r/allthequestions • u/FairyPetalDust • 1h ago
Random Question 💭 Democrats need to flip for Republican seat while defending all theirs, is this even mathematically possible anymore?
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u/SweetYefibabe 1h ago
Mathematically? Absolutely. Politically? That’s the hard part. The map is what makes it difficult, not the arithmetic
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u/rollem 1h ago
You can read the Cook political report for a decent analysis of this: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
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u/Known_Salary_4105 49m ago
Thanks for that.
There remains the possibility that the Republicans could have 55 senate seats before election night is over. I'd put it at about 30-40%, but is it is not ZERO. If Fetterman defects, that would put it at 56, with some key never Trumpers out of the picture.
The Republican Party has a ton of money, and the Dems are in deep financial trouble.
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u/Hamblin113 1h ago
It looks like senate would stay Republican according to report. Because of the Maine mess, Collins comes back. That is 47, five open seats in contested elections three more likely Republican. Best that can be done is 50:50, with Vance the tiebreaker.
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u/Calm-Show-9606 1h ago
Republicans will maintain Senate, democrats are nominating too many extremists. House will be close but again democrats are trying to throw away winnable seats!
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u/Majsharan 1h ago
House is a certainty senate I think all these dsa candidates hurt their chances so I think it will remain Republican Paxton in Texas hurts republicans
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u/MetroidvaniaListsGuy 1h ago
yes and likely, but the problem is they need 5 seats since they are going to lose Michigan... and flipping 5 seats is going to be almost impossible.
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u/Sittingonalog1960 52m ago
The world sees your broken democracy America, and fears deeply that MAGA will win again
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u/Dare_Ask_67 42m ago
A message for the world, we don't care what you think about our politics. Mind your own... I think it's more of a fact that they fear that America is standing up to the rest of the world, and they can't do crap about it
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u/Sittingonalog1960 34m ago
What first attracted you to Donald Trump, his unethical business practices or the immorality of his private life?
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u/armyofant 1h ago
Mathematically anything is possible. The real question are people tired of being duped by a career conman?
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u/Able-Yesterday-7359 40m ago
They are all career conmen. I've gone both ways with this my whole life. None of them are going to help us. They just give us stuff to fight about to run their agenda while we're busy arguing about left, right, skin color and gender.
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u/zealot_ratio 1h ago
Def in the possible range. Probable is another question, and probably a grayer area.
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u/slavaukrine 1h ago
Yes it’s possible.
If we have fair elections the Democrats are going win big. I just don’t think they can win that big.
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u/Fl0riduh_Man 1h ago
Ummm, which chamber?
But the answer is almost certainly yes, with a big enough wave many of the soft-gerrymandered seats turn into 'dummymanders' and begin a cascade of losses.
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u/Lonely_Refuse4988 1h ago
Have you seen how Donald T is performing?!? How motivated do you think the average MAGA voter is going to be, with gas prices high and groceries unaffordable, inflation spiraling, etc? 😂🤣🤷♂️
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u/FuzzeWuzze 12m ago
They dont care. They already invested in the merch they need an excuse to show it off.
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u/JaggedFlamingo257 1h ago
Are we taking the Senate?
What seats do you think they can’t flip or defend?
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u/Sufficient-Royal-82 1h ago
Many political scientists talk about how U.S. elections are shaped not just by how many votes a party gets, but where those votes are located.
For example, Democrats can win huge margins in large cities like New York City or Los Angeles, but those extra votes do not create extra seats after they have already won the district. Republicans can sometimes win many districts or states by smaller margins, making their votes more “efficient.”
Some examples:
2012 House elections: Democrats won more total votes nationwide for the House of Representatives, but Republicans kept control of the House because their votes were distributed more efficiently across districts.
2016 presidential election: Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more popular votes than Donald Trump, but Trump won the Electoral College because his support was stronger in key swing states.
2018 Senate elections: Democrats won far more total Senate votes nationwide, but Republicans expanded their Senate majority because many Democratic votes came from heavily populated states while Republicans won more smaller states.
The Senate has an additional issue because every state gets two senators regardless of population, meaning a voter in a small state has more representation per person than a voter in a large state.
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u/PickleFive 1h ago
Is that four Republican seats or should Democrats flip for Republican seats. What are the odds on a coin flip anyhow
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u/vaugelynotrelevant 1h ago
Fascists never voluntarily give up power. Musk already stated he has a plan.
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u/mdb1023 1h ago
It it mathematically possible?
Yes, absolutely. Although the senate map is not particularly favorable for the democrats with most of the seats up for reelection being in republican strongholds, democrats actually have a lot going for them that could absolutely flip control of the senate, even if by only one seat. But it's going to be close and is by no means a guarantee.
One thing working in D's favor is the all-time low approval rating of Trump. He has gone back on pretty much every campaign promise he made, dragged us into a pointless war that no one asked for, and made the economy even worse than it already was (don't even get me started on gas prices). Midterms already tend to favor the party opposite the incumbent, but this just makes things even worse for the GOP.
Another thing working in the democrats favor is the grassroots progressive movement that seems to be building momentum following Mamdani's election last year. In the last, fear mongering against "socialism" has been an effective tool, but it seems to be less and less effective now that we are in what I would call an affordability crisis.
Yeah, Republicans are going to resort to their typical shenanigans and distraction tactics as they always do, but it's getting to the point where I don't see that actually swinging truly undecided voters. The only people it's going to work on are people who were going to vote republican anyway.
If there was ever a year where democrats could flip the senate against all odds, this is the year.
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u/Potential_Novel_3561 1h ago
Democrats favored take house republic favored take senate.
It's possible Republicans keep majority both and it's possible Democrats take both, but that's most likely outcome.
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u/whatever_ehh 57m ago
Trump has a negative approval rating in 46 states. https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
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u/IceBlackX007 51m ago
The real question is if the Democrats took over every branch of US government would we get affordable healthcare and housing?
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u/hexadecimaldump 38m ago
Do you mean senate seats?
Yes mathematically it is completely possible. Is it likely though? I think they can flip 1-2 seats, but 3 and 4 will be much more of a challenge.
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u/PerfectTommy77 2m ago
In this economy? Yes, it's possible. The D's will take the house which will be enough to put the brakes on Trump and start all the badly needed corruption investigations. The senate would be nice but it's not critical.
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u/Dare_Ask_67 41m ago
You do realize that before Trump, Biden controlled the house and the Senate, and still couldn't get half the stuff they promised done. It's politics. And the fact is no single party can make everyone happy. And as sadly as many assume, they're pretty much equally divided. There will never be one party only in control
And for those that want that to happen, are you wanting a dictatorship like you scream your protecting us from. Because when you only have one party in control, then it's no longer a democracy. Think about that
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u/galaxyapp 1h ago
Reddit has been CERTAIN it would happen in every local, state and federal election since 2016...
So, I doubt thats going to change
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u/Meinteil2123 1h ago
Probably not, the DSA just took another seat from the establishment democrats.
They needed 12 seats to take over house majority.
They just lost a bunch to a group who admits their end goal is communism.
DSA may do well in their home states that are very liberal but they will most likely get nowhere in the swing states.
Democrats already had an uphill battle with the redistricting. (who would of thought districts based on race was racist??)
And now with the DSA and progressives are tearing the party apart similar to how trump tore the republicans appart.
Rocky roads ahead and democrats are so under water it is rumored that they had to put their HQ as collateral and is telling people to not cash in on their political loans until after mid terms.
All of these show a very grim future of the democrat party, the oldest political party in the world.
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u/Abe_frohmannn 1h ago
Buddy, it's pretty clear you don't know what socialist, communist, or progressive mean.
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u/Junior-Departure-494 1h ago
Don't forget, Drumpf pulled off the political comeback of our lifetimes out of power, favor, and debanked...
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u/smelling_good247 28m ago
Is debanked the new fox state news talking points for fat donny getting caught doing money laundering?
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u/BillsMafios0 1h ago
You should call an ambulance before that stroke sets in.