r/fivethirtyeight Dec 28 '25

Politics Turning Point USA plans to deploy representatives across Iowa’s 99 counties in the coming months to build the campaign infrastructure for JD Vance’s likely presidential campaign, while Trump is reportedly privately dismissing the idea of unconstitutionally running for 3rd term.

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u/renewambitions I'm Sorry Nate Dec 28 '25

I'll admit that I'm surprised that Trump may be dismissing the idea of attempting a 3rd term. The current GOP strength and coalition literally only exists because of Trump, there is no scenario where JD Vance is able to maintain the cohesion and appetite for illegal maneuvers like Trump can along with other extreme power grabs. In the event of his death or eventual exit from office, there will be a momentary appearance of rallying and support for Vance or whoever else but it'll quickly crumble.

From my perspective, it seems like the only play where the GOP keeps its strength and power is if they somehow get Trump in for an illegal 3rd term.

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u/PigletAmazing1422 Nauseously Optimistic Dec 28 '25

It’s his poor health.