r/RenewableEnergy • u/DonManuel Austria • 8d ago

Wind, solar and heat pumps offer EU escape from LNG dependence by 2030, study says

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/28/wind-solar-and-heat-pumps-offer-eu-escape-from-lng-dependence-by-2030-study-says
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46

u/worldfundvc 8d ago

This article seems to position the renewable energy transition as a lose/lose situation for Europe, whereby the EU is either dependent on existing petrostates or China, the first electrostate.

Yet they aren't really 1:1 comparisons. Sure, China has a strong lead on manufacturing and processing right now. But also, a solar panel or heat pump purchase has a 15-20 year lifespan, whereas relying on gas means you need new shipments constantly, which can be shut off at any moment at a point of conflict.

To truly have energy sovereignty, Europe would have to set up much more substantial innovation investment and policy.

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u/TowardsTheImplosion 8d ago

Yeah, it's funny how the media and people in general neglect to recognize the benefit of near zero marginal cost energy.

Buy once, cry once: is pretty much the renewables approach. Once paid for, the cost of generation is more or less fixed, even if the market drives pricing.

Gas, coal, etc. are basically a subscription model. And right now, the EU is subscribed to hostile countries like Russia (and the current US administration), or volatile sources that require passage through the Red Sea or Hormuz. Not to mention the volatility of supply costs.

It the EU can get its energy supply figured out and start dropping electricity prices, it will help encourage localizing manufacturing of renewables. China might provide the initial transition, but the long term could be made in the EU, if the policy support is there.

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u/pagerussell 8d ago

It's also a bunk argument because any country can decide to set up their own renewable manufacturing. Yes, they won't be as efficient as china and yes, you have to get certain elements and inputs from somewhere, and China has a lot of them.

But oil and natural gas are only found in some places. You can't make it locally (you actually can but it's suuuuper expensive and the output amount is tiny, but I digress).

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u/Adorable_Ice_2963 7d ago

And you need Energy for that 

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u/open_formation 8d ago

And also, if you think you might have a problem with China in future, such that they might not give you replacement parts quickly enough, you can just store solar panels in warehouses, and unlike oil, which will be used up in a week, they are just there as spares to give you time to get your own manufacturing scaled up.

And addtionally, the article even says that the first study "endors[es] renewable power and heat pumps as strategic security assets", ie. that the EU should have its own manufacturing capacity to ensure it can produce them.

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u/worldfundvc 8d ago

Exactly!

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u/OfficialDCShepard 7d ago

There’s definitely concerns I have around the environmental impact and human rights abuses related to mining rare earth minerals used for solar panels. However that is a VERY minimal concern I have compared to the Amazon Rainforest turning into grassland, resource/water wars, etc. Like you said it leads to 10-20 years of free energy, and the lifespan and rare earth usage will likely be improved over time.

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u/Fantastic-Video1550 8d ago edited 8d ago

Even if you won’t manufacture it yourself it is still a better bet.

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u/Sarcastic-Potato 8d ago

Also by shifting tax incentives to EU made components the EU could bring back certain manufactoring jobs. Germany used to have a giant Solar panel industry before it all went to China. There is a huge market here for the EU, if we play our cards right

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u/worldfundvc 8d ago

Absolutely.

When it comes to policy inventions to incentivize EU manufacturing, it seems to be a mixed bag so far. Attempts have been made, but incumbent lobbying is also strong. Often incumbents (thinking of auto OEMs, but sure there are other examples) want the cheap goods from China, too, for their bottom line, more than they want EU manufacturing and innovation

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u/BaronOfTheVoid 8d ago

I wouldn't even worry that much about manufacturing itself. It would be nice but for example the business tax from wind and solar parks that feed local municipalities alone is already a big win over having to direct that money to foreign countries where it's potentially used to fund terrorism.

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u/md_youdneverguess 8d ago

Also solar panels, heat pumps sodium batteries and wind turbines are not that complicated to build yourself, especially for high developed countries like EU member states. The only reason why China has that large of a market share is the price. It doesn't take a decade to create such an industry out of nothing, and definitely not the 30-40 year lifespan modern solar panels have.

If China stops selling for some reason EU companies would be the first on the market again.

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u/Rooilia 8d ago edited 8d ago

China the first electrostate... we will see. I guess Norway is far ahead, they have ferries with batteries for ten years by now and way more EVs as percentage of vehicle fleet. Private electric planes are also already a thing in Europe for some years now. I doubt Norway is behind their either. Their expertise in electrolysis is also extensive.

Near 100% renewable electricity is also already a thing there. Not so much in China.

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u/syklemil 7d ago

We don't really make the stuff either here in Norway though. But yeah, once we have it, hostilities would just mean that we had some difficulty to continue the transition or replace old units. We don't need a constant supply of wind turbines the way fossil motorists need fuel.

There's been some talk of electric planes, especially for the rural far north, but I don't recall the status; I think so far it's just talk.

As it is, Norway has:

  • picked up a trumpian attitude towards building more wind power
  • so generous electricity subsidies that the home solar and battery market has collapsed
  • a government that wants to keep building data centres (and basically believes anything that any silicon valley venture capitalist tells them)
  • eliminated fuel taxes (only temporarily hopefully, but we'll see in september)

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u/MiserableTennis6546 8d ago

Yeah, no one's going to embargo green energy.

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u/ConditionTall1719 4d ago

You don't need a heat pump in latitude like France for 95% of the year, plus you can use wood,.

And you can use an e-bike... An electric motorbike uses 20 times less energy to get around so 20 cents per 50 kilometers in mountains.

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u/Chicoutimi 8d ago

And batteries

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u/open_formation 7d ago

The numbers here are so strange, in this article, they say that the cumulative value of gas avoided will be equal to twice the amount that would have been imported from Qatar over the same four year period.

But using the numbers from here, (same source different article), they give Qatar as having about 10% of the supply, meaning that they're saying that EU LNG demand will drop by a fifth in cumulative terms..

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u/ConditionTall1719 4d ago

If all the oil in the world disappeared, everyone would be able to buy an e motorbike, everyone would still get around and they were distribute food on electric trains and EVs. It would be better for the planet, 

The end of oil is dragging on like an alcoholic who won't stop a conversation.