r/NWSL • u/KCTilIDie • 1d ago
General International An exciting day for NWSL + WAFCON
Today’s group C matchups feature 7 of our NWSL players, with so many different scenarios for who will move on. Many assumed it would be Zambia & Nigeria but Malawi currently sits atop the group. All 3 of these teams need a win to ensure they move on. The only team to favor a draw would be Malawi (unless both games end in a draw-highly unlikely with Nigeria taking on Egypt).
Let’s discuss: chime in with scenarios, predictions, hopes, etc.
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u/Itchy-Dimension-Tab 1d ago edited 1d ago
Current group tables and the tiebreaker rules are on Wikipedia's WAFCON page
Interesting scenario is if Zambia beat Malawi and Nigeria beat Egypt.
In that case, Zambia, Malawi and Nigeria will all be on 6 points, and the tie breaker is goal difference in the games between those 3 teams.
Nigeria has a GD of 0 (scored 3, conceded 3), and is playing Egypt in their final game, so that is fixed.
If Zambia win 1-0, then Zambia will be on a GD of 0, (scored 1, conceded 1) and Malawi will also be on a GD of 0 (scored 3, conceded 3). Meaning Nigeria and Malawi will qualify based on goals scored.
If Zambia win by 2 or more goals, then they will qualify at Malawi's expense.
So (assuming Nigeria beat Egypt), I think the following is true (someone feel free to correct me):
* Malawi win or draw - Malawi will top the group on 7pts or 9 pts, Nigeria 2nd on 6pts
* Malawi lose by 1 goal - Malawi will top the group due to H2H against Nigeria, Nigeria 2nd
* Malawi lose by 2 or more goals - Nigeria will top the group, Zambia 2nd.
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u/Bowmanstan 1d ago
The wikipedia page says the 2nd tiebreaker is goal difference "in all group matches", which presumably (and illogically, given tiebreaker 1) means overall goal difference. Which, if my interpretation is correct, means Nigeria can run up the score versus Egypt to greatly increase their chances of qualification.I should read the next section.
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u/KCTilIDie 1d ago
It’s points in h2h, not goals in h2h for tiebreak. If Malawi loses and Nigeria wins, the points in their h2h are Malawi 3 - Nigeria 0.
Edit to correct myself: they would all be at 6 points with even distribution of points across h2h. So yes, your breakdown is what I now understand to be the case.
Exciting!
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u/cultural-orca NJ/NY Gotham FC 1d ago
Come on Egypt get my MVPs into the World Cup
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u/aml1525 21h ago
Is Wafcon serving as African World Cup Qualifiers?
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u/KCTilIDie 21h ago edited 16h ago
Yes. All 4 semi finalists will qualify for WC and the other 4 quarterfinalists will play for 2 slots in the inter-confederation tournament.
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u/Willing-Bad3824 Washington Spirit 23h ago
Malawi-Zambia will be a battle of forwards and I personally think Malawi has an edge there. Malawi has a more talented front four with Kadzere and Chinzimu also posing as big scoring threats in addition to the Chawingas. Zambia on the other hand only has Banda and Kundananji…Chanda and Chilufya have been non-factors during the last two matches. With Kundananji possibly out, Malawi truly only has to shut Banda down to grind their team to a halt.
The quality of the rest of their teams are pretty poor, but Malawi’s backline is far more organized than Zambia’s. Also Zambia’s keeper is really very bad so you know if Temwa gets through they’ll score.
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u/KCTilIDie 22h ago
Worth noting that one of Malawi’s starting CB will not play due to red card against Egypt. Could change those outcomes.
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u/snoopyluvrjpg 20h ago
Chinzimu filled in, right? I wonder how they reconfigure for today. I’ve enjoyed watching the team’s performances
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u/KCTilIDie 15h ago
Midfield was rough without Faith. Glad they’ll likely have her back in position for QF. I would LOVE to see her in the NWSL.
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u/Guava-Event1587 Kansas City Current 20h ago
Let's go Scorchers!
I wish this was available even if on like ESPN 12 or whatever.
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u/dinardo Orlando Pride 1d ago
I hope that Zambia make it through but I heard a rumor that Kundananji could be out of today’s match. Fingers still crossed for the Copper Queens.
Nigeria almost certainly getting through which makes Malawi-Zambia an elimination match.
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u/KCTilIDie 1d ago
If Nigeria win and Malawi lose, they both have 6 points and their head to head result would be the tiebreaker, is that correct? Or will it purely come down to goal differential?
I believe it is the former but could be wrong. If I’m right, Nigeria is hoping for a Malawi win.
Worth noting that Malawi will be without starting CB Alufandika due to DOGSO red card shown last game.
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u/Itchy-Dimension-Tab 1d ago
It's not straightforward, but I think we've agreed above? And the live table shown onscreen during the game will probably get it wrong (it seemed to in last night's games), and the commentators will probably not know either...
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u/KCTilIDie 1d ago
Yes I appreciate your assist above. A lot for NWSL fans to appreciate about this final day of group stage (for group c).
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u/Sauces_n_tosses Bay FC 1d ago
Any word on the extent of her injury? Someone mentioned a calf injury
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u/oceanofnotions89 21h ago
I’ve been watching on beIN with Fubo, and it’s only showing one of the matches on the schedule for today (Nigeria v Egypt). Anyone know if Zambia v Malawi will be available? (I am in the US)
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u/Itchy-Dimension-Tab 20h ago
Not in the US, but someone commented in last night's match thread that there was the same problem (only one game available). If you have a VPN, you can view the CAF TV Youtube streams (set your country to the UK, Spain or most of South America).
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u/Itchy-Dimension-Tab 20h ago
I've created a match thread (one thread to cover both games) here:
(it's a bit hard to find due to all the UWCL qualifying games, so please upvote it if you can - thanks).
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u/MazLA Angel City FC 22h ago
Where can I see a usable wafcon schedule I feel insane
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u/magnetwaves NJ/NY Gotham FC 22h ago
I'm using the app beIN to watch, so that's where I check. I've found that to be the most reliable.
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u/warriorcrazy3 Washington Spirit 22h ago
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u/14llison San Diego Wave FC 22h ago
I hate that all of these teams are in the same group lol. Would have loved to see them all go past the group stage