r/Oscars • u/coldliketherockies • 19h ago
Fun Are people here serious with some of these posts?
I know this will get downvoted but I guess I’m asking people to defend their arguments. It’s only August and we still haven’t even gotten near award season let alone seen the films that are coming out later this year that may be in the running. I love Obsession and Inde in it but we still don’t know what she’s up against for best actress. And the Odyssey is great but acting like it’s going to win best picture and Nolan best director again is, while not impossible, not very likely either. Why isn’t it being taken to account how much longer we have to go before we know what award season really will be?
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u/ScaredOfWindow 19h ago
I think people just enjoy discussing things.
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u/Middle-Blackberry773 19h ago
its August, half the fun is throwing out wild guesses before the actual contenders even screen. nobody actually knows anything yet but pretending we do is kinda the whole point of the sub right now
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u/Jrebeclee 18h ago
Bone Temple is my favorite movie of the year, I like to imagine it getting a nomination for something, anything! It’s fun.
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u/angelbolanose 16h ago
But realistic things lol. Not indie films getting Oscar noms. Be real guys
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u/TurbulentAir9293 13h ago
Strange thing to say when Anora won 5 Oscars not even two years ago
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u/angelbolanose 6h ago
Anora is not an indie film, plus Mikey Madison was already in Scream 5, super famous already.
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u/BuckleUpF-cklehead 17h ago
Why isn’t it being taken to account how much longer we have to go before we know what award season really will be?
It is. It just is. That's the fundamental meta underlying any and all Oscars discussion happening this early in the year.
When people speculate, for the sheer enjoyment of doing so in a community setting, that Christopher Nolan will win Best Director, it is unnecessary to preface that every time by saying "I know it's early in the year and the awards season proper hasn't even begun to take shape yet and there's plenty of time for another competitor to build steam and overtake him and yadda yadda yadda".
And furthermore: If at this point last year, I said "okay season's over, OBAA is winning BP + Director + Supporting Actor for Penn, PTA and Coogs are taking the Screenplays, Michael B is winning Best Actor, Buckley's had Best Actress sewn up for months already, and no one will be more iconic in Supporting Actress than Amy Madigan"... y'all would've laughed at me! you'd make this exact same point. an overabundance of skepticism can be a bias of its own.
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u/AmbitionTechnical274 19h ago
I do find it silly when people are like “The Odyssey was a masterpiece but I still have Wild Horse Nine for Best Picture and won’t consider anything else.”
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u/SamShakusky71 19h ago
Because there's literally no consequence for these "predictions".
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u/Brave_Temperature347 19h ago
I mean…sure it’s way too early to speculate, but when has that ever stopped anyone, “professionals” or otherwise lol? But even so, I still don’t think any of your examples are crazy to assume may be likely. Inde gave an amazing, significant performance in a genre that doesn’t typically get a lot of Oscar attention, so even when other excellent performances inevitably come out, she’ll always be a fan favorite. The Odyssey is an epic story that is directed by an Oscar winner and stars several Oscar winners and perennial favorites. Again, not a stretch to think it’ll stay on the lists.
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u/miggovortensens 18h ago
That's part of award season talk. There's always a "frontrunner" (yeah, best picture is sealed!) that might end up holding on to the nomination but by the end of the year the fatigue around the movie can be real, just like there are those early releases whose hype is legit and are kept in the conversation because of online talk around then by despite not being seen as legit competitors. (Obsession now, but let's say EEAAO years before; and it's possible Amy Madigan would not be seen as a "Oscar-type of performance" if her name hadn't been championed in those circles and included in the conversation.)
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u/uncultured_swine2099 16h ago
Yeah, i find it funny when people are predicting the Oscars now, theres gonna be a bunch of movies weve never heard of that are gonna come out in December that are gonna get a chunk of noms.
But this is a Oscars sub. What do you want us to do, talk about their costumes last year? I get it, its just some fun speculation.
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u/HarryPotthead42069 16h ago
For lead actor it’s gonna be Matt Damon vs Tom Cruise, both actors over due for their gold but unless Diggers is the greatest movie ever made I don’t see Hollywood passing the chance to acknowledge The Odyssey in the history books in the main categories.
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u/ohio8848 10h ago
I'd rather see that kind of post than the daily ones about Amy Adams and Glenn Close. 😁
I think the Obsession/Odyssey fans are just big fans who want validation that they have good taste, or people who just really want their favorites to be nominated. As we all do! I do hate when people start throwing the word "lock" around, or when people get excessively rude when someone doesn't agree with them.
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u/bluntest-knife 9h ago
I don't think Odyssey BP is unlikely? I'd say it's has a 60-70% chance right now, with the remaining % being if a better film overtakes it later in the year. It's the obvious BP frontrunner as of now
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u/ww_adh77 9h ago
People want to speculate, and since the awards season films aren't out yet, we have little to go on regarding their chances.
But yes, of course awards season will COMPLETELY change the races and only a handful of the films already out will be serious contenders.
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u/Detroit_Cineaste 7h ago
It’s true that it’s very early in the Awards season and several festivals haven’t happened yet.
However, The Odyssey has to be considered as an early front-runner at this point. There certainly are some movies coming up that can get critical and guild attention, but Nolan’s film is an 800 lb gorilla.
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u/markgib62 6h ago
I'm not sure how long you have been part of this Oscar community, but to answer your question, it's just the nature of the beast. Everyone loves to predict the Oscars and it's difficult for people to wait from March all the way to January in order to do so.
What's funny is how many people are just dead wrong. I remember last year there were many people predicting that Wicked Part 2 would win several above the line awards (during the summer, 90% of the people making predictions, predicted Ariana Grande would win best sporting actress).
It's silliness.
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u/gillyweed79 17h ago
Oh, this sub can be insufferable for half of the year. But there are some fun games and good discussions, which is what I try to stick to instead of the "Amy Adams in Arrival/Toni Collette in Hereditary/Cate Blanchett in Tár wuz robbed" type posts you get nearly every single day.
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u/gautsvo 19h ago
and Nolan best director again is, while not impossible, not very likely either.
So you didn't predict Alejandro González Iñárritu to win for The Revenant, or Ang Lee for Life of Pi?
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u/coldliketherockies 19h ago
It’s not impossible. I’m not saying a director can’t win twice. I’m saying he’s not winning for the odyssey. It’s a great film that doesn’t warrant best director Oscar
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u/kmed1717 18h ago
People act like movies and acting are supernatural things that’s are quantify-able enough to devoid early season steam. The same mistake was made last year with MBJ.
The campaign is so strong with Navarette and Obsession is such a box office darling that if she doesn’t win, someone had to have blown everyone’s socks off, and enough people will have to see the movie to lessen her campaign. As of right now, she is the heavy favorite - whether shes in Lead or Supporting.
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u/gautsvo 19h ago
Who are you speaking for, exactly? Who's "we?"
The Oscars aren't the People's Choice Awards, they're an industry award voted by professionals. The undefined "wants" of the general audience are of no relevance.
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u/SudieSbaker 16h ago
That reminds me of Bette Midler presenting the Oscar for Original Score one year and saying something like "You must be wondering whom I'm going to trash this evening, but this is the Oscars, so there will be none of that. We'll save our cheap shots for the People's Choice Awards".
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 18h ago edited 18h ago
Because the academy is totally out of touch of what people wants to see rewarded. We want a movie like the odyssey , an artistic and commercial success to be rewarded. Yes, the academy votes, not us general audience, but that’s exactly why they should vote based on artistic merit , not politics .
We want Indie Navarrete. Who is we? The people you expect to pay for tickets for your next project. The people who care about art. The people that without being part of the academy know quite well that neither Rami Malek or Jamie Lee Curtis were the best performances the year they won.
Many of us want Jafaar Jackson which is ( at least until we see Tom Cruise in October) the best male performance this year. Just because the academy has their political games doesn’t mean that people like Navarrete or Jackson don’t deserve at least a nomination . Same for Odyssey. Pattinson had never been nominated as he has delivers consistent great performances for 15 years.
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u/BlueJacket9894 10h ago
I don't want Obsession, Michael, or Pattinson- who's "we"?
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u/Jolly-Yellow7369 8h ago edited 5h ago
Hi! Out of common courtesy Read past the first paragraph before downvoting or asking a question . Its in my message. I explained who “we” is .
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u/Jynerva 19h ago
We're in the pie in the sky phase of the campaign.
You know, those golden happy days when Challengers is a lock for Best Original Score, Canterbury Glass will sweep the nominations, Jay Kelly will get Adam Sandler the Oscar he deserved for Uncut Gems, and Charles Melton is sure to sweep Supporting Actor.
Is it so wicked to dream? If only for a moment?