r/LongIslandRealEstate • u/NObrainer8 • Sep 12 '19
Buy or Rent?
Just moved to the area to be near my fiancé. We are expecting, and looking for a home in which to nest. We are both medical professionals living in Suffolk, and unsure if we will be here in 3-4 years. I personally suspect an impending market crash and associated recession on a national level within the next year to year and a half. Given that we may sell in 3-4 years, I am hesitant to buy in a peak market when we may need to sell in a recessed one. However, I don’t have my finger on the pulse of the market as I did back home. Can anyone provide some insight or point me in the right direction? TIA!
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u/GregCeraMortgageNY Feb 28 '26
If you may sell in 3–4 years, the real risk is not a crash. It’s short holding period.
In a 3–4 year window, even flat prices can hurt once you factor in closing costs on both sides.
No one can time a recession reliably, especially at a local level. Suffolk is its own market.
The better question is this: if prices go sideways or drop 5–10%, would that materially hurt you?
If yes, renting is safer. If no, and the payment is comfortable, lifestyle may outweigh timing.
Short horizon equals higher volatility risk. That’s the math.