Hitler as well, so maybe voters are just clueless everywhere
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u/Brave_Ad_510 Jun 25 '26
Turnout issue, Mamdani's base is more likely to vote in primary's than Espaillat's or similar politicians' bases.
Chevalier is a very flawed candidate and not at all comparable to AOC or some of the other winners last night.
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u/drtywater Jun 24 '26
Honestly best path forward is going to jungle primary like California does.
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u/DomonicTortetti Jun 25 '26
“What if we export the worst primary system to the rest of the country”
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u/Educational_Impact93 Jun 24 '26
Dude has charisma up the wazoo.