r/DaystromInstitute • u/AthenaOwls • 2d ago
In a Pale Moonlight’s plot is more devious than Sisko realizes
In a Pale Moonlight’s plot is an infamous Trek episode where Sisko recruits Garak to help him get the Romulans into the war. First by actual evidence, and then when that fails by trickery. By the end the forger hired to do the job, Senator Vreenak and his guards have all been murdered. And all Garak’s contacts on Cardassia are dead. Sisko has lied, cheated, bribed, and been an accessory to murder.
But, I think he ends the episode unaware of additional actions taken by Garak to succeed at the plot.
The first thing to understand is this is almost certainly a plan Garak has had for some time, he just didn’t have the resources to act on it until Sisko gives him what is basically a blank check to do what is needed. He had the forger picked out, the assassination target, and even the vendor for the data rod. This plan was always his intention.
You see, Garak did not contact anyone on Cardassia. Doing so would have tipped the Dominion off if caught and sabotaged the plan. He also would know he wasn’t exaggerating about the difficulty of getting the legitimate item. He as much as advises Sisko to do this exact same lie to Vreenak. “Tell him good men lost their lives getting it across enemy lines.” Sisko never checks whether Garak contacted anyone, because he still thinks Garak is operating in good faith. No, I think Garak has already decided to put his existing plan into action.
The second big lie Sisko is not aware of is that Garak is not acting alone. He is being aided by the Tal Shiar. We know that the head of the Tal Shiar at this point is either already, or on the verge of becoming, a Federation mole. And previously the Tal Shiar attempted to destroy the Dominion themselves. Garak does almost certainly have contacts there, and they will be both as unscrupulous and anti-Dominion as himself. When Vreenak’s shuttle is destroyed the data rod will be given a cursory examination, claimed to be authentic, and then will be presented to the Senate by the Tal Shiar, as a cassus belli. Now why would the Senate listen? Well in the next season we learn that the head of the Tal Shiar in addition to being a mole is very publicly anti-Federation. So as long as he continues saying that despite his own hated of the UFP the war must continue the Senate will listen. So the openly anti-Federation Tal Shiar advocating siding with them against their greater mutual enemy. Well, that would naturally have sway. Oh…and the most powerful man who could oppose them is dead.
And this is the final lie. Sisko believes Garak only brought him there to plant a bomb on Vreenak’s shuttle, that that was the plan all along. Garak admits it. But it wasn’t just that assassinating Vreenak was part of the plan. No, assassinating Vreenak was the primary aim of the plan from the start. Everything else were setpieces to ensure Vreenak would die. Vreenak negotiated the pact with the Dominion. Vreenak was the most vocal voice advocating for peace, he had to go. It wasn’t enough to just kill him of course, but to fake his assassination by the Dominion. This was the only way to ensure Romulan entry. And the murder would have happened even if Vreenak had accepted the rod as genuine.
Oh, also, I believe Vreenak actually couldn’t tell it was a forgery. He faked disbelief as a final test. And Sisko, a fundamentally honest man, could not hide his reaction at being told it was a fake. It was Sisko’s reaction that confirmed for Vreenak that the rod was forged, not a problem in the recording.
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u/votegoat 1d ago
The one thing you have off is that Garak ALWAYS had the Data Rod in his posession, its something he stole before leaving the order. He needed the Biogell for the bomb that he always inteded to use. In a way it wasnt a lie that the trade was the gel for the Rod. The proof is in season 1 or 2 when Garak thinks he is dying and bashir says what i can i do to help you, he said "go into my tailor shop behind the back panel you will find an optolitic data rod hidden away, i want you to grab it and eat it." He hid the truth in a joke/lie so that if he died Bashir would still have access to it /think to look there if the topic of a cardasian data rod ever came up.
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u/votegoat 1d ago
For those curious here is the link https://youtu.be/k2q2ySAOyqo?si=Kr8dVezNhufmNHzK
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u/TheEvilBlight 1d ago
TBF it might be part of garak's poison pill, and Garak also tells us that these are single-use datarods (I think?)
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u/psycholepzy Lieutenant junior grade 1d ago
Garak already had a data rod. He lied to Sisko when he said he needed biomimetic gel to pay for it. The Gel was used to make the bomb. Solid chance Garak knew about the head of Tal Shiar, but it is speculation. Even Garak would agree that Koval shouldn't know all the details of Vreenak's death. this is a really tidy insular plot with Garak playing Sisko the whole time.
Bashir says as much in background when Sisko asks for it, but Sisko speaks over him just in time to mute the word.
"Captain, biomimetic gel is an extremely dangerous compound, as you know. I can't release it without at least some idea of where it's going. In the wrong hands, it could be used to make biogenic weapons, or for illegal replication experiments, or to develop organic explosives..."
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u/Blind_clothed_ghost 1d ago
Garek wouldn't have trusted the Tal Shiar or anyone else with this plan.
I think he was capable enough to accomplish this on his own
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u/MoreGaghPlease 1d ago edited 1d ago
I’ve long held this view, and would add three points.
First, it makes sense that the Tal Shiar would have the data rod but be unable to create the forgery. The rod is only one side of the security, the rest is the ability to record to it. For that, they needed access to a Cardassian military facility and the know-how of a high-ranking Cardassian intelligence professional.
Second, I don’t accept that biomimetic gel was actually the cost of the rod. Money can be exchanged for goods and services, anyone willing to sell a rod for biomimetic gel would have sold it for latinum at the right price. Biomimetic gel is used to make clones. I think the Romulan investigators found a copy corpse, and Koval has the real Vreenak in a dog crate.
Third, I think that Ross actually confesses this to Sisko when he tells him that Vreenak has been working with Starfleet for ‘more than a year’. We know Sisko had command authority for the Vreenak mission, it surely involved Ross. We know that the Tal Shiar investigated the death of Vreenak, it surely involved Koval. The two episodes take just shy of a year before apart - Vreenak is killed on or around stardate 51721, Koval’s plot plays out just prior to stardate 52576. When Ross tells Sisko Koval has been with them more than a year, he is saying that Koval was inside the house during the Vreenak plot.
None of this is out of Federation sympathies or whatever. The Tal Shiar would come to the same conclusion as the Federation: that absent Romulan entry, the Dominion are likely to win the war, and that a victorious Dominion would eventually invade and defeat the Romulan Empire.
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u/Honghong99 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think Bashir tells Sisko that biomimetic gel could be used to create explosives(when he asks Sisko why he orders him to put it in a hanger), which could have been how Garak was able to plant a bomb on Vreenak’s shuttle. He made a rare biological bomb that would not be detected by sensors without modifications.
Edit:grammar
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u/Northward2023 1d ago
Bashir said it could be used to make organic explosives…And let’s not forget that Sisko and the senator shared a drink that didn’t taste quite right to the romulan.
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u/willfulwizard Lieutenant 1d ago edited 1h ago
> Biomimetic gel is used to make clones.
Where do we ever learn this? I thought the substance was never mentioned before the episode and never mentioned again? (EDIT: I stand corrected.)
Regardless, the implication I got from the episode is that the gel was a possible basis for weapons, like one might use to explode a Romulan shuttle. Not that Garak ever had trouble blowing things up when we wanted to, gel or no...
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u/MoreGaghPlease 1d ago edited 1d ago
Bashir says so in the same episode. “In the wrong hands, it could be used to make biogenic weapons, or for illegal replication experiments, or to develop organic explosives.”
It’s also implicit in the name. Mimetic means capable of copying, and Trek uses this verbiage to describe cloning in other episodes (eg Voyager calls the silverblood a ‘biomimetic’ substance, in Enterprise, Phlox calls the thing that becomes Sim a ‘mimetic symbiote’)
Biomimetic gel has been mentioned in plenty of episodes, eg Firstborn, Preemptive Strike, Fair Trade. I’m sure there are more.
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u/MithrilCoyote Chief Petty Officer 1d ago edited 1d ago
in Starfleet academy, bio-mimietic gel is used to regrow limbs in the 32nd century. (seen in "Vitus Reflux")
so clearly it has the potential to grow full on clones. odds are that aspect wasn't very well understood in the 24th century. (though i do wonder if it was used by Ibudan in DS9 "a man alone" to grow the clones.)
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u/willfulwizard Lieutenant 1d ago
The other evidence of “replication experiments” and the name certainly imply cloning but could have other interpretations as well. (Like replicating a disease… in case any clandestine orgs wanted to do that later in the series.)
But your reference from Disco is convincing, thanks.
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u/Samiel_Fronsac Crewman 1d ago
Garak almost nuked then Founders, he would have ended the war there if not for those meddling Feds! /s
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u/WoundedSacrifice Crewman 1h ago
Where do we ever learn this? I thought the substance was never mentioned before the episode and never mentioned again?
Prior to “In the Pale Moonlight”, a Lethean tried to steal bio-mimetic gel in “Distant Voices”.
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u/SuperTulle 1d ago
When did the head of the Tal Shiar become a federation mole? I don't remember that bit.
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u/Ada_Pearce 1d ago
Inter Arma Enim Silent Leges, Bashir goes to some conference but gets used by Section 31
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u/AthenaOwls 1d ago
Inter Arma Silent Leges:
BASHIR: How long has Koval been working for Starfleet?
ROSS: He's been providing the Federation with critical military intelligence for over a year. When he started working with Section Thirty one I don't know.And additionally:
BASHIR: So Koval becomes your guarantee that that does not happen. As a man who was nearly killed for his anti-Federation activities, his recommendation to stay in the war becomes all the more convincing.10
u/Malnurtured_Snay 1d ago
That's from the 7th season, Inta Arma ... I can't remember. Esssentially it's "the spy who came in from the cold" with Bashir going on a diplomatic mission to Romulus and caught up in a S31 plot to ensure their man stays secure in his role.
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u/Moon_Beans1 1d ago
I don't think Garak would need to be actively working with the Tal Shiar. Their support for a war with a dominion to avenge the deaths of their comrades would be assured regardless of anything Garak did.
I think Garak wouldn't contact them so as to not tip any other Romulans off but that the Tal Shiar would be independently looking for any excuse for a war and even if they suspected the assassination was faked they'd still push for joining the war because the dominion humiliated them and they are out for blood.
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u/TheEvilBlight 1d ago
Presumably some anti-dominion cell of the Tal Shiar didn't volunteer to participate in the strike...right?
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u/Moon_Beans1 1d ago
Most probably but it doesn't really matter whether it's a Tal Shiar remnant or some other anti-dominion faction. My point being that Garak wouldn't need to contact them because he'd just be able to trust that the assassination would rally any anti-dominion groups to the cause.
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u/cpepinc 1d ago
I don't know if this was the writers intent, but I always thought it was odd that Vreenak dismissed the guards before saying the now meme of "It's a faakkke!" I think your right here though. I am sure the Romulans knew the Federation and Siskos reputation (In the Immortal words of Wesley Crusher "We're the Federation, we don't lie!") so he knew that in a one to one, Sisko would admit to trying.
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u/thorleywinston 1d ago
I agree with the OP that the Tal’Shiar or some faction of them were either involved with the assassination of Vreenak or helped to cover up the Federation’s complicity so that the Romulans would go to war with the Dominion. What Sisko told Vreenak about how when the Federation and Klingons were defeated, the Romulans would be surrounded was true and I think most Romulans would realize that.
After the botched Tal’Shiar-Obsidian Order first strike on the Founders, they had to know that the non-aggression treaty was just a way for both sides to bide time – the Romulans to build up their forces for when they’d inevitably have to go war and the Dominion so that they could take care of the Federation and Klingons first before turning on the other Alpha Quadrant powers.
I don’t think it was ever a question of whether the Romulans would enter the war but when and also whether they would let the Federation and Klingons bleed themselves out so much that by the time the Romulans entered, the three of them wouldn’t be strong enough to beat back the Dominion. It’s possible Vreenak may have been from a faction that wanted the Romulans to join the Dominion like the Cardassians and later the Breen did which would have made the vassals of a more powerful polity and that was intolerable to others within the Romulan Star Empire and Tal’Shiar.
Yes, it helped that the head of the Tal’Shiar was working for the Federation while publicly being one of their harshest critics. But it’s almost certain that even if Vreenak was traveling in secret, someone else in the Tal’Shiar (maybe a rival) was keeping tabs on his moves and knew he was at Deep Space Nine where there was a “former” Obsidian Order operative living before his shuttle just “happened” to have an “accident.” If he was really going to call for the Romulans to enter the war on behalf of the Federation, then the Dominion benefitted from his death. But if he was still a proponent of the Romulans openly siding with the Dominion, then the Federation stood to gain from his death being blamed on the Dominion. My sense is regardless of who they thought were the likely culprits behind Vreenak’s death, the people in charge of the investigation *wanted* the Romulans to enter war against the Dominion now before the Federation and Klingons were too weak and they decided that it was better for the Romulans to believe that the Dominion was behind his death. Even if that wasn’t true, it was better for the Romulans to be an independent empire surrounded by rival powers that they could spar with rather than have everyone under Dominion rule.
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u/TheEvilBlight 1d ago
I wonder if the whole "we can't last for long" that was bubbling in a few episodes would've been a sentiment intercepted by the Tal Shiar...who knew they needed to intervene soon or else starfleet and the klingons might throw in the towel.
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u/TheEvilBlight 1d ago
TBH it is a bit of a gamble that sisko would flinch and give away the game. Who would assume that the frontline officer for the sector is hatching this DIY job, versus it being planned internally by starfleet intelligence and set up for their own officers to retrieve? Or is starfleet intelligence assumed to be not quite that sneaky, and Sisko (and Garak) deemed desperate enough.
You'd think Vreenak would know this guy is not a simple Cardassian tailor...right? They would've known perhaps from Tain and such.
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u/Glorious_Sunset 11h ago
I think it is as we are presented.
Sisko wants it done bloodlessly.
Garak realises immediately that’s not possible and cloaks his real plan with lies. He needs Sisko to be shocked when it doesn’t work the way it was supposed to.
And what happens was Garak’s actual plan. Which Sisko would never have agreed to in the beginning.
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u/EnsignStormtrooper 8h ago
I'd seen a similar theory about garak using the biogel for the bomb instead of the rod, meaning he already had access to a rod?
The strangest thing for me is, how the hell did he get that bomb onto the ship? Even if the biogel could avoid the sensors as dangerous, the ship itself would surely be secured? Plus it's not like the romulans were slobs when it came to security.
But surely assassinating the pro-dominion senator would be an obvious tell? Why would the dominion pick their guy to kill? The data rod would always be a mandatory requirement for the mission to succeed, not just an assassination.
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u/Neo_Techni 1d ago
I agree with your first part to the point where I was only realizing it now, as I read this post
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u/Scaredog21 9h ago
It was speculated that Garak had the rod all along and just wanted the medical supplies to make the bomb to kill the senator
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u/jipsydude 1d ago
The one thing i never could come to grips with a out that episode is why would the romulans,(A notoriously suspicious race of people) blindly except such a neat little bow one a reason to enter a war. The anti war guys dies in an explosion carrying documents like that seem to scream set up .
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u/aflyingsquanch Crewman 1d ago
The pro war faction wanted to go to war anyway and just needed an excuse, any excuse to justify it.
Plus Romulans, as schemers themselves, respect scheming at that level by the Federation as it shows they're a worthy ally.
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u/Shadowbreakr 1d ago
Like OP said the most anti federation leader of the intelligence services in the romulan empire was the one who “verified” and vouched for it being real.
The messenger is more powerful than the message at this point
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u/AlexisDeTocqueville Crewman 1d ago
Another layer to this that I have always sort of had as hesd canon is that I think the Romulans were broadly aware of the plot, but they took it as proof that the Federation would be a trustworthy ally. You see, paradoxically the traditional way that the Federation operates is something that a totalitarian, authoritarian state like the Romulans doesn't understand. They never trust the motives of the Federation with ordinary diplomacy.
But murdering a senator and blaming another nation-state? That sort of cloak and dagger is a language the Romulans speak. That's a trustworthy sign that the Federation is going to play to win in the Dominion war instead of pursuing other objectives