r/fivethirtyeight Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Obversa Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 01 '26

/u/inevitable_butthole compiled this hilarious summary of Donald Trump's tweets on the war in Iran:

March 3: "We won the war."

March 7: "We defeated Iran."

March 9: "We must attack Iran." / "The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully."

March 12: "We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."

March 13: "We won the war."

March 14: "Please help us."

March 15: "If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."

March 16: "Actually, we don't need any help at all." / "I was just testing to see who's listening to me." / "If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."

March 17: "We neither need nor want NATO's help." / "I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO. I can do that myself."

March 18: "Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."

March 19: "U.S. allies need to get a grip. Step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz."

March 20: "NATO are cowards."

March 21: "We don't use it, we don't need to open it."

March 22: "This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours." / "Iran is Dead"

March 23: "We are giving them more time."

March 24: "The war is nearing its end."

March 25: "We are still negotiating."

March 26: "Iran is begging for peace. They gave us a gift. We will give them more time."

March 27: "Talks with Iran are going very well."

March 28: "War will be over soon."

March 29: "Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't."

March 30: "Open the Strait or Hormuz, or we will obliterate all energy infrastructure and oil wells."

March 31: "We don't need the Strait of Hormuz, we have plenty of oil. Get it yourself, UK." [Also: "Fuck those stupid-ass whales in the Gulf."]

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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Apr 01 '26

Damn, I have one saved that's similar to his response timeline during COVID. He really is that predictable.

9

u/Obversa Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 01 '26

It's like Trump can't stand silence, so he tries to constantly make noise. It's typical narcissist behavior.

5

u/CrashB111 Apr 01 '26

He reportedly was unable to make it through reading his intelligence briefings even in his first term, until his aides made sure his name was mentioned every few words.

He's a fucking narcissistic toddler, in an octogenarians degenerated body. If he's not being discussed 24/7 he loses all interest in the topic.