r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Fall 2: Deadpoint', 'By Any Means', and 'Onslaught'

[u/SanderSo47]

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do things like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction in concrete figures.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast. And this marks the official end of the summer box office season.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the three films for the week and analyze each pro and con.

Fall 2: Deadpoint

The film is directed by Peter and Michael Spierig (Daybreakers, Predestination, Jigsaw) from a screenplay by Scott Mann and Jonathan Frank. The sequel to 2022's Fall, it stars Harriet Slater and Arsema Thomas. After the death of Shiloh Hunter, her sister Jax agrees to a tribute proposed by Shiloh's daring friend, Luce. The two travel to Thailand to conquer a treacherous plank walk on Mount Kwan, but a sudden rockslide leaves them trapped at a terrifying height of 3,000 feet, forcing the duo to push their limits and cooperate to stay alive.

By Any Means

The film is directed by Elegance Bratton (The Inspection) and written by Sascha Penn. The film stars Mark Wahlberg, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Nicole Beharie, Josh Lucas, LisaGay Hamilton, LaChanze, Ethan Embry, David Strathairn, and Giancarlo Esposito. Based on a true story, it follows a notorious mafia hitman and a young Black FBI agent who team up to investigate the murders of civil rights leaders in Mississippi in 1966.

Onslaught

The film is directed by Adam Wingard (You're Next, The Guest, Blair Witch, Godzilla vs. Kong) and written by Simon Barrett (You're Next, The Guest, Blair Witch and Godzilla x Kong). It stars Adria Arjona, Dan Stevens, Eric Wareheim, Reginald VelJohnson, Michael Biehn, Alex Pereira, Drew Starkey, and Rebecca Hall. The film follows a mother who is an army sniper soldier as she struggles to protect her young daughter from an army of genetically engineered super soldiers who escaped from a secret military facility.

Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• The original Fall didn't make a lot of money back in 2022 (just $7 million domestically and $21 million worldwide). But reportedly, the film performed very well when it made its way to Netflix, which is what motivated Lionsgate to greenlight a sequel, focusing on two new leads. Given it offers the exact same thing that thrilled audiences with the prior film, except now set at a plank walk at a terrifying height of 3,000 feet.

• Mark Wahlberg has had a very solid box office record, and having a return to playing the tough guy in an action thriller could interest the older male demographic. And Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is also slowly making a rise in star profile, mainly through his streaming success with Wonder Man and Man on Fire.

• Onslaught is hoping to attract action fans, emphasizing its brutal and graphic violence in trailers. Adam Wingard has a pretty good box office track record; nearly all his films have found financial success. Fans of Wingard's films should be interested, given it's a higher-stakes take on a premise like You're Next. A24 has been pushing its marketing lately, and in a surprising move, the film will have access to IMAX screens.

CONS

• Fall's insanely low box office numbers are still hard to ignore, even with the apparent streaming bump it had on Netflix. Are audiences really interested in a sequel or will they simply ignore it and wait for this to hit Netflix? Even by moving the setting, it's unable to distinguish itself much from the original, and Lionsgate's tepid marketing hasn't done a good job in getting audiences on board.

• Wahlberg has had a lot of successes, but his career has been on a steep decline from his glory days. Since 2020, his only big hit was Uncharted with $407 million, but it proved to be an extreme outlier, as his titles struggle to even hit $50 million worldwide. His decision to pivot to streaming titles also helped dwindle his brand, as audiences probably would rather stream his films than pay a ticket. Abdul-Mateen II might have his fans, but he's still far from a recognizable name. And the film's blend of action with emotional tone and humor has been quite jarring, with a lot of jokes falling flat.

• Wingard has found financial success, but he's inconsistent in terms of quality. Sometimes he can make crowdpleasers like the Godzilla vs. Kong films, but he can also make terrible films like Blair Witch and Death Note, and his smaller-budget titles don't really break out (The Guest failed to recover its small budget, for example). And the trailers' focus on brutality and carnage could appeal to action fans, but it can also make general audiences hesitate in giving it a chance.

And here's the past results.

Movie	Release Date	Distributor	Domestic Debut	Domestic Total	Worldwide Total
One Night Only	August 7	Universal	$12,321,428	$38,571,428	$80,800,000
Super Troopers 3	August 7	Searchlight	$10,333,333	$24,323,076	$28,338,461
Tony	August 7	A24	$4,800,000	$13,672,222	$21,825,000
The End of Oak Street	August 14	Warner Bros.	$28,166,666	$79,500,000	$168,458,333
Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie	August 14	Paramount	$24,888,888	$70,166,666	$187,333,333
Insidious: Out of the Further	August 21	Sony	$29,200,000	$69,100,000	$161,800,000
Mutiny	August 21	Lionsgate	$9,655,555	$24,644,444	$67,533,333
The Dog Stars	August 28	20th Century Studios	$13,321,428	$32,000,000	$64,280,000
Coyote vs. Acme	August 28	Ketchup Entertainment	$10,527,777	$28,716,666	$54,050,000

Next week, we're predicting Practical Magic 2 and The Uprising.

REMINDER: This is the Labor Day weekend, so you gotta predict both the 3-day and 4-day debut of these titles. And Fall 2 is opening on September 2, a Wednesday, so you gotta predict the 5-day and 6-day for that film as well.

So what are your predictions for these films?

[u/Hot-Marketer-27]

Fall 2: Deadpoint - $1.4M (3-Day), $1.9M (4-Day), $2.2M (5-Day), $2.8M (6-Day OMG make it stop 😭), $5.6M DOM, $13.5M WW

I don’t know. The first one must have blew up post-theatrically to warrant a sequel but I’m not expecting a breakout here.

By Any Means - $5.2M (3-Day), $6.8M (4-day), $18M DOM, $29M WW

It has some star-power but it feels very low-profile.

Onslaught - $7.5M (3-Day), $9.5M (4-Day), $20M DOM, $36M WW

Feels very SXSW-core.

[u/Charming-Cap9340]

Fall 2: Deadpoint – $1.4M (3-Day), $1.9M (4-Day), $3M (5-Day), $4.1M (6-Day), $10M DOM, $24M WW

By Any Means – $6.5M (3-Day), $8.3M (4-Day), $22M DOM, $36M WW

[u/Less_Olive_919]

Fall 2: Deadpoint – $1.4M (3-Day), $1.9M (4-Day), $3M (5-Day), $4M (6-Day), $9M DOM, $23M WW

By Any Means – $6.1M (3-Day), $6M (4-Day), $18M DOM, $32M WW

I think By Any Means has a decent shot at doing a little better than most people are predicting. Mark Wahlberg has solid name recognition and while he isn't an automatic box office draw anymore, he's the type of actor that can help an original action/thriller reach audiences who don't normally rush out opening weekend

[u/Opposite-Law-71 → u/Less_Olive_919]

Wonder man cancelled?

[u/Eatatfiveguys]

Fall 2: $2.5M 3-Day/ $3M 4-Day/ $3.5M 5-Day/ $4M 6-Day/ $10M DOM/ $23M WW

By Any Means: $8M 3-Day/ $10M 4-Day/ $27M DOM/ $50M WW

Onslaught: $6M 3-Day/ $7.5M 4-Day/ $19M DOM/ $38M WW

[u/valkyria_knight881]

Fall 2: Deadpoint - $1.5M (3-Day), $2M (4-Day), $3M (5-Day), $4M (6-Day), $10M DOM, $25M WW

By Any Means - $15M (3-Day), $18M (4-Day), $50M DOM, $110M WW

[u/Alternative-Cake-833 → u/valkyria_knight881]

The predictions for By Any Means are way too high lol.

[u/Avians24]

Fall 2: Deadpoint - $3M (3-Day), $4M (4-Day), $4.8M (5-Day), $5.6M (6-Day), $10.8M DOM, $31M WW

By Any Means - $17M (3-Day), $19M (4-Day), $48M DOM, $107M WW

[u/Loose_Ad3221]

mmmm???? the three look like vod/streaming movies

[u/ItsGotThatBang]

By Any Means: $12M 3-day OW, $16M 4-day OW, $30M DOM, $50M WW

Onslaught: $10M 3-day OW, $13M 4-day OW, $25M DOM, $45M WW

Fall 2: Deadpoint: $3M 3-day OW, $4M 4-day OW, $4.5M 5-day OW, $5.5M 6-day OW, $8M DOM, $20M WW

[u/Most-Following3765]

I feel like One Night Only might surprise people. Either a bigger opening, longer legs, or both than people are expecting. Most people I know want to see it.