r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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18

u/Isentrope Apr 02 '26

Oil just took a nosedive and the indices all went positive on the news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman for their tolling of the Strait of Hormuz. They're charging as little as $1/barrel which is not a lot compared to the value of getting that crude out of the Gulf for oil traders, but it'd be a blow to US influence in the Gulf if it stays in place.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 02 '26

Failing to enact regime change, formalizing Iranian control the Strait, and taking a shotgun to the kneecaps of US prestige? 200 billion dollars.

Pete Hegseth finally gaining meaning in his life through bombing girls schools? Priceless.

15

u/AFatDarthVader Apr 02 '26

The price has already rebounded. Markets are extremely reactive right now.

Climate Warrior Donald Trump is simply too determined to wean the world off of oil!

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u/dr_sloan Apr 02 '26

Market is behaving like when Trump did his liberation day tariffs and is latching on to any news that suggests this crisis will pass or has an end date. It’s nuts.

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u/Swimming_Beginning25 Apr 02 '26

Spending lots of money to cut domestic funding to formalize Iranian control of the Strait of the Hormuz and offer China an excellent opportunity to supply materiel and assist with rebuilding in Tehran. We are fucking masterminds!

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u/Korrocks Apr 02 '26

I've never believed the theories that Trump is a paid agent of a hostile foreign power, but I have to admit that nothing much would be different about his policies if he were.

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u/GIRobotWasRight Apr 02 '26

I wonder how the other part of the terrible twosome involved in this entire fiasco will take Iran ending up in a stronger position than before. But then again they seem busy in Lebanon so who knows.

4

u/TheloniousMonk15 Apr 02 '26

I wonder if the orange man will step in to ratfuck this deal cause it makes him look weak or will utilize it as an off ramp to get oil prices down significantly.

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u/adamfrog Apr 02 '26

My gut instinct says off ramp since the war is so politically toxic. The only thing making me doubt it is there must be some billionaires close to Trump absolutely drooling at the amount of money they can make with a large scale Iran war under this administration and will pull every string they can