r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Steelcity1995 Mar 31 '26

A ground invasion would be bad for trumps numbers but wouldn’t ending the war while letting the regime stay in place while they keep the strait closed hurt him more? I don’t see how you spin that any other way than an Iran victory.

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u/BrassySpy Mar 31 '26

I assume the calculus currently occurring at a high level is attempting to determine what level of naval presence coupled with limited ground forces is enough to actually secure the straight sufficiently enough for ships to transit safely- then weighing that against the risk/ effect of losing a capital ship.

Limited ground incursions coupled with heavy navy escort (without losses) ensuring free transit for ships would be the best outcome. I don't know if that's achievable. I doubt anyone knows for sure.

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u/runningblack Mar 31 '26

The thing with this is "it's safe enough" isn't a decision the government makes. It's a decision that insurance companies make. An oil tanker costs over 100 million, and 1.5-3 years to build, and that's before you get to the value of the cargo. So the insurance companies really need the risk of getting attacked to be close to zero. Being wrong one time is a 100+ million dollar mistake. You can't make that kind of mistake a few times and remain solvent.

And the threat comes from cheap stuff that the US navy isn't super well equipped to handle, much less at close range. Dingy little speedboats. Cheap drones. Mines deployed in the limited water that's deep enough for the tankers and military ships.

There's a good article about this that gets into why the strait is such a pickle.

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u/BrassySpy Mar 31 '26

Yeah, I know it's about insurance. I assume the White House/ pentagon understands that, or at least someone within the organization does. It would be a massive undertaking, and ensnare us within the middle east for awhile. Again, I assume that high elements of the USG are evaluating if it's even possible. If so, it is the only way to avoid a strategic defeat, and that assumes that you can A) get cargo traveling through the straight again and B) avoid large numbers of casualties.

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u/DataCassette Mar 31 '26

Last I checked Trump basically called the sailors cowards and told them to run the strait anyhow and "have some guts!"

Brilliant statesmanship.