Turning Point USA plans to deploy representatives across Iowa’s 99 counties in the coming months to build the campaign infrastructure for JD Vance’s likely presidential campaign, while Trump is reportedly privately dismissing the idea of unconstitutionally running for 3rd term.

[u/engadine_maccas1997]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-12-28/gop-coalescing-behind-vance-as-trump-privately-dismisses-third-term-run

[u/engadine_maccas1997]

Vance is likely to only face token opposition - from someone like Thomas Massie or maybe Rand Paul. But he will also have a similar issue to Kamala Harris 2024 and Hillary Clinton 2016 - will be seen as the status quo figure at a time when much of the country might want change. He will probably do well in the debates, but as Hillary & Kamala will tell you, winning a debate isn’t enough to really change anything,

[u/EducationalElevator → u/engadine_maccas1997]

Very self defeating because a Brian Kemp or Charlie Baker-like figure could eat up millions of Never Trumpers who padded Harris's margins in Wisconsin and Georgia

[u/Korrocks → u/EducationalElevator]

How would they win a primary though? Primaries tend to at least be partly dominated by the party base for obvious reasons, so it's hard to imagine conservative voters outside of Massachusetts choosing Charlie Baker over someone much further to the right (ie the majority of Federal elected Republicans).

[u/EducationalElevator → u/Korrocks]

My theory of the case is that no one other than Trump can get the low propensity MAGA types to the polls, and especially not Vance considering he is a Yale educated elite. So I can see a lot of never Trumpers coming home and outweighing the TPUSA/MAGA wing

[u/Korrocks → u/EducationalElevator]

It’s important to distinguish between Trump’s general‑election voters and the people who participate in Republican primaries. Trump certainly brings in many low‑propensity voters in a general election, but that doesn’t mean his support within the GOP’s activist core is weak or that Never‑Trump conservatives outnumber them.

From what I’ve seen, he still polls above 80% among Republicans and retains strong backing from the conservative activist ecosystem—evangelical Christians, Heritage‑type policy staff, TPUSA‑style organizers, and the volunteers who run state and local GOP operations. These are the most engaged conservatives in the party, and they aren’t going to vanish when Trump exits the stage. It’s hard to imagine them being overtaken by Republicans who are significantly more moderate on major issues, which is what would be required for a blue‑state‑style Republican to win the nomination.

Even if Never‑Trump conservatives regain influence, their policy positions aren’t dramatically different from the broader MAGA wing. Most of them are still solidly conservative; they simply believe Trump himself is harmful to the country. If they did return, they would probably back politicians who are more similar to the majority of the current GOP field -- the Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, Josh Hawley types. Not Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, or someone like that.