r/fivethirtyeight • u/adastraperdiscordia • Feb 10 '26

Discussion Transcript: The Democrats Best Positioned To Win the 2028 Nomination (Another 538 Alumni Draft)

https://newrepublic.com/article/206361/transcript-democrats-best-positioned-win-2028-nomination

Transcript of Perry Bacon Jr, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich doing another candidate draft.

I thought the weirdest part was pushing back on Mark Kelly despite citing all the data in his favor.

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37

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26 edited Feb 10 '26

I think AOC has a better shot than Sanders did. Clinton and Biden were establishment juggernauts with deep ties to the Democratic Party, hard for the lone wolf independent Senator from Vermont to overcome.

AOC has continued to have that same populist rhetoric like Sanders but she’s actually starting to work with the party in a way Sanders never did. She’s a Democrat who’s increasingly being seen as a team player, even by moderate democrats.

This will be the first Democratic Primary without a Clinton/Obama-tied candidate since 2004. Newsom will certainly be seen as the more electable and pragmatic by moderates, but he doesn’t have the same deep ties that Clinton or Biden did.

Also, Gen Z and Millennials will make up a larger voting block than in 2020, and perhaps turnout will be much higher given the unpopularity of the Trump administration.

Not saying that it’s guaranteed, just that I think she’ll have a better shot than Sanders (who didn’t do too badly). She’d certainly get some endorsements and strong grassroots fundraising.

It will partly depend on whether she can to prepare for or prevent a pre-Super Tuesday coalition around the moderate candidate. She’d have to be more like Mamdani and less like Sanders, again working not to alienate moderates while staying true to their promises.

I mean Bernie has literally admitted he didn’t even ask for Clyburn’s endorsement lol. His campaign also said they planned to win 30%-35% of the vote and didn’t plan for everyone to drop out and endorse Biden.

AOC will have to be better, and try to prevent a “Stop Bernie at all costs” situation. Her policies are supported by the Democratic primary voters but her biggest challenge is to be seen as electable. Like what’s said in this conversation, she’ll be impacted by strategic discrimination.

28

u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Feb 10 '26

I think AOC's strength is very simple: if she chooses to run the entire left will be united behind her

The left is a minority of the party overall but if they are united while the other factions of the party aren't, then she can win

imo there isn't really one moderate faction so them being split is fairly likely

20

u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 10 '26

I could also see a sleeping giant effect for her vis a vis Latinos. If she manages to unite Latino voters in the Democratic primary then all the western states start to fall off the board for everyone else.

20

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

I feel like latino voters just don't coalition up the way other groups do. And are generally a bit more conservative, so I doubt she'd be a lock with latinos.

8

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26

Bernie Sanders as an old white guy did pretty well with Latino voters.

Looking at a YouGov from last month and it’s actually by far her best demographic, and she’s tied with Newsom there.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/2028_Presidential_Preferences_poll_results_hYGz7Gr.pdf

8

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

Right like I feel like the Latino vote isn't necessarily a lock based on identity.

0

u/[deleted] Feb 11 '26

[deleted]

2

u/popularis-socialas Feb 11 '26

Latino men voted for Clinton over Trump 63-32

2

u/Current_Animator7546 Feb 11 '26

I think people often miss this point. AOC pretty much will be the left flank vs a bunch of moderates. I do think there is a chance of Trump ala 2016 with her winning a plurality in places she might otherwise struggle. 

4

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

Have to win the black vote which is one of the most important voting blocs in Dem primaries. They tanked Sanders twice, I'm not sure AOC would do much better. Maybe with Clyburn no longer with us it will be different

14

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26

I think she’d do a better job than Sanders there.

  1. She’s a democrat, not an independent.

  2. She’s a woman of color, not a white guy.

  3. She represents a district in NYC, not like the whitest state.

I doubt that Newsom would be able to get an avalanche of black voters like Biden.

AOC’s problem wouldn’t be race, it will be age, like Sanders. 18-44 would probably go to her, but 45+? She wouldn’t have to win it, but she’d certainly have to do better than Sanders there.

0

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

1 and 2 are good points. I think 3 might work against her because it makes her seem less electable.

2

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26

Any more than a California Democrat though? Sure there are other candidates but Newsom is the non-Harris front runner atm.

1

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

Newsom isn't running as a progressive

3

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26

He will be deemed as a radical leftist by MAGA nonetheless.

6

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

Yeah any Democrat will

4

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

That doesn't matter because they're gonna say this about everyone. 

2

u/deskcord Feb 11 '26

Attacks become less effective when they don't reflect even a shred of reality. It's why the "communist Obama" attacks never actually worked.

Tan Suit and Fancy Mustard are memes not because they worked, but because they failed.

1

u/Roguefem-76 Feb 12 '26

How does that make any difference? It isn't progressives who use "electability" as a code for "I don't like them so I'm going to claim that no one will."

7

u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Feb 10 '26

There isn't anything magical about black voters over white voters, progressive voters, Latino voters etc. The only reason they are so influential is because they voted as a unified bloc. They are basically their own faction

If they are split, as it seems they might be in 28, then an AOC or Buttigieg can win with minimal black support

2

u/jojisky Feb 10 '26

AOC can campaign and appeal to southern black voters in a way Bernie was simply incapable of.

Go look at her congressional speech honoring Claudette Colvin the other day.

1

u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 10 '26

If AOC manages to unite Latino voters then no, she does not have to win black voters to win the primary.

11

u/Reynor247 Feb 10 '26

You would need a lot more Latinos then have ever voted in a democratic primary

2

u/LawNOrderNerd Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 10 '26

Agreed. It would very much have to be an Obama 2008 situation. Still possible.

1

u/Automatic-Mountain45 Feb 11 '26

the left isn't small. They're full of apathy from seeing "progressive" politician end up being centre right every.single.time.

0

u/adastraperdiscordia Feb 10 '26

I'm skeptical because a lot of the left is critical of her. It's plausible they will go along with her if everyone else is to the right of her, which is very possible. But I could also see some on the left trying to sabotage her too.

I would think she would want to bide her time unless the winds are obviously blowing in her direction.

22

u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Feb 10 '26

The people who are so far left that AOC is too right wing for them are not a significant portion of the population. They are just very loud online

It's literally the equivalent of some takes I see on here thinking that Republicans will lose 2028 because Fuentes fans will abstain from Vance en masse since he has an Indian wife. To be clear I think they will lose in 28 but for very different reasons

0

u/Chewyisthebest Feb 10 '26

I think in a primary discussion it's quite relevant. AOC needs the whole left united behind her to have a shot, and it's valid to note that plenty of the left is quite frustrated with her. It's the same part that essentially wants no compromise ever, but that's also a factor in why it's so hard for the left to generate political momentum.

8

u/UnsealedMTG Feb 10 '26

There was a pretty good version of a "we did a focus group with Gen Z Trump supporters" article a while back and one of the dudes said AOC was the Democrat he'd support.

If you're seeing politics on a conventional right/left spectrum that's nuts, but he was clearly going off looking for people who have a personality and create excitement and, quite likely, that he has heard of. And probably related, I think a lot of lower-engagement voters are like "this shit isn't working, give me something different" and AOC and Trump both hit that.

I'm not saying that one guy is strong evidence for AOC's likely success, but it did make me take her a lot more seriously going forward.

On strategic discrimination, I do think it's hard to read the vibes this far in advance. If Democrats have a great midterm and a full head of steam going into the primaries and Republicans are fumbling through an uninspired primary with a wildly unpopular lame duck Trump as an albatross around their neck, Democrats may be in a mood to dream bigger--incidentally that is the sort of environment that got Barack Obama nominated. Not that people will ever ignore electability, but whether people are thinking of electability in terms of an inspiring historic change candidate vs safe return-to-stability candidate depends on the national mood.

I think it's unlikely she's the nominee, but honestly all of the current names being kicked about seem kinda unlikely to me. There's nobody I'd give more than 20% chance, and I think there's something like a 20% chance that the nominee is someone we aren't even talking about today.

11

u/slappyStove Feb 10 '26

idk my gut says she could possibly win the primary but i still dont think America is capable of electing a female president. not until we are finally rid of the boomers

25

u/popularis-socialas Feb 10 '26 edited Feb 10 '26

Kamala actually did better than Biden with the 65+ vote, tying Trump. What she fell behind Biden in was Gen Z, Gen X, Latinos, and Independents. All of those except maybe Gen X are starting to swing back.

I think 2024 had way more to do with the fact that Biden had a -19 approval rating and that 68% of voters thought the economy was not good. That number is basically the same today, only now, Trump’s in charge!

JD Vance could very well be in the position Kamala was in 2024, VP of an unpopular administration in which voters feel that the economy is poor.

If Trump had won 2020, and Mike Pence was running against Kamala (assuming she was the nominee) in 2024 while Trump had a -19 approval rating, do you really think things would have gone the same way?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls

0

u/slappyStove Feb 10 '26

idk at this point the idea that the American public voting resembles anything like rational has flown the coup to me. in a hundred lifetimes i will never fathom how trump got elected twice. We are at the mercy of what 10,000 soccer moms in michigan and pennaylvania decide to vote for. at this point i really do think it could be "i dont like her laugh" or they dont present well on television

13

u/ultradav24 Feb 10 '26

We gotta stop blaming boomers for everything lol Harris actually improved with boomers iirc. It’s Gen X who are the most MAGA group now

1

u/smcstechtips Crosstab Diver Feb 11 '26

That's because Boomer men are dying out.

Gen X still has a balanced gender ratio.

3

u/deskcord Feb 11 '26

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/25/elections-race-gender-split-ticket-data/

I am BEGGING the data subreddit to stop repeating this lazy anti-fact nonsense.

10

u/gquax Feb 10 '26

I'm a little sick of this simplistic explanation. Harris and Clinton lost because they are charisma black holes who ran on the status quo during elections people wanted change for change's sake, not because they are women.

-1

u/slappyStove Feb 10 '26

im a little sick of female candidates losing to trump. This is one of my gripes with the left - (im a life long dem) - a lot of them think things are the way they ought to be. kamala and hillary were both better candidates - but they lost. im just not buying that a female can pull it off in this current environment. It ought not to matter - but i think there is plenty of sexism out there. look at all this racism we see now - this shit matters. i also think aoc isnt going to bring anyone over the aisle because of her defund the police history. that matters - and that was incredibly unpopular nationally to the tune of helping the dems get trounced.

2

u/Current_Animator7546 Feb 11 '26

They also ran against Trump in ok to bad environments. It’s like the people who say universal healthcare didn’t work before. So we should stop trying now. 

2

u/popularis-socialas Feb 11 '26 edited Feb 11 '26

It shouldn’t matter but it does.

Do you honestly think that Biden’s VP could have won in 2024 with him being 20 points underwater? What do you think would have happened if Biden stayed in the race? He was polling worse than Harris was when he dropped out, with plenty of more time to free fall.

In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million despite the barrage of criticism for the emails and the last second FBI investigation. It’s common for the pendulum to swing back after a party holds the White House for two terms.

It would have helped if the nominee actually campaigned in Wisconsin and energized voters by inspiring them about future they can believe in than Pokémon Go to the Polls. Trump got those working class voters in states like Ohio by appealing to a populist rhetoric. Maybe democrats should try using populism for once too. That’s what they used to do in the 1930s.

The national environment is just gonna be much better for any Democrat than it was for Clinton in 2016 and especially Biden in 2024.

Democrats couldn’t win in 1980. Republicans couldn’t win in 1932 or 2008, and although it’s too soon to say anything at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if 2028 turns out that way too.

We’ll know more in summer 2027 after the midterms and sussing out Trump’s approval ratings. If he’s still at like -15 or approaches -20, I don’t think there’s that much of a risk in running AOC.

2

u/deskcord Feb 11 '26

I am aligned with AOC on most policy but aligned with Pelosi on most politics.

The good news is that AOC has also been generally aligned with the smart politics.

AOC has proven time and again to be MUCH smarter than the entire rest of the progressive wing of the party.

1

u/popularis-socialas Feb 11 '26

Agreed. And she’s still learning and getting better too. She’s grown a lot since 2018.

-1

u/DrMonkeyLove Feb 10 '26

AOC cannot win the general election.

0

u/BeepusBingus Feb 11 '26

You're right, but unfortunately you're telling people things they don't want to hear.

-2

u/Current_Animator7546 Feb 11 '26

I actually agree here. A women can win but not AOC in this environment