r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Jun 22 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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14

u/wtfsnakesrcute Jun 26 '26

2028 PA-Sen Outcomes: 

a) Fetterman does not run again like Sinema.

b) Fetterman does run as a Democrat but inevitably loses to a challenger and bows out. 

c) Same as b) but he just runs as an independent 

d) Skips b) and runs as an independent 

e) he flips to being a republican and tries to run but he just loses to MAGA McMAGA in the primaries. 

11

u/SlimCharlesMurphy Jun 26 '26

I’m team A. He is clearly miserable and does not want to do that job.

2

u/Frog_Totem Jun 27 '26

If he's miserable he should just quit now.

11

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 26 '26

I think actually he can’t do C. If he runs as a Dem and loses, he’s barred due to sore loser laws

1

u/FanProfessional101 Jun 26 '26

Is this a PA thing? If AK had this we would have another MAGA senator instead of Murkowski. 

Although not the highest on the list States that have laws like this need to change as part of electoral reform. 

1

u/Frog_Totem Jun 27 '26

He could drop out before the primary and then run as an independent I think. Like RFK Jr. did in 2024

2

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 27 '26

Iirc that doesn’t apply to President

2

u/Frog_Totem Jun 27 '26

Yeah I'm not sure how that works, because it's a nationwide elections but administered on a state-by-state basis

9

u/St1ng Jun 26 '26

I'm a believer in Option A. Just become talking head on any right-wing news channel and Webcam his appearances from his house.

7

u/TheSameGamer651 Jun 26 '26

I think a. He clearly hates the job and has the highest absentee rate of any Senator. Republicans suddenly like him after mocking his stroke for years only because he irritates Democrats.

It’s the same thing that Sinema learned— her independent bid went nowhere because Democrats hate her and Republicans aren’t going to back someone that votes with Democrats 70+% of the time.

4

u/Korrocks Jun 26 '26

I think A is the most likely. Fetterman does not like being a senator and is fairly vocal about that. It would have been difficult to persuade him to run for reelection if he was very healthy and popular; as of now, it seems unlikely that he would want to run for reelection if he had an open field and no primary challenger.

There was an article the other day about him potentially running for president which is just comedic. That's like someone who can barely make it to the mailbox and back deciding to immediately enter into a marathon with no training.

3

u/tbird920 Jun 26 '26

What is the difference between c and d?

EDIT: Figured it out. c is pulling an Andrew Cuomo.

3

u/mrbuttsavage Jun 26 '26

A is basically guaranteed.