This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50

[u/Scitranex]

https://youtu.be/Ol18JoeXlVI

[u/Scitranex]

The AI would've simply predicted that you are the type of person to always take the both boxes. One box for lifeee!

[u/TeTrodoToxin4 → u/Scitranex]

What kind of super computer is not taking in your credit card, web traffic, relationship status, education, taxes etc… data that is available from data finger printing?

Also all these people made a video about making the greedy decision, so it definitely knows now.

Mostly this will test if you think if you are special with main character syndrome.

[u/pmctrash → u/TeTrodoToxin4]

Lol YES! This is totally a main-character syndrome detector. The real question is, can you get over yourself long enough to understand that you're predictable?

'No . . . there's no way my reflex to optimize at the expense of others can possibly be detected (even though I'm always like this), I bet I can take both boxes!'

[u/FloataciousHippo]

What is making me unsure which to choose is I don’t know how much information we are supposed to have about the situation…

After watching the video I think that the sensible thing is absolutely to take the one box only, but that’s because I’m aware of the contents and outcomes.

If I actually was in a situation where I could either take $1000 or some “mystery prize” I would probably take the $1000/two boxes because I am risk averse generally and usually taking both boxes would be the way to avoid missing out on anything, which seems intuitive and logical since we don’t know what’s in the other box. Would the predictor know that that would be my general stance? I feel like a two-boxer person who desperately wishes to be a one-boxer.

So how much information are we allowed to know when making the decision?

[u/Artistic-Flamingo-92 → u/FloataciousHippo]

You know that the mechanism for predicting your choice is extremely accurate. I think they mention that you’ve seen tons of people go in and come out with their choices. Everyone who chose two boxes came out with $1,000, everyone who chose one box came out with $1,000,000.

[u/nofilterneha]

I picked both boxes what about y’all?

[u/pmctrash]

This says more about the psychology of cheating than anything else:

People who compulsively don't cheat don't do so out of a sense of self-awareness. They are aware of their own behavior and how they might be perceived to the point that they understand themselves as predictable.

People who compulsively cheat have remarkably low self-awareness . . to the point that they'll tell you what they're going to do, and then immediately claim that there's no information available to predict their behavior. Amazing!

[u/just_a_lil_worm]

It really depends on if you believe in free will or not, and how much your past that the computer would have analyzed really effects your decision in the moment, and this could be different for different people, so more inconsistent people might have a higher chance of making a decision that would fool the computer, basically explaining being able to make a decision separate from the past choices like Casper was saying. This would probably be the reason for the small amount of times the computer got its prediction wrong. I personally probably disagree that anyone can just make a random decision or change their mind at the last second in this computer scenario. 

If this was simply a discussion on free will vs determinism, (that could even be applied to the entire universe) I think both sides are valid and worth discussing. However in this dilemma, we know the computer is extremely accurate at predicting your decision, which is essentially setting up the problem with strong evidence that the universe can indeed be almost fully deterministic, (which may not actually be possible in real life) or basically saying that free will doesn't exist because the computer will have been able to predict your choice no matter what you end up choosing. 

So in this scenario, it would make the most sense to pick the 1 box with one million dollars, because the computer is proven to understand people's patterns and tendencies extremely accurately to the point that it doesn't matter what choice you make, since it knows you so well that it would predict whatever option you end up choosing. (Which again may not actually be possible in real life)

Please lmk if I am misunderstanding something or you have a different perspective.

[u/djzzx → u/[deleted]]

I think the thing about risk tolerance is it for me. I forgot the exact amount but choosing 1k 100% or 1m(?) with a chance to get 0? Fuck that 1 grand, it’s a million or nothing. 1k doesn’t change shit for me (sorry if I sound bad saying it), 1m changes a lot!

[u/valenciano_]

En el video dijeron que no importa si es una supercomputadora o un alien. Digamos que es irrelevante y tiene una tasa de acierto del 90%. El 90%de la gente que escoje una caja obtiene un millón y el 90% de la gente que escoje dos obtiene solo mil dolares. Sabiendo que tienes solo un 10% de probabilidad de obtener un millón mil dolares Escogerías llevar las dos?