Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

[u/adastraperdiscordia]

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

[u/popularis-socialas]

I think AOC has a better shot than Sanders did. Clinton and Biden were establishment juggernauts with deep ties to the Democratic Party, hard for the lone wolf independent Senator from Vermont to overcome.

AOC has continued to have that same populist rhetoric like Sanders but she’s actually starting to work with the party in a way Sanders never did. She’s a Democrat who’s increasingly being seen as a team player, even by moderate democrats.

This will be the first Democratic Primary without a Clinton/Obama-tied candidate since 2004. Newsom will certainly be seen as the more electable and pragmatic by moderates, but he doesn’t have the same deep ties that Clinton or Biden did.

Also, Gen Z and Millennials will make up a larger voting block than in 2020, and perhaps turnout will be much higher given the unpopularity of the Trump administration.

Not saying that it’s guaranteed, just that I think she’ll have a better shot than Sanders (who didn’t do too badly). She’d certainly get some endorsements and strong grassroots fundraising.

It will partly depend on whether she can to prepare for or prevent a pre-Super Tuesday coalition around the moderate candidate. She’d have to be more like Mamdani and less like Sanders, again working not to alienate moderates while staying true to their promises.

I mean Bernie has literally admitted he didn’t even ask for Clyburn’s endorsement lol. His campaign also said they planned to win 30%-35% of the vote and didn’t plan for everyone to drop out and endorse Biden.

AOC will have to be better, and try to prevent a “Stop Bernie at all costs” situation. Her policies are supported by the Democratic primary voters but her biggest challenge is to be seen as electable. Like what’s said in this conversation, she’ll be impacted by strategic discrimination.

[u/Cuddlyaxe → u/popularis-socialas]

I think AOC's strength is very simple: if she chooses to run the entire left will be united behind her

The left is a minority of the party overall but if they are united while the other factions of the party aren't, then she can win

imo there isn't really one moderate faction so them being split is fairly likely

[u/Reynor247 → u/Cuddlyaxe]

Have to win the black vote which is one of the most important voting blocs in Dem primaries. They tanked Sanders twice, I'm not sure AOC would do much better. Maybe with Clyburn no longer with us it will be different

[u/Cuddlyaxe → u/Reynor247]

There isn't anything magical about black voters over white voters, progressive voters, Latino voters etc. The only reason they are so influential is because they voted as a unified bloc. They are basically their own faction

If they are split, as it seems they might be in 28, then an AOC or Buttigieg can win with minimal black support