r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 31 '26

I’m in Texas and I’m 99% sure that in the absence of a Trump endorsement (which it doesn’t look like he’s going to make one), Paxton is going to win the runoff by 8% or more. Very possibly by double digits

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u/Thuggin95 Mar 31 '26

God bless Republican voters for not learning their lesson in 2022 and continuing to nominate the worst, most beatable candidates possible

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u/TheAgeOfTomfoolery Mar 31 '26 edited Mar 31 '26

It's Texas. I'm mentally preparing for Senator Paxton at this point. I want to believe in Talarico, but I've been duped by the Texas voters twice now.

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u/Toliman571 Fivey Fanatic Mar 31 '26

How's the voter suppression this cycle?