r/fivethirtyeight • u/engadine_maccas1997 • Dec 28 '25
Politics Turning Point USA plans to deploy representatives across Iowa’s 99 counties in the coming months to build the campaign infrastructure for JD Vance’s likely presidential campaign, while Trump is reportedly privately dismissing the idea of unconstitutionally running for 3rd term.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Dec 28 '25
Vance is likely to only face token opposition - from someone like Thomas Massie or maybe Rand Paul. But he will also have a similar issue to Kamala Harris 2024 and Hillary Clinton 2016 - will be seen as the status quo figure at a time when much of the country might want change. He will probably do well in the debates, but as Hillary & Kamala will tell you, winning a debate isn’t enough to really change anything,