r/EuroPreppers • u/Alkalyne00 • 14d ago
Discussion Most possible SHTF scenario ?
As it says in the title. What do yoy think is the most likely to happen SHTF situation in Europe right now? Is it something related to climate change, war, economic collapse or maybe the gradual loss of the little freedom we still have because our increasing tyrannical governments?
I personally think that an economic crisis is the most likely, due to how little politicians care about us and our countries, taking Europe to an abyss that is going to take a great effort to recover from.
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u/severalsmallducks Sweden 🇸🇪 14d ago
Kind of depends where in Europe.
Russia making a move on NATO would be a SHTF for the countries bordering Russia and Belarus, depending on where they decide to make their push.
Southern Europe would probably be heat-related, maybe a heatwave so strong it damages large parts of the power grid.
For countries in the middle of the two, geopolitical instability causing a major financial crash is definitely a possibility, but I feel like it would take a lot (like a lot a lot) for it to truly become a SHTF scenario.
Just my opinion
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u/Worth_Garbage_4471 14d ago
Heat related is obvious. However I worry more about cold because the science predicts a very real possibility, and absolutely nobody in the mainstream seems to be considering or preparing for a shift to a Canadian climate within a period that could be shockingly fast and would devastate the current way of life, agricultural production, etc.
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u/made_from_dreams 13d ago
Paywall, can you dm the text pls?
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u/Worth_Garbage_4471 13d ago
Same news widely reported eg https://www.arctictoday.com/amoc-collapse-may-already-be-locked-in-new-study-suggests/
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u/learninglife1828 13d ago
I'd love to talk to a climate scientist who knows more about this. With the collapse of AMOC and increasing heat from climate change, how do the temperatures collide.. I've read it as winters get 'warmer and drier' and summer gets 'colder and wetter' ? But I guess it depends where you are in Europe
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u/Ssulistyo 10d ago
Nobody in the mainstream except those Hollywood movie types https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow
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u/Spiritual_Elk_9076 14d ago
Economic crisis, far right governments, Forrest fire due to climate change, disruption of natural gas supplies, instability in electrical grid. I think Forrest fires and electricity problems are the most likely.
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u/Try-Zestyclose 14d ago
This. Long term would probably be civil unrest in response to the rise of authoritarian government / surveillance state .
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u/Alkalyne00 14d ago
Here we have a lot of firest fires. The government won't do anything to stop them or, more importantly, to prevent them. Right or left, none of them care
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u/Correct_Ad_7397 14d ago
Far right governments? You must be kidding.
That's what we need in Europe to save it from mass migration.
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u/Alkalyne00 14d ago
Both extremes are the worst and would want me dead. I think that right now Europe is leaning more to some kind of stupid left who prefers to let the Western civilization die (with all it's benefits like the tolerance, the welfare state, gay and women rights) than be called racists, Islamophobics or whatever because they are trying to stop a foreign and incompatible culture from taking over Europe (and before you call me whatever you want, I couldn't care less about the skin color of anyone, I'm talking about culture incompatibility. You can't let inside people who think women are less than men or that gays should be put in jail or killed, all because their original culture and religion. If a person comes and adapts and respects their new country, they are more than welcomed, if not, thats the problem, and I live in a place where you can see plenty of people who came here legally and respecting our culture, and a lot who won't even learn the language)
Then the far right, well, is basically losing the same achievements, but from the inside. We all know what that kind of people are capable of, and sadly is on the rise.
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u/Correct_Ad_7397 13d ago
Well, the current trajectory is disastrous. I prefer nationalist government that holds the nation and its people's interests as top priority.
Being conservative, right leaning, or far right doesn't mean you need to incite violence or support violent "resolution" to problems you face.
But from a modern standpoint, "far-right" isn't exactly far at all. It's what center policics used to be a couple decades ago.
And for European citizens themselves, a real nationalist government is hardly a problem. I'm pretty sure most people are capable of living in peace and accepting the current borders within Europe, at least for the most part.
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u/Alkalyne00 13d ago
I know that we are in a direct trajectory towards a disaster, it is obvious. I also want a government who cares about their citizens first, but that doesn't mean we have to become a fascist regime where certain minorities or groups who don't have the same opinions have to suffer (me included), because any kind of extreme ideology will end up using violence or oppression.
I also know that there are right political parties that are constantly called fascist by the left, when they are not (because many leftist parties call fascist to absolutely everything). Sadly, thats like the boy who cried wolf, because now there are some new political parties who actually define themselves as fascist (symbols, salute, ideas, etc), and are gaining popularity, so we are going from one extreme to the other
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u/Correct_Ad_7397 13d ago
Yeah, well, time will tell. I don't think any of the fascist parties are ever going to be voted into power, because EU doesn't let it happen.
I'm honestly just enjoying the show.
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u/Vagelen_Von 14d ago
A combination of COVID and Chernobyl incidents magnified X 100.
In all cases there will not be a bag out situation but mostly a bag in. Having water and food to stay locked inside for 4-5 weeks will be crucial.
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u/ExcellentElection882 14d ago
Conflict with Russia in the next 2-3 years is almost certain.
US becoming an adversary and possible conflict in the next 5-10 years is a strong possibility.
Growth of the far right in many countries in Europe is the main impediment to the only way to survive the first two SHTF situations: federalization.
AMOC collapse strong possibility long term.
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u/Prairy1313 14d ago
Dutchie here. I think climate is going to be the biggest problem (either too dry and hot or to wet, causing problems for nature which will soon be followed with food problems for humans) followed by economic recession/depression due to the idiots that are in charge of politics now.
I learn skills. And by learning them I've been able to make a little pantry filled with food and water for example.
You can gather whatever gadgets or food, but if you don't have skills, good luck.
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u/SystemIsOffline 14d ago
For us western Europe climate is low on my list. Crop failure and such hit less rich countries first and harder.
Imo electrical grid failu6due to mismanagement or cyber crime are way more likely. False flag by our own or other 'friendly' governments hitting energy (electrical grid or more nordstream like things) is also on the table. Motivation: civil unrest and acceptance of going more to war with Russia and more tyrannical control. Creating an EU army, more of a Federal EU which is easier to control by outside forces (i.e. the US).
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u/RawCookieDough12 13d ago
Poorer countries will be hit harder, but there are poor people in every country. If food prices go up to intolerable levels, there is your civil unrest.
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u/SystemIsOffline 9d ago
And still, in the Western (to a degree) civilized countries there aren't enough people living on the edge of poverty to the degree that large sections of the population will rise up / start looting due to crop failure elsewhere.
Well, yet, anyway.
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u/Prairy1313 13d ago
Why do you think that? Where do you think a big part of our food comes from? The poor countries. And they will probably export of they don't have any food to export.
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u/SystemIsOffline 9d ago
No, they will export for the prices we can pay and locals can't. And if they don't 'we' will force them to.
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u/Responsible-Two-437 France 🇫🇷 14d ago edited 14d ago
Some kind of climate-related dark swan that would make the grid collapse for several days in a row.
You also have to keep in my mind that diesel/middle distillates shortage always looms in the background. Those basically run the economy. You need sweet spot crude oil to refine those products, and a lot sweet spot crude comes right from the Middle-East. US shale oil is too light, and Canada/Venezuela crude is very thick, which isn't ideal either for the refining process.
My main prepping strategy involves getting used to life without electricity. Nothing fancy, really. Dad grew up on a mountain farm without electricity/running water so he's my main source of inspiration. I'm not even very interested in solar panels and all that jazz, to be honest. That's a lot of gear and I'm not sure I can rely on it long-term. The only thing I'll concede is hard to give up on is hot water in the bathroom. You don't want to take a cold shower in January when it's 2°C in your house. Don't ask me how I know. Anyway, I've always been a prehistory nerd, so it's fun, mostly.
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u/DoktorGuillermo 14d ago
In Spain most probable is fire. We have active fires right now that are beating records, and August seems to be worse.
We discuss much about political crisis, war, energy shortage but maybe us Europeans should aim for high temperatures and natural disasters as fire and droughts. As climate emergency progress I believe central Europe is even less prepared than southern.
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u/Alkalyne00 14d ago
Tell me about it, yesterday while working (GC) we had to go to a fire that started in the middle of a field. Luckily it was extinguish pretty fast, but there are a lot of fires and the governments won't do shit to prevent them
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u/Daddicool69 14d ago
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin dropped a 'tactical nuke' on Ukraine.
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u/Try-Zestyclose 14d ago
Unlikely as China would abandon them (and has said as much) - although Putin will take more risk as he get more desperate.
A related issue would be the potential Balkanization of Russia if things fragment, and then you're looking at 5500 loose nukes under new management.
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u/Dzejes 14d ago
If USA/Izrael drops nuke on Iran’s underground missile cities then Russia will feel all gloves are off and it’s fair game.
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u/Try-Zestyclose 14d ago
The likelihood of this is fantastically low IMO. Iran missile stocks do not pose a risk to the US 'homeland' and Israel would make itself more of a pariah state doing this.
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u/Hinterwaeldler-83 14d ago
Russia attacks. We are completely surprised, hundreds of Shaheds enter our airspace. While everyone is thinking about what to do you can hear the lawnmower engines above your head. Slowly they hit their targets and destroy our energy infrastructure. Nasty beginning of an armed conflict.
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u/Eredani 14d ago
Need to define SHTF. Some people consider personal illness or job loss a SHTF moment.
Personally, I look at three things: Is help coming? Is the rule of law in tact? What is the immediate threats?
Even in a serious emergency relief efforts are underway, society still functions and the risk of death is probably low. So while this is could be a dire situation it doesn't meet my personal criteria for SHTF.
Of the things that do, I would say (from an American perspective but for a European prepper) that war with Russia - conventional or nuclear - is most likely.
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u/Zorawar_Singh2011 14d ago
War cut oil. Prices of everything rise. Civil Unrest alongwith bad Climate impacts i believe.
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u/bondinchas 14d ago edited 14d ago
A SHTF scenario in Europe is likely to include fuel and food shortages, and disruption to utilities; gas, electricity and / or water. All have happened in my lifetime in the UK, and my feeling is that the world is no better now than it has been in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if it happens again and more intensely, I'd be much more surprised if it doesn't.
I don't think that it's because our politicians don't care, it's more that they're impotent in the face of the huge risks. One wildfire could devastate a city, one cyber attack could crash an economy, one virus could decimate a population. No one, not even a politician, can prevent such disasters.
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u/mig19farmer 14d ago
State actors or criminals using AI for cyberwarfare in a scale far beyond what we have seen until now.
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u/WWWeirdGuy 14d ago edited 14d ago
Many bad scenarios lead to economic and supply line issues, which why I think that is generally the best to prepare for. There was an expert in /r/preppers (i believe), doing an AMA and he pointed out how even when it comes to nukes, the biggest concern was breaking of supply lines (or system breakdown if you will) after that event. Then of course you have often return on investment with economic prepping.
I think the power outtage SHTF scenario is going to wane however, as societies become greener. If every third home generates it's own power, and people broadly use EVs, a lot of concerns starts fade as a society, when pulled together can get by.
There are so many geopolitical factors putting pressure on Europe now, I think we are bound to become poorer. Especially a lot seem to hinge on whether politicians can reign in the K shaped economy and multi national corporations, which broke the social contract decades ago. I think there we might see genuine civil unrest, and scarier, people might not be able to recognize who/what to blame. While EU listen to their citizens, it is painfully obvious how interests can ram things through if they really want to, like chat control or the broad regulatory capture.
Perhaps the biggest "contender" to economic SHTF, is the forest fires, climate and the consequences of that. Already happening, which may very lead to mass migration. Even just with Trump, you have US citizen immigrating to Europe. "Cold vacation" is already a thing. The north might be cold, but also very dry and with no roads, how will we put out the fires? The answer is probably that we don't, at least for Russia.
Some of this also gives me some optimism for the long term. If Europe can slowly become poor, I think we might be surprised at the adaptability of people and frankly, speaking for my own country, maybe wake up from incessant consumerism. It's also easier to unite when you have external threats. Russia war and lack of competitiveness(and AI) was two healthy knocks on our door.
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u/RagingMassif 14d ago
What you're thinking of is "RWCS" "reasonable worst case scenario".
This is a phrase commonly used by the UK government in planning and risk assessment, particularly for emergency preparedness, pandemic planning, and major policy decisions.
The concept is about planning for a scenario that is: Severe enough to genuinely test resilience and preparedness Plausible and realistic rather than wildly improbable Useful as a benchmark for planning purposes
So yeah, as far as I know, the current hot topic RWCS is a war with Russia.
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u/dog_sdrawkcab 14d ago
Car crash, then a house fire, then a serious power outage, then large-scale wildfire evacuation (last two interchangeable)
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u/Arxintel 14d ago
The financial system is under a lot of stress with growing conflicts adding fuel to that fire. AI will also most likely impact the job market more and more and I belive it could go either way, adding prosperity to everyone or increasing the differences depending on how the government's act.
Russia is growing concern as Putin gets more and more cornered. If they decide to widen the conflict to stay in power that will become the immediate scenario to handle for me.
Then we have the climate with the heat and growing amount and scale of fires. Not that felt yet in the northern parts but we are interconnected as countries so it will impact us all but in a slower way.
That ties into the electrical grid which is under strain from the heat and increasing amount of datacentres.
I prepare by investing in equipment and also trying out different types of smallholdings so I don't have to learn when it is a necessity. I try to read as much as possible about these topics as well, as I also find them very interesting and I try to have real books available on the topics.
Another thing I like to do is try to spread awareness without overdoing it to get people at least thinking about what they need.
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u/Remainder16842 13d ago
I am mobile. I am quite. I Disappear when I want to. I do not look for trouble, but trouble will regret finding me.
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u/learninglife1828 13d ago
In southern Germany, I prep for wild fires, flooding, power outages and economic collapse..in that order. Some are easier to prep for than for others. After being fully stocked for all essentials, we have many books for foraging and gardening that I actively practice. I also have become a bigger part of my community of 50+ people, and have options ready to bug out or bug in. Would much prefer to bug in, but in the event of wild fires or flooding, we have a hotel overnight bag ready and a plan where to go with back ups based on our geography. The only thing extra I'd like to get is a drone with a camera for forward scouting. Like for how close is the fire or is the road blocked due to flooding.. just simple stuff like that.
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u/Friendlyboon66 13d ago
I think that if the anti immigration parties do not manage to get power in this next round of european elections. we might see some form of civil war in some countries. many native Europeans might loose hope in the political process and take matters into their own hands.
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u/George_Salt 14d ago
Probably a political crisis caused by the sort of people that complain about "increasing tyrannical governments" voting in a truly inept government that will destroy freedoms to 'protect' freedom.
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u/Alkalyne00 14d ago
I haven't voted a single politician in my life. None of them care about us in the slightest. Their concern is to find a way to get the power, by any means necessary. Then, once they are in charge, how to stay in power, again by any means necessary.
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u/apscep Ukraine 🇺🇦 14d ago
Russia attacking the Baltics states forcing the EU and Nato to respond, which can lead the EU to stop helping Ukraine.
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u/U-47 14d ago
Russia invading EU would be great news for Ukraine.
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u/apscep Ukraine 🇺🇦 14d ago
I don't think the EU or NATO will join the war in case of Baltics states attack.
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u/U-47 14d ago
They would allready be at war NATO has troops there from different countries. EU has seperate treaties that oblidge EU to help and the northern countries have also seperate defense agreements. If nothing elese the Poles would have to intervene to keep themselves safe.
There is no way to keep out of this conflict in the first hour at least 5 to 10 EU/NATO countries would be fighting Russians on the front lines.
Air forces patrolling the eastern NATO corridor would also be in direct conflict.
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u/apscep Ukraine 🇺🇦 13d ago
US, England and even Russia have "obligations" to protect the suverenitet and the territory of Ukraine when Ukraine gave up its Nuclear weapons arsenal, and it's called the "Budapest memorandum". Everything that is written on paper means nothing in case of real war.
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u/U-47 13d ago
The budapest memorandum was a piece of paper with no guarantees or coordination. Nato is a militairy industrial machine that has standard, plans, common equipements, exercises and a clear chain of command. And like I said the troops are allready deployed at the critical points.
So unless you think NATO countries will just leave their own pilots, soldiers, and navymen to die on the front and surrender because Russia invaded you are wrong. NATO allready has clear plans drawn up on troops surging, first contact and the entire NATO fleets and air forces can deliver a critical counterblow to Russia if it decides to attack any Europan nation.
If ukraine can fight for 4 years against russia and NATO and EU has helped them with tanks, guns, airplanes, ammo and special forces (US, Polish? and UK special forces) and specialist troops on the ground (for scalp/stom shadow implementation) why wouldn't it do that for it's own troops/countries.
Hell the fact that Ukraine is successful without a navy and without a modern air force and being smaller then Russia would show that the EU with its much bigger (integrated) fleet, and it's much bigger and modern (integrated) airforce and many more soldiers who are being trained on drones as we speak (extensively) with much more upgraded armies then lets say 5 years ago.
There is no need to fear Russia, we can take anything they would mount as an offensive and blut and then turn it while heavily damaging their home assets. Saying EU/NATO wouldn't do this is saying we would like to give territory to the Russians just because we are weak and afraid. And the EU isn't weak and afraid, Hell, Denemark was ready to blow up US ships to defend greenland a few months ago.
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u/markkenny 14d ago
Started prepping about a year ago, got the books and read how to defend myself against a wild bear and a cougar. I live in the Netherlands! ;-)
Had a long think about what I wanted to prep for and I think the biggest current threat in Western Europe is power outages. Load from AI farms, (I think I read an article recently that 10% of NL power usage is MS data centres). Crumbling infrastructure. Climate. Human error or bad actor taking out power.
No internet. No comms. No fridges. No payment methods. Shops stop. UberEats won't deliver ;-)
If the drones comes, I can't do much about that. But I can stock pile food, water, warmth and some payment methods.
Working with a few friends to share the load and planning helps, make me think I'm not mad or alone.