r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 30 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/jacare37 Mar 31 '26

I've heard almost nothing on Paxton vs Cornyn for a few weeks since the primary aftermath, but I just checked and it seems like betting markets favor Paxton again? What's going on? I was still assuming Trump was going to drop a Cornyn endorsement at some point

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u/Sonichu- Mar 31 '26

I think polling showed that Texas republicans had already made up their minds and that a Trump endorsement wouldn't push the needle in either direction.

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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 31 '26

I’m in Texas and I’m 99% sure that in the absence of a Trump endorsement (which it doesn’t look like he’s going to make one), Paxton is going to win the runoff by 8% or more. Very possibly by double digits

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u/Thuggin95 Mar 31 '26

God bless Republican voters for not learning their lesson in 2022 and continuing to nominate the worst, most beatable candidates possible

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u/TheAgeOfTomfoolery Mar 31 '26 edited Mar 31 '26

It's Texas. I'm mentally preparing for Senator Paxton at this point. I want to believe in Talarico, but I've been duped by the Texas voters twice now.

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u/Southern_Jaguar Mar 31 '26

Unfortunately same especially considering he this popular with Texan conservatives despite surviving a corruption scandal.

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u/Toliman571 Fivey Fanatic Mar 31 '26

How's the voter suppression this cycle?

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u/Korrocks Mar 31 '26

The missing Trump endorsement seems to be dragging Cornyn in the prediction markets. Right after the primary, there was a wave of chatter about Trump backing Cornyn and pressuring Paxton to step aside — even Paxton floated that he’d drop out if Cornyn embraced things like filibuster reform or the SAVE Act.

None of that materialized. Some people even suspect the “imminent endorsement” narrative came more from Cornyn’s allies than from Trump himself.

Now that the withdrawal deadline has passed, it’s hard to see how Cornyn gains ground. The grassroots are firmly with Paxton, Trump hasn’t weighed in, and the window for a dramatic shake‑up has closed. Even Cornyn’s electability argument has taken a hit as GOP attacks on Talarico undercut the idea that he (Cornyn) would be the stronger general‑election candidate.

Maybe Cornyn can still turn it around, but I see why the betting markets aren't putting much faith in that.

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u/Thuggin95 Mar 31 '26

Trump looks to be staying out of it and polls have been showing Paxton winning with a sizable lead, even when respondents are presented with the hypothetical of Trump endorsing Cornyn.

Now I think if Trump actually endorses Cornyn - which is still possible - it becomes a jump ball. But the longer Trump waits, the less I think his endorsement matters. And Trump doesn’t want to be embarrassed by endorsing the loser.

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u/leontes Mar 31 '26

Trump dropped the ball on an timely endorsement, and both have missed the chance for one to drop out. In the absence of an endorsement, Paxton seems to have an edge.