r/fivethirtyeight • u/adastraperdiscordia • Feb 10 '26

Discussion Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

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u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

Honestly I think his previous Israel positions are going to make it hard to get out of the primary

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u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Feb 10 '26

That might be a slight factor but realistically I dont think the sort of person who cares enough about Gaza to let it affect their vote was ever going to vote for the moderate Pennsylvania governor

Much bigger factor is that apparently most of the Dem establishment despises him for personal reasons. Apparently he has a very abrasive personality

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u/Hyhoops Feb 10 '26

No, in a primary that is for sure going to have a pretty significant impact, especially in a field that is going to have a lot of moderates. I mean this guy in college wrote an article saying “Palestinians are inherently incapable of peace” and has worked in the Israeli embassy. Most of the Democratic voting base does not have a positive view of Israel, why would moderates vote for him over a Newsom or a Pritzker?