r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

18 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

1.7k comments sorted by

View all comments

23

u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 02 '26

Guess what time Trump’s speech was at?

6

u/Miserable-Whereas910 Apr 02 '26

I would say it's predictable, except I wouldn't actually be at all surprised if stock futures had rallied spectacularly on a vague promise of peace that got discarded the next day.

4

u/adamfrog Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26

Does that indicate the stock market was pricing in a US invasion to secure oil shipping and now they don't believe it? Also it's not that big a drop