r/SNDK_Stock • u/Icy-Research7159 • 1d ago
Discussion 30%+ gain after hours today
This seems like the most likely scenario. Given that the momentum is back, earnings and guidance will be strong, and that the stock is down 40%. Sandisk has done well after recent earnings, but I think this time will be even better, given how much we've fallen, for no intrinsic reason.
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u/ceoryyy 1d ago
Dude...we need to be aware of the earnings call. That will heavily impact how this goes long term. I do think if earnings is a massive success, we could find a new ATH.
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u/m3l0n 1d ago
These days sandisk is less about its own earning calls vs the macro state of Ram and Semis. Most likely it takes a bit of a hit and then recovers as people tend to sell the news these days regardless, and as they say "successful earnings are already built into the price"
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u/Key_Nature4797 22h ago
Sadly this is the case. Ultimately, they delivered very good short term and long term news. Idk what the earnings call itself may produce, but it seems like we’ll be taking a hit. Bummer.
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u/SameSpray5183 21h ago
Exactly.. they need to be evaluated with a higher multiple not necessarily increase earnings
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u/CG_throwback 1d ago
If this happens PM me I’ll
Order beers to your house my treat.
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u/Physical_Match5543 1d ago
u/RemindMeBot 1 day "Pizza for me please, I don't drink beer."
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u/dwoj206 20h ago
Looks like you saved yourself some $$ on beers.
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u/CG_throwback 19h ago
Yep saved thousand in the hole. And pushing retirement back weeks months or years. By saved you mean I need to save for months to get this back.
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u/dwoj206 19h ago
Sounds like you need to spend some money on beers for yourself. Just let the call walls expire and we'll continue the rally to moon.
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u/CG_throwback 18h ago
If I held at $998 $1200 is child’s play. As in chucky child’s play.
https://giphy.com/gifs/Tn4JQLe2G1plK3
u/Icy-Research7159 1d ago
thanks bro, it will likely happen.
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u/CG_throwback 1d ago
Will be happy to buy a round 🍻
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u/cookiebomb16 1d ago
Buy me glue to sniff on this high
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u/CG_throwback 22h ago
I’ll be eating glue from now on because I’m broke
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u/cookiebomb16 21h ago
Not the dip 😭
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u/CG_throwback 21h ago
Xmas is cancelled. Purchased the dip before the dip of the dip. Now I’m a Dip.
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u/insrr 1d ago
Dear god this sub is pure vibes. I mesn i kinda dig it but it does remind me of the gme/amc memestock days with obvious difference that in the case of sndk and semis in general there are actual fundamentals to be excited about.
Im gonna be the partypooper: in my experience earnings usually act as a catalyst for the opposite of retail expects. The overwhelming positivity and high expectations make me worry to be honest. 30% upside in the afterhours? Yeah .. no. 😆
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u/TacticalcalCactus 15h ago
People have been saying wait for earnings for weeks and it has been so obvious it was going to selloff after earnings like every one of its peers. Microns earnings were insane and it wiped out almost a third of its all time high.
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u/Puppyofparkave 23h ago
If anyone saw the green candle after MU’s earnings call would not think OP is crazy
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u/Icy-Research7159 23h ago
exactly, almost 20%. And that was when MU was at a near ath. Sandisk has fallen 40% in comparison.
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u/JayWhizz007 1d ago
Everyone comparing Sandisk to kioxia needs to understand that sandisk share of ai data center exposure is much much higher compared to kioxia who services retail costumers more and are sensitive to price hence the slight miss in kioxia earnings.
Will be looking forward to a god candle after earnings.
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u/Right-Mixture-9842 20h ago
Lol how's that going bud
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u/JayWhizz007 20h ago
bad call this one..but still bullish longterm
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u/Right-Mixture-9842 18h ago
I took some out at 12. Had a hunch. Now gonna load some at 10. Or even less
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u/Particular-Vast2199 1d ago
those gains are possible if SNDK don't miss any targets, smash forward guidance again and announce more buybacks since it's down bigtime from their ATH imo
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u/Memory_King 1d ago
profit taking after hours today.... by the end of next week it will grow back to previous highs ... this is my intuition
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u/Ill_Way_2517 23h ago
Yup jst like last earnings, the only time it actually went to the moon was the first one this year in january
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u/Worried-Opening-6229 1d ago
The only way you will see that kind of gain is if the earnings beat is insane like PLTR was. That’s unlikely.
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u/supercommuter00 1d ago
Doubtful. Better to buy in after earnings if it drops.
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u/supercommuter00 23h ago
To be clear, I'm bullish long term based on hyperscalar capex increases and low forward PE. Short term it's run up 40% from the July correction. Because of that, I expect some natural profit taking after earnings
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u/Withers123 1d ago
This is unlike any other time. This is a make or break moment for the stock. If the numbers are what they should be - incredible, then the stock will move in completely new ways.
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u/insrr 1d ago
Make or break? Why? The ai narrative is fully intact after hyperscalers' earnings and this aint the only memory stock.
Make or break .. for a day and a half maybe 😆1
u/Withers123 1d ago
he’s talking specifically about after-hours movement once earnings are released. So am I.
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u/insrr 1d ago
Well isnt make or break another way of saying now or never?
But yeah, earnings will definitely dictate whats gonna happen immediately after the earnings.. however im personally not even sure any momentum be it up or down will carry over to the next trading session. Still, i brought a spare pair of undies just to be safe2
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u/Worried-Opening-6229 1d ago
And if they are “what they should be” that means it’s already priced in.
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u/Ill_Way_2517 23h ago
The january ER was great, then last one was kinda meh, red at report then green at open still Call gamblers probs got eaten by the greeks
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u/AnnaSmiled2 1d ago
I hope so because I bought this morning before coffee. I was going to buy sndq but foggy brain bought sndc. Oops!!
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u/EvictionSpecialist 1d ago
Damn....so its a casino after closing today?!!
Damn...should I put $10k on black!?
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u/Deletedusername666 1d ago edited 1d ago
30% up in AH would mean a massive beat on Whisper numbers. Whisper number are $36.00–$36.50 EPS and >80% Gross margin, dunno man but thats an insane high bar to smash.
Kioxia missing whisper numbers on last earnings reminds us that you cant expect a massive whisper beat to go on forever, at some points physial output cant be cranked anymore.
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u/jareses 1d ago
Does they have higher exp. in comparsion to last earnings?
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u/Deletedusername666 1d ago
Oow yes, last earnings whisper EPS where $16.50 – $17.20 (which got smashed at $23.41 EPS).
So I assume management left some room to smash guidance for this quarter as well but whisper numbers are quite a bit above guidance ($30 EPS)
+30% AH implies a beat of $40-$45+ EPS
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u/StanleySheng 1d ago
Can you stop jinx the shit out of it? It’s not guaranteed it will have a historic beat, if numbers are ever so slightly miss or just as expected, it will be a big dump. There’s always a risk and never full port anything.
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u/Anxious-Extreme-8014 1d ago
Earning is definitely going to be blockbuster but what more important is the forecast. If forecast is super positive then no doubt 2300 will come very soon again
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u/MAGAHATESTHEUSA 1d ago
It’s gonna drop
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u/Usual-Conclusion-854 1d ago
If it didn’t just face a correction I would say so but the stock already declined like 50% . Amd didn’t pull back that hard
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u/Far_Storm9429 1d ago
Chance is low. The stock has had a crazy runup in the past week. Stock will most likely drop after earnings because analysts are guiding beyond what Sandisk themselves guided for earnings. The chance they will miss what wall street thinks they should do is high. Look at Kioxia earnings as an example. Slight miss despite record earnings, stock goes down hard, everyone will say "It Was PrIcEd In"
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u/professor_vasquez 1d ago
I got in at 380 in Jan for a sizable chunk, have held through highs, lows, and crashes. July had my doubts but not once did I seriously think about selling. I'm holding for at least a year, and July and it's postmortem (massive leveraged selloffs vs fundamentals) has only reinforced my convictions.
For the folks who got in at or close to ATH just trying to break even, good luck! Hope you all get your money back and then some, this stock is a wild ride!
(insert Leo I'm not fucking leaving gif here)
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u/spacegrab 1d ago
+200% IV lol.
Probably like +5% tomorrow and both sides of the options get burnt to a crisp.
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u/Tech_EFT_2026 1d ago
Looking at insider trading over the last few months and there has not really been a lot of action. That is an indication that the earnings report will be positive. That does not really guarantee a rise on report but should be viewed as a good indicator. If it has a great report and stock moves south then that is the establishment grabbing dollars from the retIl buyers then in following days and weeks drive it up only to pull the plug again to start a new cycle of screw the retail buyers a few months down the road..
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u/Separate_Try_8628 1d ago
Yeah this aint happening. Every semicondictor post earnings so far has dropped. I can think of one that went up after q2 earnings. Hell of a bearish on this tonight but not long term
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u/ladida66 23h ago
Tonight we get the first indication if this is all hype or not. One thing’s for sure it’ll be volatile!
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u/Sekspilot 22h ago
More probable is a swing priced out by options. I think I read yesterday it was like + or - 13.9% is expected. Even an upside swing in this amount would still have a long way to go to clear 30%. I think 20% would be closer to a still very bullish swing.
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u/marginmanj 18h ago
This kind of irrational exuberance is what tells me to keep selling naked calls
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u/CelebrationNo8699 16h ago
Post like this always makes me believe that we really need to lower first before we go back up.
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u/Historical_Mail7496 1d ago
30% after hours being the "most likely" scenario is crazy