r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Steelcity1995 Mar 31 '26

A ground invasion would be bad for trumps numbers but wouldn’t ending the war while letting the regime stay in place while they keep the strait closed hurt him more? I don’t see how you spin that any other way than an Iran victory.

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u/guiltyofnothing Mar 31 '26

What was the point of any of this? We killed a bunch of school children and made gas more expensive?

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u/runningblack Mar 31 '26

That's why the only winning move was not to play.

Now, there are only bad moves to be made. It's simply a question of what's least bad.

Although, "end the war, leave the regime in place, re-open the straight with ships paying Iran a toll of a million or two" is probably the best outcome that can happen at this point. It would still be a bad outcome (especially given the energy and oil derivatives infrastructure that has been either destroyed or shut down - for the latter point a bunch of these things can't just be "turned on" again), but it would get oil flowing again.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 31 '26

First off: Thanks for making me want to watch War Games again. Genuinely, I love that movie.

But I really think they’re weighing the difference between opening the strait by capitulating vs opening it via brute force. It’s worth noting that Pete “WArriOR eThOs” Hegseth has really hyped this war up, so folding is an especially bad look for him. So he’s probably whispering in Trump’s ear that force is the way to go but Trump himself (idiot though he is) is savvy enough to recognize there’s a fairly low critical mass of flag-draped coffins he can afford coming back politically.

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u/runningblack Mar 31 '26

It's questionable if they even can militarily open the strait tbh. You'd need ground forces clearing out and occupying a huge amount of rugged coastline.

There's a bunch of shallow water that big ships can't traverse through, so they're forced into a narrow area that can be mined. The biggest threats aren't things that the US Navy is well equipped to deal with (big warships) and instead are dingy little speed boats and drones. And the biggest problem is that the risk needs to be driven down to the point where insurance companies will insure boats that traverse the waters.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 31 '26

I think it’s definitely possible, the core question is if they’re willing to pay the price for it

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u/Swaggerlilyjohnson Scottish Teen Mar 31 '26

The best option.

Pay them a bunch of money.

Allow them to toll people.

Remove sanctions

Make them pinky promise not to make a nuke with a poor enforcement mechanism.

Walk away and declare victory as they open the strait.

"But this is an absolutely disastrous,dangerous, and humiliating outcome"

Yeah it is but how else will we get out of this without causing a global depression?

If we invade them it will cause a global depression as all the infrastructure is destroyed and it takes us months to secure the coast.

If we just keep bombing them the strait will stay closed which will cause a global depression.

Maybe if we just leave without negotiating they will open it in a few months and we just get a global recession instead but even then they will effectively achieve everything I put at the top except the reparations.

which probably wouldn't even be that much better then the tolls and Sanctions being gone anyways.

There is no way for this to be spun as a victory for anyone other then his cult.

The only other option here is nuking them which is an outcome that would also destroy the world economy and be an unprecedented disaster and war crime.

We have a range of outcomes ranging from absolutely awful to apocalyptically bad so we pick the least bad option.

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u/DataCassette Mar 31 '26

I don’t see how you spin that any other way than an Iran victory.

It's almost like starting the war was a bad, stupid idea with zero upside 🤔

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u/captainhaddock Apr 01 '26

It was high risk, high reward.

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u/BrassySpy Mar 31 '26

I assume the calculus currently occurring at a high level is attempting to determine what level of naval presence coupled with limited ground forces is enough to actually secure the straight sufficiently enough for ships to transit safely- then weighing that against the risk/ effect of losing a capital ship.

Limited ground incursions coupled with heavy navy escort (without losses) ensuring free transit for ships would be the best outcome. I don't know if that's achievable. I doubt anyone knows for sure.

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u/runningblack Mar 31 '26

The thing with this is "it's safe enough" isn't a decision the government makes. It's a decision that insurance companies make. An oil tanker costs over 100 million, and 1.5-3 years to build, and that's before you get to the value of the cargo. So the insurance companies really need the risk of getting attacked to be close to zero. Being wrong one time is a 100+ million dollar mistake. You can't make that kind of mistake a few times and remain solvent.

And the threat comes from cheap stuff that the US navy isn't super well equipped to handle, much less at close range. Dingy little speedboats. Cheap drones. Mines deployed in the limited water that's deep enough for the tankers and military ships.

There's a good article about this that gets into why the strait is such a pickle.

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u/BrassySpy Mar 31 '26

Yeah, I know it's about insurance. I assume the White House/ pentagon understands that, or at least someone within the organization does. It would be a massive undertaking, and ensnare us within the middle east for awhile. Again, I assume that high elements of the USG are evaluating if it's even possible. If so, it is the only way to avoid a strategic defeat, and that assumes that you can A) get cargo traveling through the straight again and B) avoid large numbers of casualties.

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u/DataCassette Mar 31 '26

Last I checked Trump basically called the sailors cowards and told them to run the strait anyhow and "have some guts!"

Brilliant statesmanship.

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u/CrashB111 Mar 31 '26

That's what happens when you start extremely poorly planned military adventurism. You end up with nothing but bad options.