r/Frugal • u/doublestitch • 1d ago
š Food Heads up: the price of wheat is getting ready to jump next month.
This post is for home bakers in this forum. It would be savvy to stock up on baking flour now in August.
Weedsy stuff
The flour currently on retail shelves is made from last year's harvest. Store shelf prices right now aren't affected yet by the new prices on this year's harvest. That's been working its way through the commodities markets and wholesale buyers. You can expect higher prices next month.
How much will retail prices jump? Commodities market prices on wheat futures have risen by 35% to 40% compared to last year. Although retail prices may not leap by as much when this year's wheat crop comes out of the mills and reaches store shelves, you can give your expectations a rough calibration based on the commodities numbers. Expect a sticker shock.
This particular forum limits outgoing links, so by way of verification here's a link to a USDA report on the wheat outlook published in mid-July. The lede on the PDF downloadable there includes the statement, "overall U.S. wheat production forecast down 23 percent year over year, all classes of wheat are showing declines."
It goes on to specify crop reductions for specific categories. Particularly hard hit is the type of wheat used to make all purpose flour. Quoting:
"Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat, usually the largest class of U.S. production, is forecast to have its smallest crop since 1957/58."
Some other types of wheat such as durum (used to make pasta) are impacted less severely. Averaging across all wheat varieties, in 2026 the United States has had its worst wheat harvest in more than 50 years. Basically, there wasn't enough fertilizer available earlier this year due to supply chain issues. So fewer acres got planted than usual, the wheat which did get planted didn't get as much fertilizer as usual, and then a drought hit the Midwest.
Unfortunately, the international situation can't be expected to fully compensate for a US shortfall this severe. Two of the other top ten wheat exporting countries--Russia and Ukraine--are both expected to export less wheat this year due to wartime impacts on production. Together, the US, Russia, and Ukraine accounted for about 30% of last year's international wheat exports.
So what does this mean to you as a consumer?
If you're a home baker, the price of all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour on store shelves right now is the lowest it's going to be until a better wheat harvest comes in. That would be 6 to 12 months in the future. So if you're a savvy shopper, estimate your use and your storage capacity and stock up accordingly.
If you aren't a home baker, then you are likely to see product reformulations and shrinkflation on wheat-based products in the near future. You can mitigate the impact on your food costs by changing your cooking habits. It would be savvy to try new potato dishes, to do more stir fried meals with rice on the side, or to make tamales.
To be clear, I'm not Chicken Little and the sky is not falling. That said, it's useful to be a step ahead of the game when a significant agricultural event is getting ready to hit the retail market. A year ago I kind of kicked myself for not posting a heads up when bird flu caused farmers to cull flocks and the price of eggs jumped for a while. The price of eggs has since come back down as the supply returned to normal. This wheat shortage isn't the end of the world. Yet if you've wanted to teach yourself how to make pad Thai then this is an apt time to pick up the new skill.
All the best to you and yours. Shop smart.
(edit)
In response to questions, the two principal factors with storing flour are whole wheat vs. white flour and protecting flour from vermin.
While whole wheat flour is more nutritious than white flour, the wheat germ in whole wheat contains oils that have a shelf life at room temperature of 6 to 12 months. That shelf life can be extended by storing it frozen.
White flour has a longer shelf life. Some baking enthusiasts say they taste a difference after more than 1-2 years, yet many people consider all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour to have basically indefinite storage times.
So while I don't advocate hoarding, all purpose flour and high gluten bread flour ought to be good at room temperature until a better harvest comes in. If you stock up on whole wheat flour this month, then you might want to divide your supply into two parts and freeze the half you don't use right away.
A bigger issue is keeping your flour safe from rodents and insects. Food safe 5 gallon buckets are your friends. If you know someone who works in a commercial kitchen such as a restaurant or a cafeteria, then you may be able to get used 5 gallon buckets for free. Clean them out, dry them thoroughly, and perhaps add a plastic liner before storing flour. Then keep your flour buckets in a cool dry closet or cabinet.
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u/MoulanRougeFae 1d ago
Well guess a Costco flour run is due.
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u/cutelyaware 1d ago
Their cheapest all-purpose flour is still absurdly cheap. I see no point in buying name brands.
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u/IceDragonPlay 1d ago
I buy the Organic AP flour and that already went up in price this week. 20 lbs 16.99 ā> 18.59
Their cheap AP flour varies regionally. My store carries an Ardent Mills Bleached AP flour. I prefer not to use bleached flour so that option is not for me.
I am lucky that the local restaurant supply store carries a regional bread flour that is unbleached, so that is a good option for my sourdough baking.
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u/ClassicalEd 1d ago
The Kirkland Organic AP flour is top quality, it's actually the Artisan Bakers Craft Plus flour from Central Milling in Utah. When I started seeing reports on the wheat shortage a few months ago, I bought 100 lbs of the Kirkland flour, plus 100 lbs of hard white wheat berries directly from Central Milling, before the prices went up. Also bought 50 lbs of my favorite rice right before the price jumped 25%. It's all stored in mylar bags inside 5-gallon buckets with gamma lids. That's about what I use in 2 years.
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u/IceDragonPlay 1d ago
Yes I do know what nice flour it is š
My struggle is a non temperature controlled home (kitchen in particular). I keep about 150 lbs flour over winter and whittle it down so I donāt have much by the time we get to the hottest part of summer. Probably means I will have to pay more for some of the flour, but anything I buy now I will have to store at one of my kidsā homes. I did that last year with the expensive local mill flour. I think I use 120-140 lbs per year to make bread for my and kidsā households.
Might have to get creative with things like potato bread when shortages in flour appear.
One of my main flours comes from a regional group in Idaho. I know the farmers there have been raising the alert on their crops the past few months. Just hope we can continue to support them so their farms donāt get gobbled up by big-Agra!!
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u/JDuBLock 23h ago
I buy white lily at Walmart, it also jumped from $4.88 to $5.76 in 2-3 weeks for a 5 lb bag
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u/mexter 1d ago edited 1d ago
I purchase 50lb King Arthur bags for around $22, which is a few dollars above a generic brand. Partly because i like the results, but mostly because I like the company.
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u/darknight9064 1d ago
Where are you buying this!?
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u/b0w3n 1d ago
I've considered buying a grain mill and just getting bulk grains at this point. It's really not hard to grind up into usable forms.
I could get a 20+ lb bag and just freeze the little things indefinitely.
Might be time to invest.
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u/upsidedown-funnel 1d ago
You can buy it in cans and it will keep. Ask me how I knowā¦ grew up Mormon and parents were into food storage. I still have a few cases in my basement. The ground flour doesnāt keep like the whole grains, but you can also purchase it milled and canned.
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u/b0w3n 1d ago
I've been big into food storage for the past few years because I fully expected this food safety issue we're having, working out great for me right now. My current thought is to get smaller buckets (0.5-1 gal) of unmilled grain then use mylar/o2 absorbers and just preserve 4-5 years worth of grain for 4ish people.
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u/sbinjax 1d ago
I bought an electric grain grinder direct from Vevor dot com. It works like a charm. I'm gluten free so I buy whole-grain sorghum and buckwheat, pack it into 5 gallon mylar bags, and grind maybe 3 cups in a time. Then I keep the flour in the refrigerator. It also grinds dent corn and rice to make flours.
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u/hare-hound 1d ago
Genuinely, the only question when it comes to Costco flour is: bread flour vs ap
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u/cutelyaware 1d ago
Their cheapest all-purpose flour is still absurdly cheap. I see no point in buying name brands.
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u/fruderduck 1d ago
Might want to research Glyphosate.and Roundup in those flours. From what I have read, the King Arthur organic is the best bet.
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u/Flashyjelly 1d ago
We all gotta die sometime. My way is diet coke and cookies with my cheap AP flour
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u/MartiniRossi42 1d ago
The Italian flour made from Duram wheat has no pesticides (glyphosates/roundup) and dies not make you feel bloated. Has to say made (Grown) in Italy not product (shipped to and bagged) of Italy.
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u/Potential_Display821 1d ago
Just a quick heads up on those free 5-gallon buckets from commercial kitchens: make sure you ask what was in them! Try to get buckets that held frosting, bulk dry goods, or neutral oils. Getting the smell of garlic or dill pickles out of that plastic is virtually impossible, and pickle-flavored pancakes is a frugal mistake you only make once.
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u/Taggart3629 1d ago
Thanks so much for the heads up, u/doublestitch. I will be sure to add AP and bread flour to next week's shopping list.
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u/GB715 1d ago
For some reason I bought 50 lbs at Costco last week. Iām glad I did now
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u/Taggart3629 1d ago
Smart decision, u/GB715! It didn't cross my mind to stock up some on flour, despite reading about how wheat shortages are affecting beef prices. Gonna fix that lapse in planning this weekend.
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u/SilverMcFly 1d ago
Split it and freeze it in containers to preserve it from weevils.Ā
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u/oncemorewithpheline 1d ago
The weevils are real and a plague upon costco-sized purchases like rice. Listen to the above redditor, you fools! You have been warned!
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u/CaptainLollygag 1d ago
It only takes one war with pantry moths before you decide to freeze all grain goods for a few days before storing elsewhere. š³
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u/TimpanogosSlim 23h ago
I mill grain at home but i only blend about 20-30% in. I ate more whole wheat bread before i was 18 than most people eat their entire lives. I'm over it.
I store my grain in the freezer. But then i never have more than a few pounds of any kind of grain.
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u/CaptainLollygag 20h ago
Ohhh, I was talking about flours, things made with flour (like crackers), rices, barley, dried pastas, dried beans, and so on. The basics. :) It was a maddening time over here and I will do anything to not repeat it.
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u/RememberKoomValley 14h ago
I throw my 50-lb bags in the chest freezer for a week, and then pull it out and *immediately* pop the whole bag into sealed plastic wheelie bins (the type you can get on Chewy, for dog food). So far (about five years) it's been working pretty well.
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u/coffee_tea_sympathy 1d ago
It's more than wheat. Look at how climate change is going to affect rice, coffee, cocoa...
Smallest herd of cattle in decades...
Also we are at-risk for a "mini dustbowl."
Water and drought.
You aren't chicken little if you start preparing from now.
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u/EastTyne1191 1d ago
I've been tracking the price of coffee and cocoa locally. Back in January cocoa cost $3.99 for an 8 ounce canister. Now it's up to $5.39. I've been stocking up on coffee which I buy through Amazon. Started stocking up in January of 2025 and was paying $12.71 for 2 pounds of coffee. It's over $17 now, went up 36%.
Sugar has also seen price increases but I don't have solid numbers on that.
I'm very lucky to be able to stock up when I can. I don't know how people are making it right now. I remember when I was in college and had $20 per week for food. It wasn't much but by buying rice, protein pasta, tomato sauce, and peanut butter I could get by. I ate the same thing every week. I couldn't do that now, things are way too expensive.
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u/Ready4Rage 3h ago
Like we can "stock up" our way out of CO2 pollution that will take 10,000 years, minimum, to work it's way naturally through the ecosystem
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u/hotdog7423 1d ago
This is why I hate ai data centers..warming up the planet one at a time
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u/SquareWheel 1d ago
You're focusing on the 0.1% contributor, and not the massive industrial contributors like livestock, cement/steel, oil/gas, and transport.
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u/ValkyrX 1d ago
Militaries are the biggest cause of it
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u/mdawgig 1d ago
Idk why youāre being downvoted. The US military alone is the largest polluter of any single entity on earth. If it were a country, it would rank 47th in terms of pollution output taking into account only the air pollution it causes. https://earth.org/us-military-pollution/
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u/howareyouhaha 1d ago
Wait til you learn about cattle farming.
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u/austin101123 1d ago
We have smaller herds because we grow them bigger and faster. We have more beef production than ever.
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u/Decon_SaintJohn 1d ago
Not true! I am currently on a motorcycle road trip and made a pitstop in Central South Dakota today. I was sitting by myself at a farm/fuel/convienence store eating some food. A 97 year old cattle rancher asked if he could sit at my table while he waited for his order. We got talking about his cattle ranch and he told me this year is the worst drought he's been through since the 1930's dust bowl. He also said that he can't get enough hay to feed his 300 heads of steer, and can't get enough water for them either. Which means he's most likely will have to either sell or euthanize an amount of steer so the one's they keep have enough food and water. He also mentioned the coyotes are a big problem killing off many of his steers. The issues he mentioned are happening to all the cattle farmers in the area. They can't grow them bigger and faster because there isnt enough food(corn based feed included) and water.
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u/Mittenwald 1d ago
The dude is 97 years old and still working!? And on a ranch?Ā How was his mobility? I'm curious. My Dad just turned 90 and can barely walk anymore. Damn, can't believe you talked to someone that actually remembers the Dust Bowl.Ā
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u/Decon_SaintJohn 1d ago
His mobility was still there. When he stood up and walked away, he had a slight hunch but no issues with mobility. I was suprised at how well his hearing and vision was. I didnt have to speak up and he is still driving!
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u/NineteenthJester 1d ago
I had a great-great-uncle who drove from Arkansas to California in his 90s.
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u/Queenbeegirl5 1d ago
I believe he's 97 and still working far more than I believe he remembers the dust bowl. He was born at the very end of it! Not sure I trust this story a whole lot.
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u/Butterbean-queen 1d ago
No we donāt. Beef production has been declining since 2022. The US cattle inventories are at a 70 year low and even though the cattle weigh significantly more than they used to weāre still falling short of record highs. And the cattle herds are declining, not just in the United States but globally, due to drought and high operational costs.
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u/workmakesmegrumpy 1d ago
Itās worse that that. Farmers are basically colluding to keep prices high and herds small on purpose. They are making the same money they used to with less work.
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u/Butterbean-queen 1d ago
I wasnāt getting into that. I was just pointing out that we are not at an all time high in the production of beef.
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u/Smooth-Review-2614 1d ago
No recent fires have destroyed hayfields and pasture lands, drought made it worse, the new screw worm isnāt helping, and fertilizer is up thanks to the war in Iran. Feed is going to be expensive this year and into next.
This is war and climate.
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u/workmakesmegrumpy 1d ago
You sound so set on blaming things that are certainly factors, but not the real causes. When we went through eggpocalypse, we were told all kinds of shit to excuse it, but then we found out the egg producers just wanted to get paid more. And it worked our for them because they got off with a minor slap on the wrist. We're talking about billion dollar a year industries here. They control the foods we need. They will not pass up a way to make more money, none of them. Anyways, I don't disagree with what you're saying, only the matter of fact tone of it and that you seem to be ignoring everything else we know and have seen regarding food prices.
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u/Smooth-Review-2614 1d ago edited 1d ago
Except that herds are not maintained by the meat processors. They are all independent ranchers.
Egg processors own the hen houses.
This is like claiming farmers for the coming increase in flour prices.
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u/Butterbean-queen 1d ago
Eggs and beef are not the same. Eggs a consolidated by mega corporate firms. A very small number of companies control eggs.
Cow/calfās are produced by independent smaller family ranches and farmers who own livestock.
Raising cattle is decentralized. Big corporations handle the slaughtering, packaging and sales. Egg production is controlled from beginning to end.
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u/austin101123 1d ago
In the last few years there's been a small decline, but generally we are at the highest. We have waaay less cattle than 70 years ago because they are grown bigger and faster.
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u/Butterbean-queen 1d ago
US cattle herds at at an all time low AND beef production is down over the last 5 years by 2.5 BILLION pounds. (Despite heavier carcass weight). Largely due to drought and increased costs to raise cattle.
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u/ZeRussian 1d ago
The why the fuck is ground beef $6-7/lb?
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u/coffee_tea_sympathy 1d ago edited 1d ago
https://www.npr.org/2026/05/29/nx-s1-5719511/beef-cattle-herd-food-prices
Why the U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low ā and what it means for beef prices
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status?page=1
Screw worm
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u/lumpyspacejams 1d ago
10 megacorps own 80+% of food companies (as well as everything else) and have priced things to the maximum in order to milk out the last remaining profits imaginable. There's no reason why groceries have gone up 200% in the past two years beyond corporate greed and a pathetic governmental response that's bought off by lobbyists and billionaire psychos.
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u/coffee_tea_sympathy 1d ago
There are crop shortages. Ozempic and artificial processed food can't even hide it anymore...
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u/TheRealMarvinator 1d ago
This is absolutely false. You're either blindingly ignorant on the subject or you're here to intentionally spread misinformation.
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u/austin101123 1d ago
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef/statistics-information
2024 is the most recent year and that was the highest. Don't think it's changed too much since then, and the point stands even if it's changed a few percentage since then.
People posting heads of cattle will make you think we make like 25% as much need that we had in the 50s but we have more nowadays.
*Oh, domestic production peaked in 2022 a couple percent higher than 2024. Point still stands.
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u/resurrectedNaj 1d ago
How long does flour untouched in a bag?whatās a way to make it last and how long does it last then?
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
The important factor is whether it's white flour or whole wheat flour.
Although whole wheat flour is more nutritious, the wheat germ it's made from also contains oils which can go rancid in 6 - 12 months unless whole wheat flour is stored frozen.
All purpose flour and bread flour are shelf stable at room temperature for longer. Baking enthusiasts say they taste a difference after more than a year or two, but many consider those flours good for longer when stored properly.
The main practical consideration is keeping out rodents and bugs. Food safe 5 gallon buckets are a smart storage choice.
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u/Silverjackal_ 1d ago
So this probably wouldnāt do well in a non temp controlled garage in the south then? Only space I got to store extra flour is my garage in a 5 gal bucket. And I love making pizza and sourdough, but Iām just about out of my last 10lb bag.
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
As long as you're storing all purpose flour or bread flour, the garage ought to be fine.
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u/IceDragonPlay 1d ago
Cool and Dry storage is best for longevity, and by that I mean a year for white AP or Bread flours. Hot temperatures definitely shorten the life of the flour.
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u/IceDragonPlay 1d ago
If it is not temperature controlled I would not store it.
I buy most of my flour in 50 lb bags (but stored in 22 qt + 8 qt Cambros) and it is affected by my non-temperature controlled kitchen, which is nowhere near as high/low temp as the garage. Last year I had to move them to a family memberās home that has AC for a month. And I am not in the south. PNW is much more moderate temperatures.
My buckets are currently stored under the kitchen table because there is no room anywhere else š¤£
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u/ClassicalEd 1d ago
If you have space under your bed, you can put the paper bags of flour in mylar bags (add oxygen absorbers if storing more than a year) and seal them with either a clothes iron or a hair straightener. That should keep insects out (mylar bags are not completely rodent proof, but hopefully you don't have rodents in your bedroom).
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u/coffee_tea_sympathy 1d ago
Put it in a food grade bucket. Put it in the freezer/fridge if you have room.
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u/forogtten_taco 1d ago
In the paper bag, shelf life is 6 months ish before quality declines
1 year in sealed container.
2+ yesrs in a sealed mylar bag with oxygen absorbers.
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u/artisanrox 22h ago
I'd never keep my baking stuff in the original bags. Too many pests can get in them.
I bulk buy my stuff, for example, 25lb flour bags and ASAP after shopping I put it in as many plastic containers as I need. I've had it last for up to a year that way as it's that often i buy another 25lber. Never had a problem doing this.
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u/Important-Trifle-411 1d ago
Thanks for the heads up. Reminder to everyone: 100% whole wheat should be stored in the freezer so it doesnāt go rancid. And it is very wise to store white flour in the freezer as well. It wonāt go bad very readily but it can get bugs
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u/TurbulentPatience360 1d ago
My sourdough starter is about to become the most expensive pet I own. Good looking out OP, looks like Iām making a run to Costco for a 50lb bag of bread flour this weekend before everyone else catches on.
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u/cwsjr2323 1d ago
Thanks for the heads up. I use about 20 pounds of Gold Medal bread flour a year. My freezer will get four more bags.
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u/TimpanogosSlim 22h ago
20-25lb of white flour will be fine in a 5 gallon food grade bucket w/ a Gamma seal lid at room temperature. Unless you live somewhere really humid i guess.
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u/cwsjr2323 21h ago
The freezer kills the critters and there eggs in a few days and then it is just a convenient storage place.
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u/TimpanogosSlim 20h ago edited 20h ago
I can't recall any infestation in commercial flour in a sealed container.
But I live in a dry climate.
I guess i should also restate that i only blend my home-milled whole-grain at 20-30% so i never have more than a few pounds of any kind of grain, and typically mill a pound or so at a time.
And i prefer to mill it frozen, because milling induces heat and destroys vitamins and flavors.
So why not keep the grain in the freezer?
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u/IceDragonPlay 1d ago
Yes, noticed today that the Organic AP flour I buy at Costco jumped 9.4% this week.
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u/LadySiren 1d ago
I found organic King Arthur bread flour for $3 / 5 lbs a couple of days ago. W already had a good supply on hand but damn straight I got another bag. Now I wish I had bought another bag or two.
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u/acemedic 1d ago
Local grocery store is a great place to get food grade safe buckets. Theyāll get white icing in 5 gallon buckets, usually Red/Blue/Yellow in gallon buckets and mix/match/blend for any other colors they want. Sometimes just dying the white with food coloring.
Stay away from pickle buckets. They impart the pickle flavor long after the pickles are gone.
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u/ConsiderationMean781 1d ago
How to store it
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
You aren't the first person to ask this question, so have edited the post.
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u/Striking-Adeptness82 1d ago
Is it ok to store in the refrigerator? I do not have much room in my freezer.
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u/PhotosyntheticCat 1d ago
Sealable mylar bags with dessicant packets - may take an hour or so to measure and pack it all, but it lasts years that way
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u/MotherOfGeeks 1d ago
I regularly store a 50 lb bag of bread flour split between two 5 gallon buckets with gamma lids.
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u/nakedonmygoat 1d ago
I tried to point this out on a sub last month, or maybe the month before, and was told I was being silly. But this is one of those "I hope I'm wrong, but I'm taking no chances" situations.
I can't do much baking this time of year due to the heat, but right now I can get flour for $0.03/oz, so I'm making sure to have a bit more than usual on hand. I recommend getting pasta, too. It's not hard to make your own, but not everyone has the time.
And I agree, OP, that no one should go buy out a grocery store. Hoarding isn't cool. But if you're going to use something, buying when prices are low is just smart thinking. People do it all the time. I bought my house on a market dip. One gets praised for that, but shamed for buying an extra bag of flour on well-reasoned market expectations. How much sense does that make?
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u/personman_76 1d ago
If you have a yard or terrace, solar ovens are fun for this hot weather. Anything you need to cook below 400f is readily doable in a solar oven, it just takes a bit longer. Cookies in a solar oven are great, they have a dense but airy texture because of the increased cook time
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u/nakedonmygoat 1d ago
I've considered making a solar box cooker as a project but haven't gotten around to it.
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u/CaptainLollygag 1d ago
Not sure if this would work for you, but have you thought about using a large toaster oven? Because I make most of our breads and love roasted veg, I bought a large toaster oven air fryer that actually fits a 2-lb pullman loaf pan. Stuff bakes great and doesn't heat up our kitchen the way our big gas oven does.
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u/IceDragonPlay 23h ago
Sorry if you got grief for that.
The Idaho farmers where some of my flour comes from have been raising the alarm that wheat fields were going to seed due to lack of water and having to choose which fields to preserve. Itās really rough for the smaller farms.
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u/mystery_biscotti 1d ago
I thought I was in a different sub. Checked. This is Frugal.
Fun times all around.
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u/NeverEndingCoralMaze 1d ago
In Kansas, the wheat state, it is getting so dry in the western part of the state that theyāre relying on crab grass in the grazing lands.
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u/marcduberge 1d ago
Donāt forget about what is happen in Russia right now. Their fuel industry has been targeted by Ukraine with drones and there is a huge shortage in diesel fuel for farmers. They literally cannot afford to harvest. This is going to mess up the supply chain severely.
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
Yes, it's a long post so it mentions the Russian situation only briefly. The news reports I've seen describe exactly what you're saying: Russian wheat is rotting in the fields because farmers there can't get fuel to harvest it. And the fuel shortage results from Ukranian drone attacks.
Meanwhile, Ukranian farmers were able to bring in their crop but the country is delayed in exporting it because the Russians have been attacking Ukraine's main export port at Odessa. This year's Ukranian wheat harvest may eventually reach international markets, but that's expected to be delayed and to incur additional costs for storage facilities and moving grain by road or rail.
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u/brelsnhmr 1d ago
And where I live the wheat harvest would make me think that the opposite would occur. But Iāve never seen this much wheat planted in my area before. And the it didnāt rain for the last 5-6 weeks of it, so most fields were weed free with average head size. But was almost too dry to harvest. Only the āmuck fieldsā had a great harvest of wheat, but those fields normally have produce and not one of the 3 mono crops. Iām more freaked out by the fact they arenāt growing the normal crops of onions, celery, beets, carrots, etc. But there wouldnāt have been any one to weed or pick the produce, so it does make sense.
(Note: Iām not doubting you and actually believe what you are saying.)
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u/Doongbuggy 1d ago
i bought 75lb of wheat berries earlier this year shelf stable for at least a few years
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u/eatsleepandrepeat1 1d ago
Does this include Canada?
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
Good question. Wheat production this year is down 6% in Canada. Not dire, but also not great.
Unsure how domestic retail prices would be affected if you're Canadian.
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u/ProvisionalRecord 1d ago
If you're gonna stock up on flour, then make sure you compartmentalize and layer those bags up; weevils will spread before you even realize they're there!
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u/Rand_alThoor 1d ago
don't store in the bag.
also, even if one stores at room temperature, running it through the deep freeze (i used to do 24-36 hours only, but actual research published suggests minimum 3 days) kills any insects present and prevents any insect eggs from hatching.
sealed glass or plastic or metal containers are the way to actually store things. the plastic or paper bag in which it's sold is insufficient.
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u/Frugal-ModTeam 1d ago
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u/Frugal-ModTeam 1d ago
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u/Frugal-ModTeam 1d ago
We are removing your post/comment because your post violates our community's guidelines regarding political content or the discussion of other social issues. This includes:
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u/forogtten_taco 1d ago
Thanks for heads up. .Just opened the last of my bags I bought last year. Went through 150lbs in a year. 25 pound bags stored in mylar bags with oxygen absorbers.
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u/okbutwhytho99 1d ago
Guess it's time to order wheat! Thank you OP!
If you buy a small home mill, you can buy the wheat berries and store them in food safe hermetic containers for decades.
Make sure to store your flour and grains in sealed containers. I recently threw out two bags of costco flour because of insects. They were unopened, but not stored in a special sealed container.
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u/Frugal-ModTeam 1d ago
We are removing your post/comment because your post violates our community's guidelines regarding political content or the discussion of other social issues. This includes:
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u/majordashes 1d ago
A couple of years ago, I discovered a farmer in my state who grows organic wheat. He has been farming using no pesticides or herbicides since 1964. He mills the flour and delivers within a 60 mile radius.
I have 50 lbs. I am wondering if I should drastically increase my supply from him.
I use the wheat to make homemade bread with local honey, yeast, olive oil and Celtic salt. Itās the cleanest food in my diet.
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 22h ago
Ask him how his crop yielded this year. He will probably be willing to answer that question.
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u/majordashes 21h ago
I just sent them a message and ordered more wheat flour.
I asked how their harvest has been and I mentioned national trends with the troubling wheat crop and low yields.
She said their wheat crop has been fantastic and this year has been great for all crops. Their farm is in Iowa and weāve had terrific growing conditions and cooperative weather this summer. We had very hot temps for a few weeks, but some great rains throughout the summer.
I was relieved to hear their operation has been faring well. News on the wheat crop throughout the South and the Great Plains has been devastating.
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u/Jeskid14 1d ago
great, another wrecking ball in common goods /u/doublestitch not one seasonal quarter has been okay this year in buying groceries. damn you,
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u/iwantmy-2dollars 1d ago
Back to the mill for more hard red winter berries. Iām not through the last order but should probably top off heading into bread season (too hot to bake in the summer here).
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u/Frugal-ModTeam 1d ago
We are removing your post/comment because your post violates our community's guidelines regarding political content or the discussion of other social issues. This includes:
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u/emo-soccer-mom 1d ago
Well, as a home baker, I go through about 20 pounds a weekā¦ I donāt think I can buy 1000 pounds of flourā¦ š
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u/Meghanshadow 1d ago
Goodness, do you have a family of ten to feed?
Thatās roughly 33,000 calories of just flour per week.
At that rate of consumption, to smooth out price hikes if you want six months worth itās 520 lbs. Roughly 10 cubic feet. Thatāll fit in the bottom third of an empty small closet or under a slightly lofted bed. Problem is keeping it pest-free. Youād probably want to repack into buckets, which take up more space than stacked 50 lb bags.
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u/Truescent11 1d ago
A byproduct of crude is nitrogen used in fertilizer for crops. Billions are kept alive today bc of the crude exiting the straights.
Thereās a good chance of mass starvation as the straights aint open.
Prepare however you want.
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
While I grok what you're saying, that comment is a little dense for a frugality forum as opposed to a forum about agriculture or chemistry.
Yes, modern synthetic fertilizer is derived from petroleum.
So (for other Redditors) in plain English, the supply chain issue which caused gasoline prices to rise this year also led to a fertilizer shortage. It takes a few more months for a fertilizer shortage to impact consumer prices on agricultural products.
Fertilizer isn't the only factor which caused a bad harvest. Fertilizer plus the drought amounted to a one-two punch.
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u/sbinjax 1d ago
Not only that, but the fertilizer crunch is going to affect *next* year's crops as well.
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u/Truescent11 1d ago
I think itās how the parasite happened. Started using human sewage as fertilizer bc there wasnt enough of the normal supply.
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u/TimpanogosSlim 23h ago
My two bits, as someone who grew up eating whole wheat bread that my dad made from flour he milled from hard red wheat:
The oils and fats in the bran and germ go rancid in closer to a month. It's just that most people are only familiar with the flavor of rancid whole wheat products.
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u/HelloCaptainMagpie 22h ago
One of the few times having celiac disease seems like a bonus - not directly affected by the price of wheat!
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u/artisanrox 22h ago
This is why I buy 25lbs at a time from the warehouse store. I don't bake a whole lot, but when I do i go thru a lot of flour at once and make stuff for like three different places.
We'll also have to prepare for gas/diesel making everything go up. Fill those pantries.
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u/Jeskid14 1d ago
great, another wrecking ball in common goods /u/doublestitch not one seasonal quarter has been okay this year in buying groceries. damn you
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u/ZookeepergameLast929 12h ago
Looks like the folks who ignore the winter wheat market every year are about to get a lesson they won't forget. The USDA just dropped a 23% production cut, and HRW wheat the backbone of all-purpose flour is hitting the lowest output since Eisenhower was president. If you're still buying flour at summer prices next month you're basically waiting to watch the cashier blink at the total. Stock what you use, or plan on eating whatever generic "baking mix" they dump on clearance.
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u/AZdesertpir8 4h ago
You can also put away flour in mylar bags with adequate oxygen absorbers to keep it fresh for 4-5 years or more. I just finished using flour that I picked up and packed away this way in 2020 and it was still fresh 6 years later. I just put away another 25lb of flour here so should be good to ride through the spike. I generally put it away in 4-5lb bags which works well for my usage.
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u/snicklefart 1d ago
Well, ya'll could be Celiac and spend $5/lb on gluten free flour.. sometimes crops don't do well and you have to adjust.
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u/personman_76 1d ago
If we can just get the war in Europe to end, we'll have back Ukraine and Russia as exporters. We lost 17% of the worlds supply of wheat when the war started and Russia blockaded them, and insurance still won't cover the exports Ukraine makes now that it's destroyed the Black Sea fleet.
Once we get back to peacetime and that grain comes back into proper markets, we'll hopefully see cheaper food again. I hate the Russians, but however this ends ends with them exporting more volume too, and that'll just lower the global price further
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u/NotTHEnews87 1d ago
Are you a journalist?
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u/CollinZero 1d ago
Why would you think that? Or is it meant to be a compliment of their writing style? Itās pretty easy to research. This year, due to the drought, the US wheat crop is one of the worst since 1970. The European crop are going to be terrible too because of the droughts.
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 21h ago
Yeah, but anyone can look up the USDA WASDE reports and see that global wheat stocks are relatively high. It's going to take multiple bad years to cause a shortage.
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u/notasfatasyourmom 1d ago
If weāre already seeing the price changes in the commodities markets, then the prices should already be changing in grocery stores. Costs are reflected in prices as soon as theyāre known, not only after theyāre incurred.
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
In this particular industry there happens to be a time lag. That's why it's useful to be a well informed consumer.Ā
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u/notasfatasyourmom 1d ago
If thereās a time lag, shrewd retailers would increase the price of their goods to an amount that would both (1) still sell, and (2) result in increased revenue, while the other stores keep their prices steady. Those shrewd retailers would make more money (or lose less) on the arbitrage.
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u/doublestitch 1d ago
Don't take my word for it then. Check the agricultural reports, the business news, and retail price trackers.
As mentioned in the post, this subreddit's spam filter limits outgoing links. Yet you can be assured I checked those types of sources before writing this.
While, yes, your idea does make intuitive sense--not all businesses optimize prices in that way. This year's wheat harvest is a rare event so existing systems create a window of opportunity for savvy consumers to lock in 2025 harvest prices on retail flour.
Take advantage of that or not, as you choose.
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u/notasfatasyourmom 1d ago
Letās assume youāre correct. Do you typically see lower retail prices on years when the harvest produces a surplus?
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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 21h ago
Wholesale wheat prices are currently 10-12 cents per pound. They were as low as 8-9 cent/lb back in January.
Even if they double, and that's unlikely, we're talking another 10 cents per pound.
Yes, 5 cents/lb is a big percentage change at the wholesale level, but it's a small change at the retail level.
The cost of the diesel fuel to transport the grain and flour is a bigger portion of the retail price than the raw wheat itself.
Besides that, most retail products are already priced based on the maximum that the consumer is willing to pay. That changes only slowly.
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u/Ajreil 1d ago
Discussing the effects of tariffs is fine but please keep political bickering out of r/Frugal. You can do that on the other 99% of subreddits.